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Chapter 9

Financial Investments

Chapter Goals

Apply risk and return principles to investments.


Develop an overall asset allocation.
Evaluate the factors that enter into investing in
financial assets.
Relate financial investing to overall household
operations.
Recognize how portfolio management differs from
individual asset selection.
Distinguish among investment alternatives.
Utilize leading ways of measuring investment risk.

Overview

The planning system for asset allocation includes the


following steps:

Establish goals.
Consider personal factors.
Include capital market factors.
Identify and review investment alternatives.
Evaluate specific investment considerations.
Employ portfolio management principles.
Implement portfolio management decisions.
Review and update the portfolio.

We will consider each in turn.

Establish Goals

Goals are determined by our needs and the things


and activities that we enjoy.
Once we have established our goals we are in
position to identify the role savings and investments
play in the process.
Investments can be viewed as a delivery mechanism:
they help create sufficient assets to fund our goals.
Our investment focus is on the appropriate asset
allocation to help meet our goals.

Consider Personal Factors

Personal considerations include:

Time Horizon for Investments.


Liquidity Needs.
Current Available Resources.
Projected Future Cash Flows.
Taxes.
Restrictions: limitations on freedom of choice in investment
alternatives or investment practices.
Risk Tolerance: The amount of risk you are willing to
undertake.

Consider Personal Factors, cont.

We can group goals for investment purposes into


five time horizons:

Include Capital Market Factors

We have established the goals and the distinguishing


features of individuals.
At the same time, we need to examine the
characteristics of the overall financial markets and of
the various types of securities likely to be considered
for the asset allocation.
We begin by discussing two of the most basic
characteristics of finance: risk and return.

Return

Return is the total of income and growth of monies


invested over a period of time.

Return, cont.

Time-weighted returns give effect to how long you


have owned a security and the timing of income
payments during that period.
The internal rate of return (IRR) is often used to
obtain this return.
By a bond that is expected to be held until it matures,
the IRR is also known as the yield to maturity (YTM).

Risk

Risk, is the chance of loss on an investment.


Types of risk for financial assets:

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Market: The risk of a decline in the overall stock or bond market.


Liquidity: The risk of receiving a lower than market price upon
sale of your holding.
Economic: The risk of unfavorable business conditions caused
by weakness in the overall economy.
Inflation: The risk of an unexpected rise in prices that reduces
purchasing power.

(Continues next slide).

Risk, cont.

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Political: The risk of a change in government or governmental policy


adversely affecting operations.
Regulatory: The risk of a shift in regulatory policy impacting activities.
Currency: The extra risk in international activities arising from
currency fluctuations.
Technological: The risk of obsolescence of a product line or inputs in
producing it.
Preference: The risk of a shift in consumer taste.
Other Industry: The risks other than the ones given above that affect
companies in an industry.
Company: The operating and financial risks that apply to a particular
firm.

Risk, cont.

The wider the fluctuations around its average price,


the greater the stocks risk.
The most common measurement of price fluctuation
is the standard deviation.
Hence, stocks can have identical mean returns and
different risks:
Stock Price

Company A
Company B

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Time

Risk, cont.

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The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is a


specialized modern investment theory model that is
based on risk-return principles.
Under the CAPM, risk is measured using price
change of a security relative to a benchmarks price
performance.
The benchmark for large company stocks is usually
the S&P 500, the Standard and Poors index of the
500 largest companies in the United States.

Risk, cont.

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The CAPM risk measurement is the beta coefficient.


The greater the price fluctuation of a security
relative to the benchmarks movements, the greater
the securitys beta coefficient.
The benchmark is automatically given a beta of 1
and stocks or mutual funds of stocks having a beta
coefficient of greater than 1 are deemed to have
more risk than the market, while those having a
beta of less than 1 have below average risk.

Risk, cont.

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The beta coefficient measures systematic risk.


Systematic risk: The risk of overall market factors.
Unsystematic risk: Risk related to an individual
company.
CAPM says individual company risk can be
diversified away when you hold a large portfolio of
securities.
Therefore, CAPM says that all you need to know is
systematic risk as measured by the beta coefficient.

Expected Rate of Return


Expected Rate
of Return

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Risk-Free Rate

Risk Premium

Risk premium: The extra return that compensates you


for the additional amount of risk you are taking with a
particular security over a completely safe one.
The risk-free rate is the rate of return you require
even if there is no risk. The yield on 30-day U.S.
Government Treasury Bills is generally used.

Risk - Return Tradeoff

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The more risky the security, the greater the risk


premium and the greater the expected or required
rate of return.

The Efficient Market Hypothesis

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The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) says that the best


valuation for an individual security is its current market price.
A major conclusion of the EMH is that it will not be profitable
to attempt to outperform the market.
Even if there are those not fully informed or capable of
appraising shares, and their actions could create particularly
appealing prices, other investors would quickly step in to
take advantage.
By doing so these investors would eliminate any aboveaverage profit opportunities.

