CASE STUDY

FINANCIAL PLANNING WITH

SIMULATION
Aprila Wiguna
2401150016

Creative Infographic
INFORMASI
Current Asset $ 1.000.000
AWAL

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Current age 65
Desired retirement salary $ 60.00
Expected ROI 10%
Life expectancy is age 95
Expected ROI 10%
Company Name - Presentation

Rencana
Jika henry wafat pada usia 95 tahu
deterministic

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Year

Return
Beginning
Withdraw Ending
(%)
balance
al
balance
1
10%
1,000,000 60,000.00 1,034,000.00
2
10%
1,034,000 61,800.00 1,069,420.00
3
10%
1,069,420 63,654.00 1,106,342.60
4
10%
1,106,343 65,563.62 1,144,856.88
5
10%
1,144,857 67,530.53 1,185,058.98
6
10%
1,185,059 69,556.44 1,227,052.79
7
10%
1,227,053 71,643.14 1,270,950.62
8
10%
1,270,951 73,792.43 1,316,874.01
9
10%
1,316,874 76,006.20 1,364,954.58
10
10%
1,364,955 78,286.39 1,415,335.01
11
10%
1,415,335 80,634.98 1,468,170.03
12
10%
1,468,170 83,054.03 1,523,627.60
13
10%
1,523,628 85,545.65 1,581,890.14
14
10%
1,581,890 88,112.02 1,643,155.93
15
10%
1,643,156 90,755.38 1,707,640.60
16
10%
1,707,641 93,478.04 1,775,578.81
17
10%
1,775,579 96,282.39 1,847,226.07
18
10%
1,847,226 99,170.86 1,922,860.73
102,145.9
19
10%
1,922,861
8 2,002,786.22
105,210.3
20
10%
2,002,786
6 2,087,333.45
108,366.6
21
10%
2,087,333
7 2,176,863.45
111,617.6
22
10%
2,176,863
7 2,271,770.35
114,966.2
23
10%
2,271,770
0 2,372,484.56
118,415.1
24
10%
2,372,485
9 2,479,476.31
121,967.6
25
10%
2,479,476
5 2,593,259.53
125,626.6
26
10%
2,593,260
8 2,714,396.14
129,395.4

Company Name - Presentation

Inflasi 3%
Withdrawal awal 60.000 dan
meningkat 3% tiap tahun
Rata-rata stock market 10%
Portofolio $ 3.285.670,46

Actual Return

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Return
Year
(%)
1
-20%
2
-10%
3
9%
4
8%
5
12%
6
-10%
7
-2%
8
25%
9
27%
10
61%
Average
10%

Return aktual berbeda setiap

Tahun dalam 10 tahun
Rata-rata dari return dalam
10 tahun adala 10%

Company Name - Presentation

Portofolio Balance
Analysis Rata-rata return 10%

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Return
(%)

Beginning
balance

-20%

1,000,000

-10%

752,000

9%

621,180

8%

607,703

12%

585,511

-10%

580,138

-2%

459,523

25%

380,123

27%

382,913

61%

389,771

Withdraw
al
60,000.0
0
61,800.0
0
63,654.0
0
65,563.6
2
67,530.5
3
69,556.4
4
71,643.1
4
73,792.4
3
76,006.2
0
78,286.3
9

Ending
balance

752,000.00
621,180.00

Portofolio balance di 10 tahun

607,703.34
Adalah $501.490,82
585,510.90
580,138.01

Withdrawal 60.000 pada setiap tahun

Dan meningkat 3% tahunan
380,122.67
459,523.41

382,912.80
389,771.37
501,490.82

Company Name - Presentation

Reversed Return

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Return
(%)
61%
27%
25%
-2%
-10%
12%
8%
9%
-10%
-20%

Rata-rata return 10%

Beginning
balance

Withdraw
Ending
al
balance
60,000.0 1,513,400.0
1,000,000
0
0
61,800.0 1,843,532.0
1,513,400
0
0
63,654.0 2,224,847.5
1,843,532
0
0
65,563.6 2,116,098.2
2,224,848
2
0
67,530.5 1,843,710.9
2,116,098
3
1
69,556.4 1,987,053.0
1,843,711
4
0
71,643.1 2,068,642.6
1,987,053
4
5
73,792.4 2,174,386.7
2,068,643
3
4
76,006.2 1,888,542.4
2,174,387
0
8
78,286.3 1,448,204.8
1,888,542
9
7

Portofolio balance di 10 tahun

Adalah $1.448.207.87

Withdrawal 60.000 pada setiap tahun

Dan meningkat 3% tahunan

Company Name - Presentation

Return analysis tanpa

withdrawals

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Return
(%)

Beginning
balance

Withdraw Ending
al
balance

-20%

1,000,000

800,000.00

-10%

800,000

720,000.00

9%

720,000

Simulasi dimana Henry tidak pernah meng

784,800.00
Withdrawal dari portofolionya.

8%

784,800

847,584.00

12%

847,584

949,294.08

-10%

949,294

854,364.67

-2%

854,365

25%

837,277

27%

1,046,597

61%

1,329,178

837,277.38
1,046,596.7
2
1,329,177.8
4
2,139,976.3
2

Company Name - Presentation

Resersed return analysis without

Withrawals

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Return Beginning
(%)
balance

Withdra Ending
Year
wal
balance
1,610,000.
1
61%
1,000,000
00
2,044,700.
2
27%
1,610,000
00
2,555,875.
3
25%
2,044,700
00
2,504,757.
4
-2%
2,555,875
50
2,254,281.
5
-10%
2,504,758
75
2,524,795.
6
12%
2,254,282
56
Company Name - Presentation
2,726,779.

Simulasi bahwa
henry
Tidak pernah
mengambil dari
portofolionya
dan revers return

Creative Infographic
Portofolio
Expected Return 10%
Survival

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Standar Deviation 17,5%

Henry has 64% chance that his
Portofolio will last 30 years if
withdraw $ 60.000

The chance would increase to 70%

Decreasing withdrawal by $50.00
$55.000
Company Name - Presentation

Simulation

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Company Name - Presentation

Grafik simulasi ending balance

henry tirement

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25,000,000.00

20,000,000.00

15,000,000.00
Ending Balance 1
Ending Balance 2
Ending Balance 3
Ending Balance 4

10,000,000.00

Inflasi 3%

5,000,000.00

0.00
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Company Name - Presentation

SD 4.3%
Rata-rata Return 10%

THANK YOU