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What is PACT?
PACT is intended to be an open-source,
engineer-friendly, software system coded
entirely in VB 6.0 and Fortran.
It is a small part of a very large effort
(ATC-58)
PACT is an implementation of the PEER
PBEE methodology
Probability of
Death
Dollars
Downtime
Correlation of Damage
Correlation of Damage
PACT is a product still under development and every thing about it changes
several times everyday.
What I show you is basically the Enhanced Assessment Option. I comment on
where and how the Basic Assessment Option would be different
For complete legal jargon, see me after this session.
We have the informed consent of the audience. Proceed!
A demonstration of PACT as is
now
Scenario-based assessments
what are the chances of experiencing more than
$10M damage from a M6 on the San Andreas
Fault?
Time-based assessment
what are the chances of losses exceeding a given
amount, over a given time period?
Development of Next-Generation Performance-
Time-based Assessment
You already saw
how intensity and
scenario based
assessments are
done.
For time-based
assessment, the
user is asked to
upload or enter a
hazard curve.
Development of Next-Generation Performance-
Time-based Assessment
Then the user is asked to
associate a set of previous
runs with particular points
on the hazard curve.
PACT then performs
integrations generating a
loss surface and
annualized loss curves.
Annualized loss curves
may be combined and
manipulated exactly as
other loss curves.
Thank you.