The Efficient Market Hypothesis, cont.

Three forms of the EMH:

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The Weak Form: Looking at current and past information


on stock price patterns and the number of shares traded is
not useful.
The Semi-Strong Form: All publicly available information is
incorporated in a stocks price. The
Strong Form: The share prices fully reflect both public and
private information.

Mean Reversion and Efficient Markets

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Mean reversion: Returns for securities tend to move


toward average performance when returns are
examined over longer time frames.
Therefore, if securities underperform for a period, they
may be more likely to outperform later on.
When their results are highly favorable for a period of
time, they can be vulnerable to poor returns in the period
beyond.
Thus, in contrast to efficient markets beliefs, future stock
price movements may be somewhat predictable.

Identify and Review Investment


Alternatives
Bonds
Bonds: Contracts in which an investor lends money to a
borrower. As compensation for receiving the money, the
borrower agrees to pay interest.
Maturity date: The date that the loan is to be repaid.
Bonds are relatively safe investments as:

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The annual income is generally fixed in advance.


The principal is likely to be fully repaid on the stated date.
The company will be faced with bankruptcy if it defaults, at which time
bondholders have priority in receiving the proceeds from liquidation of
business assets.

Identify and Review Investment


Alternatives, cont.
Common Stocks (Equities)
A common stockholder is an owner, and is entitled to
participate in the current profits and anticipated future
growth of the enterprise.
Stocks present potentially higher returns than bonds,
but the shareholder must be prepared to take greater
risk.
We categorize common stocks based on relative growth
rates, sector and industry, geographic area, company
size, and quality.
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Identify and Review Investment


Alternatives, cont.

Relative Growth Rates

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Growth stocks: Companies that grow more rapidly in sales


and earnings than the overall economy and are less
affected by cyclical business conditions.
Defensive stocks: Companies that generally grow at
average or below-average rates but are also less affected
by business conditions.
Cyclical stocks: Firms whose growth rates are at or below
those for the overall economy but whose operations are
highly sensitive to aggregate business conditions.

Identify and Review Investment


Alternatives, cont.

Sector and Industry

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Economic sectors include basic materials, capital goods,


consumer cyclicals, consumer noncyclicals, energy,
financial, healthcare, services, technology, transportation,
and utility.
Each sector, in turn, is divided into a number of industries.
For example, consumer cyclicals would include among
others autos, consumer appliances, and retail chains.
Since sectors tend to share some similar characteristics,
some active managers use these categories and industries
to decide which areas to over- or underemphasize.

Identify and Review Investment


Alternatives, cont.

Geographic Area

Company Size

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One may wish to invest in faster-growing sections of the


U.S. or in parts of the world that present potentially more
rapid growth rates than the U.S.
Larger companies are generally more secure, often having
entrenched positions in major markets.
Smaller companies can be more flexible since they may
have more entrepreneurial management, but may be risky.
Medium sized companies are a blend of the previous two.

Identify and Review Investment


Alternatives, cont.

Quality

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Quality measure how confident we are that the anticipated


prospects for a company will be fulfilled.
High quality (blue chips ) companies are likely to be large and have
a strong position in their markets.
Often they have good returns on investment and are less likely to
have large noneconomic related disappointments in earnings.
Speculative investments are companies whose operations are less
predictable, their profitability more precarious with current or
potential losses possible.
Sometimes these companies have a large amount of debt in
relation to the value of their equity.

Identify and Review Investment


Alternatives, cont.

Mutual Funds
Combine stock or bond assets for investors who receive
centralized administration and investment management.
Year

Industry Net Assets


(billions of dollars)

Stock Funds
Bond Funds
Total1
1970
45.1
2.5
47.6
1975
37.5
4.7
45.9
1980
44.4
14.0
134.8
1985
111.3
122.7
495.4
1990
239.5
291.3
1,065.2
1995
1,249.1
598.9
2,811.3
2000
3,961.9
811.2
6,964.7
2004
4,384.1
1,290.3
8,106.9
1
Hybrid and money market funds are also included in total.
Source: Investment Company Institute, Mutual Fund Fact Book 42nd ed.

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Total Number of Funds

361
426
564
1,528
3,079
5,725
8,155
8,044

Identify and Review Investment


Alternatives, cont.

Mutual Funds, cont.


Mutual fund characteristics include strengths and
weaknesses.
Strengths:

Expertise.
Low Cost.
Diversification. Low Minimum Investment.
Professional Recordkeeping.
General Information.
Safety. Daily Pricing.
Reinvestment and Payout.

Weaknesses:

Cost.

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Performance.

Tax.

Liquidity.

Identify and Review Investment


Alternatives, cont.

Mutual Fund Classification System


Size: Small, medium, and large size categories, based
on the overall stock market worth of the companies in
the mutual fund.

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Smaller capitalization companies provide greater potential


returns, but also have greater risk.
Larger capitalization companies have more consistency of
performance and lower company fundamental and stock market
risk.
Medium capitalization companies provide a blend of the other
two categories.

