Professional Documents
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Decisions
Importance of Investment
Decisions
investments is as follows:
an investment:
the project.
It should provide for an objective and unambiguous way of
separating good projects from bad projects.
It should help ranking of projects according to their true profitability.
It should recognise the fact that bigger cash flows are preferable to
smaller ones and early cash flows are preferable to later ones.
It should help to choose among mutually exclusive projects that
project which maximises the shareholders wealth.
It should be a criterion which is applicable to any conceivable
investment project independent of others.
Evaluation Criteria
1. Non-discounted Cash Flow Criteria
Payback Period (PB)
Discounted Payback Period (DPB)
Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
2. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Criteria
PAY-BACK PERIOD
The payback period is the amount of time
required for the firm to recover its initial
investment.
Basic formulae
Case 1:
EXAMPLE:
A proposal requires a cash outflow of Rs.
1,00,000 and is expected to generate cash
inflows of Rs.20,000 p.a. for 6 years. In this
case the payback period will be:
PAYBACK PERIOD = INITIAL
OUTFLOW
ANNUAL INFLOW
= 100000
20000
Case 2:
EXAMPLE:
A proposal requires a cash outflow of
Rs.20,000 and is expected to generate cash
inflows of Rs.8000, 6000, 4000, 2000 and
2000 over next five years respectively. Then
the payback period will be 4 years because
the sum of cash inflows of first four years is
20,000.
Annual CF
Cumulative CF
8000
8000
6000
14000
4000
18000
2000
20000
DECISION RULE:
If the projects payback period is less than the maximum
the
maximum acceptable payback period, reject the project.
Computational simplicity
Easy to understand
Focus on cash flow
CF
C(0)
PV
Accumulated
PV
To be
recovered
Dis.
Payback
100000
30000
27272.7
27272.727
72727.27273
50000
41322.3
68595.041
31404.95868
>2
60000
45078.9
113673.93
-13673.92938
<3
2+(31404/45079)
= 2.70 years
Decision Rule
An investment is accepted,
If discounted payback period < some specified
number of time period.
An investment is rejected,
If discounted payback period > some specified
number of time period.
The decision:
The discounted payback period is longer than 2
years and shorter than 3 years.
If the cutoff is 2 years, wed reject the project.
If the cutoff is 3 years, wed accept the project.
CALCULATION OF AVERAGE
INVESTMENT:
Average investment refers to average annual quantum
of funds that are invested in the project over its
economic life.
AVERAGE INVESTMENT =1/2(INITIAL
COST+INSTALLATION EXPENSES- SALVAGE VALUE)+
SALVAGE VALUE.
EXAMLPE:
ABC Ltd. Takes the project costing Rs.1,20,000 with
expected life of five years and the salvage value of
Rs.20,000. Then
AVERAGE INVESTMENT=1/2(1,20,000-20,000)+20,000
=70,000.
OPENING B.V.
CLOSING B.V.
AVERAGE B.V.
1,20,000
1,00,000
1,10,000
1,00,000
80,000
90,000
80,000
60,000
70,000
60,000
40,000
50,000
40,000
20,000
30,000
3,50,000
TOTAL=
AVERAGE INVESTMENT=3,50,000/5
=70,000
DECISION RULE
Disadvantages of ARR:
It ignores time value of money.
32
C3
Cn
C1
C2
C0
L
2
3
n
(1 k )
(1 k )
(1 k ) (1 k )
n
Ct
NPV
C0
t
t 1 (1 k )
NPV
33
Example:
A firm is considering a capital budgeting proposal
having initial cost of Rs. 1,70,000. The project is
expected to generate annual cash flows of Rs.
20,000, Rs. 50,000, Rs. 60,000 and Rs. 40,000
respectively during next 4 years. And the discount
rate is 10% .
Time
Cash Flows
PVF(10%, T)
Present Values
T0
-1,70,000
1.000
-1,70,000
T1
20,000
.909
18,180
T2
50,000
.826
41,300
T3
60,000
.751
45,060
T4
40,000
.683
27,320
Total
- 38140
Acceptance Rule
Accept the project when NPV is positive
NPV > 0
Reject the project when NPV is negative
NPV < 0
May accept the project when NPV is zero
NPV = 0
The NPV method can be used to select
between mutually exclusive projects; the one
with the higher NPV should be selected.
Financial Management, Ninth Edition I M Pandey
Vikas Publishing House Pvt. Ltd.
35
Disadvantages of NPV:
L
2
3
(1 r ) (1 r )
(1 r )
(1 r ) n
n
C0
t 1
n
t 1
Ct
(1 r )t
Ct
C0 0
t
(1 r )
37
Step 1.
Make an approximation of the IRR on the basis of cash
flows data. This approximation can be made with reference to
the pay back period. In this case the pay back period is 4
years. Now, search for a value nearest to 4 in the 6th year
row of the PVAF table. The closest figures are given in rate
12% (4.111) and the rate 13% (3.998). This means that the
IRR of the proposal is expected to lie between 12% and 13%.
Step 2.
Find out the NPV of the project for both
these rates as follows:
At 12%, NPV=(25000* PVAF(12%, 6y)100000)
=(25000*4.111) 100000
= Rs. 2775
At 13%, NPV=(25000* PVAF(13%, 6y)100000)
=(25000*3.998) 100000
= Rs. 50
Step 3.
