Affinity Diagram

Decision and Risk Analysis

Decision Analysis Process

IdentifyProblem
IdentifyObjectives
(values)
IdentifyAlternatives
DecomposeandModelProblem
Structure
Uncertainty
Preference
ChooseBestAlternative
SensitivityAnalysis
More
Yes
Analysis
Needed
No
MakeRecommendation
Decision and Risk Analysis

Affinity Diagrams

An Affinity Diagram is a tool that gathers large

amounts of language data (ideas, opinions, issues)
and organizes them into groupings based on their
natural relationships
Affinity process is often used to group ideas
generated by Brainstorming
Method:
1.
2.

3.
4.

State the issue to be examined in broad terms, such as an open

ended question or statement.
Generate and record ideas using Post-it notes. Begin sticking
them on a wall or large sheet of chart paper, in no particular
order, and where everyone can see them
Arrange the notes in related or similar groupings
Choose a word or phrase that captures the intent of each group
and place it at the top
as a category name or title
Decision and Risk Analysis

Example
Selecting courses for Summer

Decision and Risk Analysis

Brainstorming- Step 1
Selecting courses for Summer
Generate Ideas

Decision and Risk Analysis

Display Ideas -Step 2

Selecting courses for Summer
Time of the day

Day of the week

Cost of credit
Cost of books

Difficulty level

Decision and Risk Analysis

Professor

Sort Ideas into Groups -Step 3

Selecting courses for Summer
Time of the day

Day of the week

Cost of credit

Cost of books

Decision and Risk Analysis

Professor

Difficulty level

Create Headers -Step 4

Selecting courses for Summer

Time

Cost

Decision and Risk Analysis

Quality

Draw the final Affinity Diagram Step 5

Selecting courses for Summer

Time

Time of the day

Day of the week

Cost

Cost of books

Cost of credit

Decision and Risk Analysis

Quality

Professor

Difficulty level

Decision Analysis Process

IdentifyProblem
IdentifyObjectives
(values)
IdentifyAlternatives
DecomposeandModelProblem
Structure
Uncertainty
Preference
ChooseBestAlternative
SensitivityAnalysis
More
Yes
Analysis
Needed
No
MakeRecommendation
Decision and Risk Analysis

Value Focused Thinking

Chapter 6

Structuring Decisions
Chapter 3

Affinity Diagram

Quantitative value hierarchy model

Decision and Risk Analysis

Value Focused Thinking

Decision and Risk Analysis

Where are we going?

Our goal is to build a Value Function
Quantifies the benefit that we get from implementing a decision
alternative
Type of utility function
Typically maps anticipated benefit to a dimensionless number (utility)
Used for comparison purposes (which alternatives do more to give the
decision make what he/she wants)
Can be used as an objective function for optimization

Helps overcome the things that make a decision hard to

make
First step in building a value function is to identify the
DMs values
Decision and Risk Analysis

Values
Values Those things that are important to a decision
maker, things that they care about
Values are fundamental to all we do
Values should drive decisions

Decision and Risk Analysis

Identifying Values
Interact with decision makers
Elicit feedback throughout design process or analysis
Values are stated through objectives
3 Features of objectives
(1) Decision Context
(2) Object
(3) Direction of Preference
ex. Forest products company wants to minimize environmental
impact
(1) Decision Context - Harvesting Trees
(2) Object - Environmental Impact
(3) Direction of Preference - Minimum is best

Decision and Risk Analysis

Wheredoesthinkingaboutvalueslead?

Improving
Commun
ication

Evaluating
alternatives

Uncover
hidden
objectives

Creating
alternatives

Value
Focused
Thinking

Identify
Decision
Opportun
ities

Guiding
Strategic
Thinking

Involving
Multiple
DMs
Guiding
Information
Collection

Inter
connecting
decisions

Keeney, Ralph L., Value-Focused Thinking: A Path To Creative Decision making, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1992, pp. 3-28.

