6

6-Sigma Program
& Concepts Overview
Project Phases:
Presenters:
P. Pfaff
H. Myrie
K. Barker

Control
Improve
Analyze
Measure
Page 1

Meet Larry.
Larry is a golfer.
His play is,
shall we say,
erratic?
He wants to play
more consistently.
Page 2

6-Sigma Example - Measure Phase

Larrys Golf Game
What is the output of Larrys game?
Run Chart of Larry's Scores
120
110
100
90
80
70

Date

Page 3

6/7

6/2

5/27

5/19

5/13

4/27

4/20

4/13

3/23

3/3

2/26

2/24

2/10

2/5

60

1/15

Date
Score
1/15
102
2/5
108
2/10
103
2/24
92
2/26
94
3/3
91
3/23
93
4/13
92
4/20
106
4/27
100
5/13
106
5/19
107
Specification: Larry
between 80 and
5/27wants to shoot
111
100 this season,
average score of 90.
6/2 with a target108
6/7
104

Score

6-Sigma Example - Measure Phase

Larry's Long Term Capability
Lower Spec

Upper Spec

Cpk = -0.05 !!!

What is his process

capability?
80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Score
Pp

0.48

Targ

Mean

101.133

%>USL Exp

56.49

PPM>USL Exp

564887

PPU

-0.05

USL

100.000

Mean+3s

121.945

Obs

60.00

Obs

600000

PPL

1.02

LSL

80.000

Mean-3s

80.322

%<LSL Exp

0.12

PPM<LSL Exp

1158

Ppk

-0.05

1.113

6.937

Obs

0.00

Obs

15.000

Cpm

How does this relate to his ZLT (Long

Term) and ZST (Short Term)?

Larry's Short Term Capability

Lower Spec

ZLT = (Cpk x 3) = -0.15 Process

ZST = (Cp x 3) = 5.64 Process*
*(Best Process Cp - Sources of Variation Eliminated)

Upper Spec

Cp = 1.88

Goal: Reduce the variation and move the

average in Larrys game.

80.0

82.5

85.0

87.5

90.0

92.5

95.0

97.5

100.0

ShrtTrm
Cp

1.88

Targ

Mean

92.4000

%>USL Exp

0.00

PPM>USL Exp

CPU

1.43

USL

100.00

Mean+3s

97.7191

Obs

0.00

Obs

CPL

2.33

LSL

80.00

Mean-3s

87.0809

%<LSL Exp

0.00

PPM<LSL Exp

Cpk

1.43

0.24

1.7730

Obs

0.00

Obs

5.00

Cpm

Page 4

6-Sigma Example - Measure Phase

Larry is Here

How do we determine the

opportunity for improvement
for Larrys Game?

ZST = 5.64
ZLT = -0.15
ZSHIFT = 5.79
(ZSHIFT = ZST - ZLT)

Control (Zshift)

3.0

Improve
Control
1.5

Goal
Improve
Skills

0
0

3.0

6.0

Technology/Skills (ZST)

This
Thismeans:
means:

Just
Justby
byimproving
improvinghis
hiscontrol,
control,Larry
Larrycan
canachieve
achieveaa5.5
5.5sigma
sigmagame.
game.

IfIfhe
hewants
wantsaa66sigma
sigmagame
gamehe
hewill
willalso
alsohave
haveto
toimprove
improvehis
hisskills.
skills.
Page 5

6-Sigma Example - Measure Phase

Lets
Letsanalyze
analyzehis
hisgame
gameby
bybreaking
breakingdown
downhis
hisscore.
score.
Where
Whereisisthe
thebiggest
biggestopportunity
opportunityininhis
hisoverall
overallgame?
game?

Larrys Golf Game

100

Count

1000

80

He
Hetakes
takesmore
moreshots
shots
ininhis
short
game
(62.3%).
his short game (62.3%).
500

40
20

Shot Type
Count
Percent
Cum %

0
o rt
Sh

777
62.3
62.3

ng
Lo

470
37.7
100.0

Page 6

6-Sigma Example - Measure Phase

Lets
Letscontinue
continueanalyzing
analyzinghis
hisgame
gameby
bybreaking
breakingititdown
downfurther.
further.
Where
is
the
biggest
opportunity
in
his
short
game?
Where is the biggest opportunity in his short game?

Larrys Short Game

800

100

700
80

Count

600

He
Hetakes
takesmore
moreshots
shots
ininhis
putting
game
(66.9%).
his putting game (66.9%).

