IMPLEMENTATION OF

RELIABILITY THEORY IN
ENGINEERING ANALYSIS

Reliability based structural codes- The

gradual acceptance by standard writers of
limit states design over the past two
decades has made it possible to develop
probability based design procedures and
common load requirements that can be
used with different construction
technologies.

PROBABILITY BASED LIMIT STATES

DESIGN REQUIRES FOUR BASIC TYPES
* A data based to describe probabilities of
occurrence and intensity
* probabilistic models of strength
* models to describe the response of the
structure
* procedures for computing the reliability
measures.

This process for steel and reinforced

concrete beams design using structural
design standard in common use in the
United States in the late 1970s.
This design strengths and load combination
were chosen for probability based limit
design so that reliabilities for members
would fall within this range for most
ordinary building construction.

Most reliability analysis conducted to date

for general code development purposes
have dealt with individual members where
the limit states and structural data are
relatively well defined . The use of reliability
index rather than a limit state probability
avoids some of the difficulties noted earlier
with the sensitivity of the reliability measure
to the distribution extremes and the scarcity
of data.

SEISMIC PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT

OF NUCLEAR PLANTS
- In contrast to structural code development
a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)
examines the performance of one
engineered facility to a specified set of
hazards.

The seismic hazard is described by a

complementary describing the relation
between a ground shaking parameter and
the probability that is exceeded annually at
the plant site.
The plant logic model relates the failures of
individual structural ,mechanical and
electrical components and system to the
end event.

BARRIERS TO
IMPLEMENTATION
While the mathematical tools for
conducting a risk analysis are at a
reasonably advanced state of development
the results of the risk analysis are not
always robust.

*Lack of data
*Limit state probabilities as a basis for
decision
* Risk of human error on risk assessment

RISK AND RELIABILITY

COMMUNICATION

Risk is an inherent and unavoidable element

of all human activities. The current system
of codes and design procedures has evolve
slowly over time.

MANAGEMENT OF RISK

Is the prime underlying motivation for

using risk and reliability analysis.

Risk analysis provides a framework for

systematically considering what can go
wrong with a complex engineered facility.

One of the most difficult aspects of risk and

reliability management is in interpreting the
measures of risk for the engineering
community not all public at large which
generally is ignorant of such methods.
Risk analysis does not create uncertainty
only a means for dealing with it. Provides a
structured framework for thinking about
how safety and reliability may be
threatened by failures of engineered
facilities to perform an anticipated design..