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Decision Analysis
Introduction
Decision
Introduction
Possibilities
Certainty
Uncertainty
Risk
to consider
Mathematical Expectation
(ME) or Expected Value (EV)
It
Computation of EV
Let
If
Example 1
A
EV
= (0.50)(6) + (0.50)(-4) = P1
This
Example 2
Consider
the
following
game
of
chance.
Mark pays P200 and roll a fair die. Then
Example 2 - Solution
Example 3
The
Example 3 - Solution
The
P1
= 30% X1 = 3.5
P2 = 70% X2 = -2.5
This
EV = -0.7
Decision-making Under
Certainty
The
Best
alternative
profits
Lowest payoff if the payoffs are expressed as
costs.
Example
Low
High
Small Capacity
300
370
Large Capacity
180
900
Example
The
P300,000
facility)
Managers
Decision-making Under
Uncertainty
Conditions
rules:
1.
Pessimistic Approach
Choose the alternative that is the best of the worst.
It takes into account only the worst possible outcome
for each alternative.
Maximization : maximin
Minimization : minimax
Maximin
Example: Refer to the previous table
Alternative
Small facility
Large facility
P300,000
Worst Payoff
300
180
Decision-making Under
Uncertainty
Conditions
2. Optimistic
best of the best
go for it strategy that has high expectations
Maximization : maximax
Minimization : minimin
Decision-making Under
Uncertainty
Conditions
3.
Laplace
Decision-making Under
Uncertainty
4. Minimax Regret
Choose the alternative with the best worst
regret.
It seeks to minimize the difference between
the given payoff and the best payoff for each
state of nature.
For profit: Regret Value = Highest column
entry-every column entry
For cost: Regret Value=Entry every columnlowest column entry
MINIMAX REGRET
Regret
Alternative
Low
Demand
High
Demand
Maximum
Regret
Small
facility
300-300=0
900370=530
530
Large
facility
300180=120
900-900=0
120
Pick
EV
chance event
EV - Example
Which
Low
High
EV
Small Facility
300
370
0.4(300)+0.6(370)
=342
Large Facility
180
900
0.4(180)+0.6(900)
=612
The
Decision Tree
A
Composed
Decision Tree
Two
types of nodes
a square
a circle
The
Decision Tree
P = 0.70
P = 0.60
success
60,000-5000
contract awarded
prepare
failure
-15,000-5,000
not awarded
0.30
not prepare
P = 0.40 -5,000
P=
Decision Tree
Compute
position.
EV
= 0.70(55,000) + 0.30(-20,000)
= 32,500
EV = 0.60(32,500)
= 17,500
+ 0.40(-5,000)
Decision Tree
55,000
32,50
P=0.60
0
contract awarded
P17,50
0
success P=0.70
prepare
failure
P=0.30
-20,000
not awarded
P=0.40 -5,000
not prepare
Once
EVPI
EVPI - Example
EVPI = P688-P612=P76
is
Engrande Lechon
Exercises
Alternatives
Good Market
(PhP)
Ave. Market
(PhP)
Bad Market
(PhP)
Small Shop
85,000
20,000
-30,000
Medium-sized
shop
120,000
45,000
-70,000
No shop
Probabilities
0.20
0.50
0.30