Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Ivan Bratko
Faculty of Computer and Information Sc.
University of Ljubljana
BAYESIAN NETWORKS
BURGLARY EXAMPLE
BURGLARY EXAMPLE
burglary
lightning
sensor
alarm
call
PROBABILISTC DEPENDENCIES
AND CAUSALITY
EXAMPLE OF
REASONING IN BELIEF NETWORK
TERMINOLOGY
Bayes network =
belief network =
probabilistic network =
causal network
Link X
Y intuitively means:
X has direct influence on Y
BURGLARY DOMAIN
Five events: B, L, S, A, C
p( B L S A C) = ...
p( ~B L S A C) = ...
p( ~B ~L S A C) = ...
p( ~B L ~S A C) = ...
...
Total: 32 probabilities
If X and Y independent:
p(XY) = p(X) p(Y),
Earthquake
Alarm
John calls
Mary calls
PROBABILITIES
P(B) = 0.001,
A
T
F
B
T
T
F
F
P(J | A)
0.90
0.05
E
T
F
T
F
P(A | BE)
0.95
0.95
0.29
0.001
P(E) = 0.002
A
T
F
P(M | A)
0.70
0.01
B1
B2
non-descendants of C
...
parents of C
C
D1, D2, ...
descendants of C
INDEPENDENCE ON
NONDESCENDANTS REQUIRES CARE
EXAMPLE
a
parent of c
b
c
e
d
nondescendants of c
f
descendant of c
By applying rule about nondescendants:
p(c|ab) = p(c|b)
Because: c independent of c's nondesc. a given c's parents
(node b)
INDEPENDENCE ON
NONDESCENDANTS REQUIRES CARE
But, for this Bayesian network:
p(c|bdf) p(c|bd)
Athough f is c's nondesc., it cannot be ignored:
knowing f, e becomes more likely;
e may also cause d, so when e becomes more likely, c
becomes less likely.
Problem is that descendant d is given.
SAFER FORMULATION OF
INDEPENDENCE
STATING PROBABILITIES
IN BELIEF NETS
For each node X with parents Y1, Y2, ..., specify conditional
probabilities of form:
p( X | Y1Y2 ...)
for all possible states of Y1, Y2, ...
Y1
Y2
X
Specify:
p( X | Y1, Y2)
p( X | ~Y1, Y2)
p( X | Y1, ~Y2)
p( X | ~Y1, ~Y2)
BURGLARY EXAMPLE
p(burglary) = 0.001
p(lightning) = 0.02
p(sensor | burglary lightning) = 0.9
p(sensor | burglary ~lightning) = 0.9
p(sensor | ~burglary lightning) = 0.1
p(sensor | ~burglary ~lightning) = 0.001
p(alarm | sensor) = 0.95
p(alarm | ~sensor) = 0.001
p(call | sensor) = 0.9
p(call | ~sensor) = 0.0
BURGLARY EXAMPLE
p( burglary | alarm) = ?
p( burglary lightning) = ?
p( burglary | alarm ~lightning) = ?
p( alarm ~call | burglary) = ?
BAYES' FORMULA
p(Y | X )
p( X | Y ) p( X )
p(Y )
A variant of Bayes' formula to reason about probability
of hypothesis H given evidence E in presence of
background knowledge B:
p( E | H B )
p( H | E B ) p( H | B )
p( E | B )
REASONING RULES
1. Probability of conjunction:
p( X1 X2 | Cond) = p( X1 | Cond) * p( X2 | X1 Cond)
2. Probability of a certain event:
p( X | Y1 ... X ...) = 1
3. Probability of impossible event:
p( X | Y1 ... ~X ...) = 0
4. Probability of negation:
p( ~X | Cond) = 1 p( X | Cond)
COMMENTS
d-SEPARATION
d-SEPARATION
We write I(Vi,Vj | E)
BLOCKING A PATH
A path between Vi and Vj is blocked by nodes E if there is a
blocking node Vb on the path. Vb blocks the path if one of
the following holds:
CONDITION 1
Vb is a common cause:
Vb
Vi
Vj
CONDITION 2
Vb
Vj
CONDITION 3
Vi
Vj
Vb
Vb not in E
Vd
Vd not in E