Decision and Risk Analysis

Ways to Identify Values

-Professor Gregory Parnell, USMA

Gold Standard: based on an approved vision, policy,

strategy, planning, or doctrine document
Values have been thought about, discussed, and written down
We use work that has already been done and approved

Platinum Standard: based on interviews with decisionmakers and stakeholders

Often difficult to get enough time with stakeholders and DMs
Use Affinity Diagram for group settings (will discuss later)

Silver Standard: uses data provided by stakeholder

representatives
When real DMs and stakeholders are not available
Still use Affinity Diagrams for groups

Combined Standard: combination of the above

Decision and Risk Analysis

Process of Identifying Values

1. Research potential Gold Standard documents

Recognize that environment might have changed

Results of research must be validated with DMs

2. Interview Stakeholders and/or Decision Makers

Validate Gold Standard work

If none, elicit values directly

3. Interact with lower level representatives as necessary

Fill in the blanks

Make sure you are consistent with thoughts of DMs

4. Combine above as necessary

Note: always check regularly with the decision makers or
reps!
Decision and Risk Analysis

Structuring Objectives
Initial list has non-objectives
Alternatives
Constraints
Criteria for evaluation
Convert non-objectives into objectives
Means objectives
Fundamental objectives
Why is each important?
Means Objective: similar to smaller objectives that lead
to the fundamental objective
Fundamental Objective: Main objective
Decision and Risk Analysis

Values help guide strategic thinking

Fundamental
Objective
Means Obj 1

Means Obj 2

Means Obj 3

Strategic objectives should guide our decision-making

Strategic objectives are stable over time although the
means to obtain these objectives vary over time.
Decision and Risk Analysis

My professional values help guide my

strategic planning
Fundamental Objective

Be an internationally recognized Military OR

Analyst and Professor

Be an excellent teacher
& mentor

Publish important research

& be in demand as consultant

Perform significant
professional service

Means Objectives
Decision and Risk Analysis

Affinity Diagrams Example

Scenario: The Global War on Terrorism has continued. Intelligence sources

indicate that a country (Red), that is a known supporter of terrorism, is
developing a Weapons capability at a facility in a populated urban area.
After diplomatic discussions failed to have an impact on the leadership of
Red, Blue (NATO) decides to send a message by an attack that will disrupt
operations of the weapons facility.
NATO Commanders Intent: The combatant commander has decided to
attack the electrical power grid to achieve the effect of disrupting the
operations of the weapons facility. The commanders intent is that the
attack should be non-attributable to Blue, that the effects of the attack
should be for a short duration (to preclude a long term disruption to Reds
economy), and that the attack should not result in Red civilian casualties.
Analysis Methodology: The leader of the combatant commanders analysis
cell has decided to use Value-Focused Thinking to develop an Effect Based
Operations value model for targeting course of action evaluations.
Decision and Risk Analysis

Affinity Diagrams Example

(continued)

Fundamental Objective: The fundamental objective is to develop the

best COA to achieve the commanders intent.
Value Model Standard. Since our research found three Gold Standard
documents, we used the Combined Standards approach. The three
Gold Standard documents used were:
JP 3-60, Joint Doctrine for Targeting, 7 January 2002
JP 3-13, Joint Doctrine for Information Operations, 8 October 1998
JP 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations Doctrine, 10 September 2001

Data for Affinity Diagrams. Focus research on verb-object

combinations that defined the targeting objectives from the Gold
Standard documents and additional research

Decision and Risk Analysis

Affinity Diagrams Example

(continued)

Decision and Risk Analysis

Affinity Diagrams Example

(continued)

Decision and Risk Analysis

Affinity Diagrams Example

(continued)

Decision and Risk Analysis

Affinity Diagrams Example

(continued)
Resulting Qualitative Value Model

Decision and Risk Analysis

In summary

Decision and Risk Analysis

General Qualitative Value Model

(Value Hierarchy)
Fundamental
Objective
Function 1
Objective 2.1

Function 2
Objective 2.2

Evaluation
Measure 2.2.1

Function 3
Objective 2.3

Evaluation
Measure 2.2.2

There can be multiple tiers or levels so that the problem can be

subdivided into small enough pieces
At the bottom tier are the attributes or measures or metrics that are
used to quantify achievement in the objectives
Use terms most appropriate for the domain
Decision and Risk Analysis

Building a Qualitative Value

Model
Step 1: Identify the fundamental objective
Step 2: Identify functions that provide value
Step 3: Identify the objectives that define value
Step 4: Identify the value measures
Decision and Risk Analysis

Overall Method We Will Employ

Start with values (not alternatives)
Generate better alternatives based on values
Evaluate alternatives using values
This is the Value Focused Thinking (VFT) Philosophy
Multiple Objective Decision Analysis is the mathematical
technique used to implement VFT
Also called:
Multiple Attribute Utility Theory
Multiple Attribute Value Theory
Multiple Attribute Preference Theory
Decision and Risk Analysis