Cash
Inflows
Weight
CF* W
40000
2,00,000
60000
2,40,000
50000
1,50,000
50000
1,00,000
40000
40,000
Total=
15
7,30,000
Step 2.
Consider the weighted average as the annuity of cash
inflows and find out the payback period.
Pay back period is Rs. 1,60,000/ 48,667= 3.288.
Step 3.
Now, search for a value nearest to 3.2888 in 5 years row
of the PVAF table. The closest figure given in the table are
at 15% (3.352) and at 16% (3.274). This means that IRR
is expected to lie between 15% and 16%.
Step 4.
Cash
Inflow
PVF(16%,
n)
PVF(15%, PV
n)
(16%)
PV(15%)
40,000
.862
.870
34,480
34,800
60,000
.743
.756
44,580
45,360
50,000
.641
.658
32,050
32,900
50,000
.552
.572
27,600
28,600
40,000
.476
.497
19,040
19,880
1,57,75
0
1,61,540
Total
Step 5.
Find out exact IRR by interpolating between 15%
and 16%. At 15% the NPV is Rs. 1,540 and at 16%,
the NPV is zero will be more than 15% but less than
16%. By interpolating the difference of 1% (i.e. 16%15%) over the NPV difference of Rs. 3,790 i.e. 2250-(1540)
IRR= 15% + 1,61,540-1,60,000 * (16-15)
1,61,540- 1,57,750
= 15.40%
Decision Rules
Accept the project when r > k.
Reject the project when r < k.
May accept the project when r = k.
In case of independent projects, IRR and NPV
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Disadvantages of IRR:
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Example
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Question
From the following information, evaluate the proposal
using T.V.:
Initial Outlay
Rs. 20,000
Project Life
5 years
Net Cash Flow
Rs. 8000 each year
Cost of capital
10%
Expected Interest rate:
Year
1
2
3
4
5
%
6
6
8
8
8
58
Answer:
Year
Cash
Flows
Rates of
return(%)
Period of
Reinvest
ment
Compoun
ding
Factor
Compoun
ding Cash
Inflows
8000
1.262
10,096
8000
1.191
9528
8000
1.166
9328
8000
1.080
8640
8000
1.000
8000
45592
Decision Rule
A project is:
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Example:
A project which is being evaluated by a firm that has a
cost of capital of 12%
Initial investment:
100000
Benefits:
Year1
Year 2
Year3
Year4
25000
40000
40000
50000
BCR = PVB
I
PVB = Present Value of Benefits
I
= Initial Investment
25000 + 40000 + 40000 + 50000
Decision Rule
When BCR
NBCR
RULE
>1
>0
ACCEPT
=1
=0
INDEFFERENT
<1
<0
REJECT
Problems?
Sometimes it is not possible to rank projects with the Benefit-Cost
Ratio
Mutually exclusive projects of different sizes
Mutually exclusive projects and recurrent costs subtracted out of
benefits or benefits reported gross of operating costs
Not necessarily true that R >R
that project A is better
A
B
Required :
Rank these investment alternatives using the payback period,
and the NPV. The required rate of return is 18%
NCF (P1)
Cum. CF
NCF (P2)
Cum. CF
-500
150
150
200
200
300
300
150
300
200
400
100
400
650
950
100
500
000
400
950
1200
1700
000
400
-600
NCF (P3)
Cum. CF
-400
According to the payback method, project C which pays back after 2 years is
No. 1, followed by project A which pays back after 3 years, while project B
is No. 3 because it pays back during the fourth year.
The NPV:
According to the net present value method, the net
cash flows should be discounted and accumulated
to get the NPV, by the end of the useful life. The
project that generates the highest NPV is the most
feasible one.
Profitability Index
Profitability index is the ratio of the present
76
Profitability Index
The initial cash outlay of a project is Rs 100,000
77
Acceptance Rule
The following are the PI acceptance rules:
Accept the project when PI is greater than one.
PI > 1
Reject the project when PI is less than one.
PI < 1
May accept the project when PI is equal to one.
PI = 1
The project with positive NPV will have PI
78
Evaluation of PI Method
It recognises the time value of money.
It is consistent with the shareholder value
79
80
81
C0
-100
100
C1
120
-120
IRR
20%
20%
NPV at 10%
9
-9
82
NPV (Rs)
250
NPV Rs 63
0
-250
-500
-750
0
50
100
150
200
250
83
The cash flow pattern of the projects may differ. That is, the
cash flows of one project may increase over time, while those
of others may decrease or vice-versa.
The cash outlays of the projects may differ.
The projects may have different expected lives.
84
C0
1,680
1,680
C1
1,400
140
C2
700
840
NPV
C3
140
1,510
at 9%
301
321
IRR
23%
17%
85
Scale of Investment
Cash Flow (Rs)
Project
A
B
C0
-1,000
-100,000
C1
1,500
120,000
NPV
at 10%
364
9,080
IRR
50%
20%
86
C0
10,000
10,000
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
NPV at 10%
IRR
12,000
0
20,120
908
2,495
20%
15%
87
Reinvestment Assumption
The IRR method is assumed to imply that the
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89
NPV Versus PI
A conflict may arise between the two methods if
90