Future of Afghanistan

Geography..
Area
total: 647,500 sq km
land: 647,500 sq km
water: 0 sq km
Land boundaries
total: 5,529 km
border countries:

China 76 km
Iran 936 km
Pakistan 2,430 km
Tajikistan 1,206 km
Turkmenistan 744 km
Uzbekistan 137 km

Geography as a factor.
Landlocked.
Dependency.

The Hindu Kush mountains that run northeast to

southwest divide the northern provinces from the
rest of the country.
Mountains and deserts.

Isolated and geographically divided societies.

Difficult mountain passes; covered routes.
Hard life style.
Need for a decentralized governing system.
Disconnection and authoritarianism.

People
Population:
29,928,987 (July 2005 est.)
Age structure:
0-14 years: 44.7%
15-64 years: 52.9%
65 years and over: 2.4%

Life expectancy.
Infant mortality rate:
total: 163.07 deaths/1,000 live births
male: 167.79 deaths/1,000 live births
female: 158.12 deaths/1,000 live births
(2005 est.)
Life expectancy at birth:
total population: 42.9 years
male: 42.71 years
female: 43.1 years (2005 est.)

Ethnic groups.

Religions and languages..

Literacy
definition: age 15 and over can read and
write.
total population: 36%
male: 51%
female: 21% (1999 est.)

Industries
Agriculture - products:
opium, wheat, fruits, nuts, wool, mutton,
sheepskins, lambskins
Industries:
small-scale production of textiles, soap,
furniture, shoes, fertilizer, cement; handwoven carpets; natural gas, coal, copper

Government and administration..

Government type:
Islamic republic
Capital:
Kabul
Administrative divisions:
34 provinces
Independence:
19 August 1919 (from UK control over
Afghan foreign affairs)

Brief History
King Amanullah Khan acceded to the throne in 1919 that
Afghanistan re-gained complete independence
Amanullah was forced to abdicate in January 1929 after
Kabul fell to forces led by Habibullah Kalakani
Prince Mohammed Nadir Shah, a cousin of Amanullah's,
in turn defeated and killed Habibullah Kalakani in October
of the same year & was declared as the King
In 1933 he was assassinated in a revenge killing by a
Kabul student
Mohammed Zahir Shah, Nadir Shah's 19-year-old son,
succeeded to the throne and reigned from 1933 to 1973

 In 1973, Zahir Shah's brother-in-law, Mohammed Daoud Khan, launched a

bloodless coup and became the first President of Afghanistan
The PDPA led by Nur Mohammad Taraki overthrew the regime of
Mohammad Daoud & became President of the country renamed as the
Democratic Republic of Afghanistan (DRA) in 1978 - Khalq or Great
Revolution
Power was thereafter shared by Marxist-Leninist political groups
The new government had very little popular support, but had a very close
tie with Soviet Union
The land and social reform and other policies were largely opposed by the
majority anti communist population

 An insurgency arose against the government among both urban and tribal
groups, which is collectively known as Mujahideen
The governing political party promoted the Soviets to invade the country in
December 1979
The war soon came to a stalemate, 100 00 Soviet troops controlling the
towns and cities whilst the Mujahideen freely moving in rural areas
Soviets started bombing the villages to cut the popular support to
Mujahideens
The Soviet occupation resulted in the killings of between 600,000 and two
million Afghan civilians.
Over 5 million fled as refugees, mostly to Pakistan and Iran. Over 38,000
made it to the United States and many more to the European Union

 USA openly aided the Mujahideen effort by a variety of means

In 1988, USA, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Soviet Union signed
an agreement ending the war and Soviet withdrew her forces
A bulk of the military hardware and funds supplied to
Mujahideen by USA and other Islamic nations remained
unused at the termination of the war, facilitating it to become a
powerful military organization

 In April 1992, various rebel groups supported by some military

formations, captured Kabul overthrowing the communist
president
The transitional government, sponsored by various rebel
factions, proclaimed an Islamic republic, but when the
president Rabbani refused to share power with others, the
fighting broken out again
An Islamic group lead by former Mujahideen commander,
Mulla Mohammad Omar emerged in 1994 and systematically
seized the control of the country occupying Kabul in 1996

 Taliban developed as a politico-religious force and

renamed country as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.
By the end of 2000 the Taliban had captured 95% of the
country.
Taliban soon fell under the influence of a group of well
funded Islamists led by an exiled Saudi Arabian Osama
Bin Larden

Historical turning point

 USA invaded Afghanistan when the Taliban refused to

extradite the Al-queda leader, Osama Bin Laden and
drove the regime from power
The Taliban regime collapsed in December 2001 in the
wake of sustained U.S led military campaign aimed at
fighters of Taliban and Al-queda organization
Subsequently, anti Taliban forces agreed to a period of
transitional leadership and an administration that would
lead to a new constitution and the establishment of
democratically elected government

Enforced democracy
On 9 October 2004, Hamid Karzai
became the first democratically elected
president of Afghanistan.
Elections for the national assembly were
held in April 2005.

