Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Presentation Agenda
What is PERT Master ?
Project Risk Management Concepts
Introductory Demonstrations
Importing from Primavera
Quick Risk Templates
Running a Risk Analysis
Risk Register with schedule
Advanced Risk Management
Schedule cost loading techniques
Probabilistic cash flow and profitability
breakeven
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Budget /
Schedule
Minimize
Uncertainty Estimate
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field)
Wild Guess
(WAG)
-15% to
+30%
Estimate
PHASE 3
PHASE 4
FEED Front
Execution
End
Engineering
Design
+/-10%
Estimate
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S
A
N
C
T
I
O
N
Detailed Eng.
& Procurement
PHASE
5
Operation
s Detailed
Eng. &
Procurement
No
+/- 3%
Estimate
Estimate
Uncertaint
y
Estimate uncertainty
Low
Discrete risk events
Risk event /
Risk event
register
monitoring
analysis
DOING PROJECTS RIGHT
PLAN YOUR WORK
WORK YOUR PLAN
PORTFOLIO
ANALYSIS
PHASE
PHASE 2
1
Opportuni Alternative
selection
ty (e.g. oil
field)
WAG
(rig A/B/C,
own)
-15% to
+30%
Estimate
PHASE 3
PHASE 4
FEED Front
Execution
End
Engineering
Design
+/-10%
Estimate
PROJECT ANALYSIS
S
A
N
C
T
I
O
N
Detailed Eng.
& Procurement
Eng. &
Procurement
No
+/- 3%
Estimate
Estimate
Uncertaint
y
Estimate uncertainty
Low
Discrete risk events
Risk event /
Risk event
register
monitoring
analysis
DOING PROJECTS RIGHT
PLAN YOUR WORK
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PHASE
5
Operation
s Detailed
Risk Vs Schedule
Realistic /Most Likely
Aggressive / Optimistic
Cautious / Pessimistic
Scale to Fit
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Types of Risks
Uncertainty
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Duratio
n/Cost
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Types of Risk
Activity A
Activity B
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Risk Register
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Risk Register
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7 8 91 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Max
7
Mi
Likely
n
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ITERATION
1
2
10 DAYS
9 DAYS
14 DAYS
3
17 DAYS
4
11 DAYS
5
7
6 DAYS
7 10 DAYS
12 DAYS
8
6
9
DAYS
7 8 91 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Max
7
Mi
Likely
n
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Scheduling errors
Risk Inputs
Estimate Uncertainty:
Quick Risk
Risk Events: risk register
Risk Impacts
Map risks to tasks
Risk Analysis
Monte Carlo Simulation
Risk hot spots
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Risk Outputs
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