Professional Documents
Culture Documents
OF PHOTOVOLTAIC
SYSTEMS BASED ON WEATHER
CLASSIFICATION
AND SUPPORT VECTOR
MACHINES
Guided by:
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Mrs. Aiswarya
Asst.professor
Department of EEE
submitted by:
roll no 17
CONTENTS
Introduction
Photovoltaic system power output characteristics
Support vector machine
PV power output forecasting model based on
weather classification
Data preprocessing
Support Vector Machine Model
Forecasting Accuracy Evaluation
ForecasResult and Discussionting
Conclusion
References
INTRODUCTION
PV is a method of generating electrical power by
converting solar radiation into direct current
electricity using semiconductors
PV technology has been improved significantly
and its application crosses different aspects of life
there are two frequently used approaches for PV
output forecasting:
one is based on the sunshine intensity
method (indirect methods)
the other one is based on the system output
(direct methods)
subject to
yi ( (xi) + b) 1 i, 0, i = 1, . . . , C > 0.
DATA PREPROCESSING
SVM is a nonlinear model that maps the
nonlinear model input to a higher space to make
it linear
Data with wider range will generate imprecise
data fitting and cause the regression to reduce
precision
If the data is preprocessed into a smaller range
before it is inputted into the model, the precision
can be increased.
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FORECASTING ACCURACY
EVALUATION
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CONCLUSION
This paper presented a novel model for one-day-ahead PV
power output forecasting based on the principle of SVM
and the characteristic of weather classification.
a) Based upon correlation analysis, the time series of
PV power output data in the test period are classified
into four groups based on the local weather report.
b) Four SVM models are set up according to
algorithm principle and data samples characteristics
including maximum, minimum,
and mean
temperature of different weather classification. After
the case study, the forecasting errors of the proposed
model are 2.10 MW (RMSE) and 8.64% (MRE), for the
sample PV installation. The approach shows promising
results for the application of SVM model in PV power
output forecasting.
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REFERENCES
[1] L. Q. Liu, Z. X. Wang, H. Q. Zhang, and Y. C. Xue, Solar energy
development in ChinaA review, Renewable Sustainable Energy
Rev., vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 301311, Jan. 2010.
[2] Q. Li, The analysis of Solar photovoltaic power generation
market, Adv. Mater. Ind., vol. 8, pp. 1822, 2009.
[3] T. Muneer, M. Gul, and H. Kambezedis, Evaluation of an all-sky
meteorological radiation model against long-term measured
hourly data, Energy Convers. Manage., vol. 39, no. 3/4, pp. 303
317, Feb./Mar. 1998.
[4] Y. Lin, The model of the solar radiation energys establishment
and verification, J. Anhui Inst. Archit. Ind., vol. 15, no. 5, pp. 44
46, May 2007.
[5] D. Heinemann, E. Lorenz, and M. Girodo, Forecasting of solar
radiation, in Proc. IEEE Int. Symp. Ind. Electron., 2008, pp.
15371541.
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