Identify and Review Investment


Alternatives, cont.

Mutual Fund Classification System, cont.


Investment Style: Growth, value, and blend.

Growth style of investing involves selecting companies that are


expected to have rapid growth in revenues and earnings per share.

Value style of investing emphasizes price in making purchase


decisions. The manager looks for companies that are out of favor
or otherwise mispriced in relation to their outlook for earnings
growth.
The blend category may entail a manager who moves from value
to growth style or buys a mix of the two, or a style of investing that
cannot be defined in value or growth terms.

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Evaluate Specific Investment


Considerations

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Passive approach to investing: No attempt is made to


receive greater than market returns.
Proponents believe efforts can better be used to
diversify in order to reduce risk and keep costs low.
Passive investors tend to purchase index mutual funds
of all types.
Active approach to investing: changes are made in
holdings over time to take advantage of new
opportunities. Based on the belief that it is possible to
outperform the market.

Evaluate Specific Investment


Considerations, cont.

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Individual securities purchased by the household


involve no fund-overhead expenses and allow one to
buy and sell for tax planning purposes.
Mutual funds offer professional advice at reasonable
cost, the ability to delegate the investment
management and recordkeeping function, and simple
diversification with low investment minimums by
specialists.
Although there are notable exceptions, the majority of
mutual funds underperform the market.

Employ Portfolio Management


Principles

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Portfolio: a grouping of assets held by an individual or a


business.
A portfolio is more than the sum of its parts because the
individual assets are often related to each other.
A portfolio that holds a diversified grouping of assets can
be said to be attractively balanced and not easily
influenced by events other than those that affect overall
markets.
Under portfolio theory we strive to achieve the highest
return we can, given the risk we are willing to undertake.

Employ Portfolio Management


Principles, cont.

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Portfolio return is the sum of the returns for each security


multiplied by the weighting it has in the portfolio.
The correlation coefficient measures the degree to which
investment in a portfolio is related to other investments in
that portfolio.
By reducing correlations we lessen price fluctuations and
overall risk in the portfolio.
Under Markowitz, forecasts of return, risk, and
correlation are combined to form what is called the
mean-variance model.

Employ Portfolio Management


Principles, cont.

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Total Portfolio Management (TPM) is a model of the


individual household.
It proposes that households make investment decisions
based not only on marketable financial securities but on
all assets that it possesses.
Under TPM, all household assets interact and their
correlations are taken into account.
Investment decisions that are made incorporate
individual asset returns, risks, and the degree to which
they are correlated.

Implement Portfolio Management


Decisions

We implement portfolio management decisions


through the following steps:

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Establish an active or passive management style: Active


management requires belief that changes can add to
portfolio performance. Passive management makes no
attempt to anticipate future events.
Construct a strategic asset allocation: the normal portfolio
makeup over the longer term
Develop a tactical asset allocation: modifies the breakdown
of the portfolio to attempt to profit from current
circumstances.

Implement Portfolio Management


Decisions, cont.

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Select individual assets: the goal is to select the assets


that provide the highest returns for the overall risk taken.
Finalize and implement the portfolio: Questions to ask
include:
Is the portfolio consistent with the overall tolerance for
risk?
Can risk be reduced with little sacrifice in return?
Am I properly diversified and will my portfolio produce
attractive returns?

Review and update the portfolio

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As time moves on, the economic outlook and


relative valuations change, as do household
circumstances.
Both passive and active investors must take into
account current actual allocations relative to
strategic ones and consider making changes.
Active investors may want to purchase newly
attractive securities and sell old ones that no longer
fit performance requirements.

Review and update the portfolio, cont.

A performance evaluation should answer the


following questions:

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How did I do?


What were the reasons for the under or overperformance?
What can I do to improve future performance?

The evaluation should also be done when


examining a potential future holding, as, for
example, a mutual fund.

Chapter Summary

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Financial assets consist primarily of stocks, bonds, and


mutual funds.
Having an appropriate asset allocation is the goal of
most investors.
Important personal factors in asset allocations include
time horizon, liquidity needs, available current
resources, projected future resources, taxes,
restrictions, and risk tolerance.
Risk and return are a basic finance concept. In theory
the two factors move in proportion.

Chapter Summary, cont.

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A securities expected rate of return includes the risk free


rate plus a risk premium.
The efficient market hypothesis indicates that efforts to
systematically outperform the market will be
unsuccessful.
Mean reversion indicates that there may be patterns in
stocks that can lead to outperformance.
Portfolio management looks at all financial investments
overall in making decisions, and the Markowitz approach
includes correlations among them.

Chapter Summary, cont.

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Total Portfolio Management incorporates all assets


and liabilities and includes correlations in its riskreturn framework.
A strategic asset allocation looks at investment
policy over the long term while at tactical one makes
cyclical changes based on opportunities at the time.