500
400

40

300
200

20

100
0

Shot Type
Count
Percent
Cum %

0
Pu
520
66.9
66.9

tts

Ch

pi s

257
33.1
100.0
Page 7

6-Sigma Example - Measure Phase

Cause & Effect Diagram - Larrys Putting Game
Measurement

Material

Larry

Putting Score

Environment

Methods

Machine

What
Whatare
arethe
thecauses
causesof
ofvariation
variationininLarrys
LarrysPutting
PuttingGame?
Game?
Page 8

6-Sigma Program
& Concepts Overview
Project Phases:
Presenters:
P. Pfaff
H. Myrie
K. Barker

Control
Improve
Analyze
Measure
Page 9

6-Sigma Example - Analyze Phase

Cause & Effect Diagram - Larrys Putting Game
Measurement

Material

>Cheat at Counting
> Cant Remember
> Pencil has an eraser

> Grass Type

> Golf Course

> Green Condition
> Time of Day
> Weather
> Playing Partners
> Betting of Hole

Environment

Larry
>Number of Drinks
> Eye Glasses Prescription Updated
> Properly Rested

> Putting Style

- Stance
-Grip
- Swing
> Reading the Green

Methods

>Putter Type
> Ball Type
> Shoes
> Glove

Putting Score

Machine

What
Whatare
arethe
thecauses
causesof
ofvariation
variationininLarrys
LarrysPutting
PuttingGame?
Game?
Page 10

6-Sigma Example - Analyze Phase

IsIsputting
puttingreally
reallyaasignificant
significantsource
sourceofofvariation
variationininthe
theoverall
overallgolf
golfscore?
score?

ScatterPlot/Fitted Line Regression

130

Yes!!!

Score

120

110
Y = 33.1284 + 1.67546X

100

R-Squared = 0.906

90

35

40

45

Putts

50

The
TheR-Squared
R-Squaredvalue
valuesays
says
that
that90.6%
90.6%ofofthe
thevariation
variation
ininthe
theOverall
OverallScore
Scoreisis
directly
directlyrelated
relatedtotothe
the
putting
puttinggame.
game.
Page 11

6-Sigma Example - Analyze Phase

Lets
Letsfigure
figureout
outwhat
whatisiscausing
causingthe
thevariation
variationininhis
hisputting
puttinggame.
game.. .. .
Run Chart of Larry's Scores
120
110

90

6/7

6/2

5/27

5/13

4/27

4/20

4/13

3/23

3/3

2/26

2/24

2/10

60

2/5

70

5/19

What
Whatdid
didLarry
Larrydo
do
differently
during
differently during
this
thistime
timeframe?
frame?

80

1/15

S co r e

100

Date

Page 12

6-Sigma Example - Analyze Phase

IfIfhe
hegave
gaveup
updrinking,
drinking,does
doesthe
thenumber
numberofofdrinks
drinksdirectly
directlyaffect
affecthis
hisputting?
putting?

ScatterPlot/Fitted Line Regression

54

P utts

Yes!!!
44
Y=

36.25 + 2X

R-Squared = 0.872
34

Drinks

The
TheR-Squared
R-Squaredvalue
valuesays
says
that
that87.2%
87.2%ofofthe
thevariation
variation
ininPutting
Puttingisisdirectly
directlyrelated
related
totothe
number
of
drinks
the number of drinkshe
hehad.
had.

Page 13

6-Sigma Example - Analyze Phase

Conclusions
Larry should putt, or drink, but not both!
If Larry gives up drinking while golfing he will
have addressed 87.2% of the variation in his
putting game.
By bringing his putting game under control he
will achieve a 5-sigma game.
To achieve a 6-sigma game we will have to
do further investigations.

Page 14

6-Sigma Program
& Concepts Overview
Project Phases:
Presenters:
P. Pfaff
H. Myrie
K. Barker

Control
Improve
Analyze
Measure
Page 15

6-Sigma Example - Improve Phase

Cause & Effect Diagram - Larrys Putting Game
Measurement

Material

>Cheat at Counting
> Cant Remember
> Pencil has an eraser

> Grass Type

>NUMBER OF DRINKS
> Eye Glasses Prescription Updated
> Properly Rested

> Golf Course

> Green Condition
> Time of Day
> Weather
> Playing Partners
> Betting of Hole

Environment

Larry

> Putting Style

- Stance
-Grip
- Swing
> Reading the Green

Methods

>Putter Type
> Ball Type
> Shoes
> Glove

Putting Score

Machine

Last
Lasttime
timewe
wedetermined
determineddrinks
drinkswas
wasaasignificant
significantX.
X.
What
Whatother
othersources
sourcesalso
alsodrive
drivethe
thePutting
PuttingScore?
Score?
Page 16

6-Sigma Example - Improve Phase

In
Inorder
orderto
toimprove
improvehis
hisgame
gameabove
abovethe
the5-sigma
5-sigmalevel
level
he
hehas
hasto
toimprove
improvehis
hisskills.
skills.

What skills does he need to improve?

After talking with Larry and the Golf Pro we
have concluded that there are three areas
that would most likely improve his putting
game. They are the putter type, stance
and grip during putting.
The Golf Pro wants to sell him the latest
high tech/high $$ putter (Big Bubba).

