Professional Documents
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ESTIMATION
Community Medicine
North Bengal Medical College
Research Process
Research Planning
Hypothesis and Aims
Research Design
Data Collection
Organization and Presentation
Data Analysis
Interpretation and Conclusion
Publication
Research Design
So, the
Sample -
Confidence interval
Type of study
Design effect
Sampling technique
Anticipated
Magnitude of
problem
Precision & power of
the study
dropouts
SOME TERMINOLOGIES
- For Understanding Sample Size
Estimation
Hypotheses
Hypothesis: a prediction about the outcome of
research
Hypothesis testing is a procedure that uses
sample data to evaluate an hypothesis about a
population parameter (e.g. mean, standard
deviation, proportion)
Briefly, we make a decision about the
hypothesis on the basis of our sample data.
Types of Hypotheses
Null Hypothesis (H0):
a statement which usually claims a zero difference
which the researcher tries to disprove, reject or nullify.
(The mean weight of males and females are not different. )
Directional Hypotheses
H 0: 1 = 2
H 1: 1 2
Two-sided test
Errors in Hypothesis
Testing
Confidence Interval:
The probability that an estimate of a
population parameter is within certain
specified limits of the true value;
commonly denoted by : 1- .
Significance level
An arbitrarily and a priori declared probability
threshold.
Cut-off point for p-value, below which H0 will be
rejected.
Typically set at 5%. (i.e. = 0.05; CI (1- ) = 0.95)
Power:
Z and Z
Z value required for a chosen level
of
(Type I error)
Z value required for a chosen level
of (Type II error)
OR a chosen level of Power (1- )
Level of (p
value)
0.05
1.96
0.01
0.001
2.57
3.29
Level of
0.10
0.15
1.28
1.04
0.20
0.84
0.25
0.67
Precision
A measure of how close an estimate is to
the true value of a population parameter.
It may be expressed in absolute terms or
relative to the estimate.
Desired width of the confidence interval
for sample estimate
Design Effect
A measure of variability due to selection
of study subjects by any sampling
method other than simple random
sampling.
Thus ultimately the calculated sample
size is multiplied by 2 (usually) to get
the same precision as simple random
sampling
Standard Deviation (
or SD)
Standard Error
When studying a population or universe, many
different samples can be chosen out of it.
If we calculate the sample mean, we would
see that all the sample means are different,
though all the samples have been drawn from
same universe.
Mean of all the sample means will corroborate
to population mean. The standard deviation of
the means is a measure of the standard error
and is given by the formula SD/ n.
n
Sample Size
Calculations
of study
Cross sectional Study
One sample situation
Two sample situation
Cross-Sectional :
One Sample
Situations
Outcome measure is dichotomous
variable (proportion)
Estimating a population proportion with
specified absolute precision
Estimating a population proportion with
specified relative precision
Estimating a population
proportion with specified absolute
precision
Example
: Problem 1
Problem 1:
Solution
d2
= 246 children
(0.05)2
Estimating a population
proportion with specified
relative precision
Example:
Problem 2
Problem 2: Solution
(a) Anticipated population proportion
(b) Confidence level
95%
(c) Relative precision (45% to 55%)
%) z1 -/2= 1.96
50 %
10 % (of 50
(0.1)2 X 0.5
= 384 children
Continuous Outcome
Variable
Required information and notation
(a) Anticipated population SD
Example:
Problem 3
Problem 3:
Solution
2.1
= ( 1.96)2 x (2.1)2
(0.52)2
Cross-Sectional:
Two Sample
Situations
Estimating the difference between
two population proportions with
specified absolute precision
Estimating the difference between
two population proportions with
specified relative precision
Sample Size:
2
n= z1 -/2 [P1 (1-P1) + P2 (1-P2)]
d2
or
n= z1 -/2 V
d2
where V= P1 (1-P1) + P2 (1-P2)
Example:
Problem 4
Problem 4:
a.
b.
c.
d.
Solution
z1 -/2= 1.96
2
Sample Size= z
1 -/2 V =
(1.96)2 X 0.46
d2
= 707 in each group.
(0.05)2
Disease
Expose Unexpose
d
d
a
b
No
c
d
disease
Odds Ratio (OR) = ad/bc
Sample Size:
Case Control
Study
Required information and notation
a.Two of the following should be known:
Anticipated probability of "exposure for people
with the disease
[a/(a + b)] P1
Anticipated probability of "exposure for people
without the disease [c/(c + d)]
P2
Anticipated odds ratio OR
P2(1- P2)]
[loge(1- )]2
Example:
Problem 5
Problem 5: Solution
Anticipated probability of "exposure" given "disease= ?
Anticipated probability of "exposure" given "no
disease
(approximated by overall exposure rate)
= 30 %
Anticipated odds ratio
Confidence level
95 %
Relative precision
25 %
Cohort Study
Diseas
e
Exposed
a
Unexpos
c
ed
Relative Risk = a/a+b
c/c+d
No
disease
b
d
Sample Size:
Cohort study
(1 P1)
P1
[loge(1- )]2
+ (1- P2)
P2
Example:
Problem 6
Problem 6:
Solution
Sample Size:
Experimental
Studies
Considerations:
Here the purpose is to test null hypothesis,
thus sample size calculation requires
specification of limits of errors one is
willing to accept in accepting or rejecting
null hypothesis (type I & II error).
Outcome Measure
- Dichotomous variable OR Continuous
variable.
Effect size of clinical importance
Variable
N=
(Z
+P2Q2)
1-
+ Z )
(P1Q1
(P1 - P2)
Example:
Problem 7
Problem 7: Solution
Z
(Z
1-
+ Z ) 2 (P1Q1 +P2Q2)
(P1-P2) 2
= (1.96+ 0.84)2 {(0.7 X 0.3) +(055 X 0.45)}
(0.7-0.55)2
= 160 each from study and control groups
Variable
Required information and notation
a.Estimate of variable of individual values
detect
c. Level of significance
100
%
Sample size n = 2 (Z 1- + Z
d. Power of the test
100(1-)
%) 2 2
()
Example:
Problem 8
Problem 8
: Solution
n= 2 (Z
1-
+ Z ) 2 ()
()
Recommended Reading
SAMPLE SIZE
DETERMINATION IN HEALTH
STUDIES- A Practical Manual
S. K. Lwanga & S. Lemeshow
Thank You