USA
Pakistan
Mujahidin
Taliban

USA
Pakistan
Mujahidin
Taliban

Afghan matrix

Afghan-Russian war 1979

Communist regime in power

USSR withdrawal 1989

USSR
India
Communists
Pakistan

USSR
India
Communists

Taliban Seizes power 1996

USA
Europe
Pakistan
India
GWOT 2001
Taliban
Mujahidin
Fundamentalists

USA
Pakistan

India
11
/
9

Mujahidin Seizes power 1992

Pro American government 2004

Reconstruction of Afghanistan

Pakistan
Taliban
Communists

Burning issues in Afghanistan

External disputes.
Refugees
2 million have returned since 2001
Several millions more residing in Pakistan, Iran and
elsewhere

Open borders
Cross border transaction of
Arms
Ammunition
Narcotics

Safe Heaven for terrorists

 Illicit drugs
world's largest producer of opium
cultivation of opium poppy 206,700 hectares in 2004
potential opium production of 4,950 metric tons
potential heroin production of 582 metric tons
80-90% of the heroin consumed in Europe comes
from Afghan opium
vulnerable to narcotics money laundering through
informal financial networks

Internal problems.
Recent history is a story of war and unrest.
Afghanistan remains
extremely poor
Landlocked
highly dependent on foreign aid, farming, and trade
with neighboring countries

Lowest living and health standards in the world

Deeply divided and disturbed society
Sanctuary for illegal activities
Mal-administration and external influence

Internal problems.
Isolation.

Geographical.
Socio-economic.
Religious.
Ethnic and tribal.
Education and exposure.

Much of the population continues to suffer from

shortages of housing, clean water, electricity, medical
care, and jobs.
Areas of focus for the developments
infrastructure development, education, housing development,
jobs programs, and economic reform over the next year.

Continuous aid programs and international attention is

critical for the steady progress.

Causes for long term unrest

No political stability for decades
Invasion by foreign forces
Afghanistan and its people have experienced more than
two decades of occupation and war
An entire generation has grown up knowing little but
violence
Economic mismanagement and drought have added to
the hardship
Millions of Afghans are either refugees or displaced
Most girls have been denied the chance to go to school
Political and religious intolerance at the core of Taliban
rule have created an extraordinarily suffering
environment.

Challenges.
A country free of terrorism and drugs.
Creating an environment for Afghan refugees to
return home to a life of security, economic
opportunity and greater freedom.
The role of international community critical but
should be limited.
Solution should be .the blend of

traditional and modern

Central and local
National and tribal
Democratic and authoritarian religious extremism

Challenges.
Time Horizon
Not Exit but engagement strategy is needed long
term to assist Afghans with their political, economic
and security challenges.
Long term engagement occupation popularity
public opinion cost.
Possible tactical setbacks.
Attacks by individuals or groups.
Fighting among Afghans.
Persuading Afghans to give up their arms.
Poppy to Agro products.
Coalition for ever?

Challenges.
The human geography; the division into
tribes.
The physical geography groups are a basic
facts of political life. (Tribes, ethnic groups,
religious entities).
Inability to call masses of Afghan people for
their own liberation.

Neighbouring countries competition to

control who rules Kabul (Pakistan, Iran).

Challenges.
Vulnerability.
The extremist networks greatest asset is the lack of an
alternative countrywide, broad based Afghan governing
system waiting to replace the Taliban when they are
driven from Kabul

Why You can have some confidence about

the future of Afghanistan
Success of coalitions military operations
Though Taliban defeated remnants both Taliban & Al
Quida still operational
These groups must be geographically restricted and
socially separated
Behavior of Afgans
Public hopes for a stable political future

 Behaviour of Afghans neighbours

An Afghanistan that denies sanctuary to terrorists

One that doesnt export drugs
One that can take refugees back
One willing to live in peace with its neighbours

Attitude of the international community

Ready and committed for a prolonged involvement
Long term plans to help deal with its Social, political, economic and
security-military challenges

RR&R process
Quick impact projects

De-mining
Local road rehabilitation
Provision of seeds
Renovation of water supply
Re-opening of schools

Long term projects

Agricultural reforms
Household and electricity
Infrastructure modernization
Education and health
Resettlement of refugees and internally displaced

RR&R process
Discourage the production of poppy
Alternative economic developments
Eradication
Border controls.

Improving the prospects and situation of girls

and women.

55-60% of the countrys population

Education
Employments
Equal rights
Equal share in development process.

Things to do for better results.

US should be strictly neutral among the different anti Taliban groups.

US should avoid the appearance of being the latest invader of Afghanistan.
Should counter the Al Qaeda possible propaganda that USA is attacking
Afghanistan and Islam.
US intelligence should also avoid favouring resistance groups.
Should not become once more dependent on Pakistan intelligence in
determining which Afghan fraction receives what US assistance.
Seize bombing and destroying non military targets.
Should not deploy regular US troops in conventional ground role.
Limit the US military presence.
Should use Western and Afghan Private Volunteer Organizations (PVOs) to
handle humanitarian assistance.
Instead attacking Taliban front lines, should focus on assisting anti Taliban
resistance.
Humanitarian aid corridors to steadily growing liberated areas.
Get neighbours involves in the process.

Towards lasting democracy

There has not been a legitimate Afghan regime
in Kabul since the Soviet invasion over two
decades ago.
The Afghan people did not choose the Soviet
imposed Afghan communist regime, they did not
choose the Taliban who have been imposed by
radical Muslim elements by from Pakistan and
Saudi Arabia.

A long range vision

Afghanistan should be
Free of terrorists
No longer is a source of poppy
Allows its citizens including an estimated five
million refugees and an unknown number of
internally disputed persons to return to their
homes and live normal lives.

The struggle against Osama Bin Laden

international terrorist network in
Afghanistan is critically dependent upon
Afghan success in creating a legitimate
political alternative to Taliban

END