What does Larry have to do?

Page 17

6-Sigma Example - Improve Phase

Larry was not sure, so he consulted with his trustworthy

Black Belt, who uses data to help make decisions.

They then set up a Designed Set of Experiments with

the following settings:

Factor
Putter Type
Stance
Grip

Low (-1)
Old Reliable
Closed
Open

High (+1)
Big Bubba
Open
Interlocked

Page 18

6-Sigma Example - Improve Phase

This
Thisis
isthe
theExperiment
Experiment Matrix
Matrixthat
that they
theydecided
decidedto
to run!
run!

Putter Type

Stance

Grip

Old Reliable
Big Bubba
Old Reliable
Big Bubba
Old Reliable
Big Bubba
Old Reliable
Big Bubba

Closed
Closed
Open
Open
Closed
Closed
Open
Open

Open
Open
Open
Open
Interlocked
Interlocked
Interlocked
Interlocked

3
This
Thisis
isaa223DOE,
DOE,which
whichhas
haseight
eightconditions
conditionsto
totest.
test.

Page 19

6-Sigma Example - Improve Phase

This
Thisis
isthe
theExperiment
ExperimentMatrix
Matrixafter
afterwe
werandomized
randomized
the
theorder
orderthat
thatthey
theywill
willrun!
run!

Run #
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Putter Type
Old Reliable
Old Reliable
Big Bubba
Old Reliable
Big Bubba
Big Bubba
Old Reliable
Big Bubba

Stance
Closed
Open
Closed
Closed
Open
Open
Open
Closed

Grip
Open
Open
Open
Interlocked
Interlocked
Open
Interlocked
Interlocked

Randomization
Randomizationis
isdone
doneto
todetect
detect
the
theeffect
effectof
ofother
othernon-controlled
non-controlledvariables.
variables.
Page 20

6-Sigma Example - Improve Phase

We
Weran
ranthe
theexperiments
experimentsand
andthese
theseare
arethe
theresults.
results.

p = .873

p = .037

38
36

36
34

-1
1

-1

-1

Close Stance

34

Open Stance

Open Stance

Close Stance

32

-1

Old Reliable

38

Stance

40

Putter
Type

Big Bubba

40
38

-1
1

Old Reliable

36
34

-1
1

Big Bubba

32

Grip

Stance
Stanceand
andGrip
Gripare
are
significant
significantfactors.
factors.
(Verified
(Verifiedstatistically.)
statistically.)

Open

Interlock

Open

Putter
Type

Big Bubba

Old Reliable

Stance

Open

Close

32

Grip

Interlock

40

p = .026

Putting Score

Interaction Plots for Putting Score p = .003

Main Effects Plot for Putting Score

The
TheClosed
ClosedStance
Stancewith
withthe
the
Interlocked
InterlockedGrip
Gripgives
givesLarry
Larry
the
Lowest
Score!
the
Lowest
Score!
(Verified statistically.)
(Verified statistically.)

Page 21

6-Sigma Example - Improve Phase

DOE Conclusions
The high $$ putter made no difference!!
The interaction between Closed Stance and
Interlocked Grip gives Larry the lowest score!
Just using the interlocked grip or closed
stance by themselves will not achieve the
lowest putting score.

Page 22

6-Sigma Example - Improve Phase

So, What is Larrys Improvement Plan?
Give up drinking . . . on the golf course!!
Continue to use Old Reliable putter, since
the DOE showed that the Big Bubba made
no difference.
Always use an interlocking grip and a closed
stance when he putts.
Implement these improvements and collect
some data! Play some golf!

Page 23

6-Sigma Example - Improve Phase

Larry's Run Chart of Scores

Improve

Measure

120

Has Larry
improved?

110

USL

100
90

LSL

80

Process Capability Analysis

6-Sep

14-A ug

6-A ug

2 9 - Ju l

4 - Ju l

2 5 - Ju n

1 4 - Ju n

7 - Ju n

27-May

13-May

20-A pr

23-Mar

2 6 - Fe b

1 0 - Fe b

60

1 5 - Ja n

70

Lower Spec

Upper Spec

Yes! How much?

From
FromMeasure:
Measure:
Zlt
Zlt ==-0.15
-0.15
Zst
=
5.64
Zst = 5.64

From
FromImprove:
Improve:
Zlt
Zlt ==4.23
4.23

DPMO
DPMO==820,000
820,000

80.0

82.5

85.0

87.5

90.0

92.5

95.0

97.5

100.0

ImpScore

DPMO
DPMO==12
12

Pp

1.42

Targ

PPU

1.41

USL

PPL

1.43

LSL

Ppk

1.41

0.007

15.000

Cpm

Mean

90.0667

%>USL Exp

0.00

PPM>USL Exp

11

100.000

Mean+3s

97.0992

Obs

0.00

Obs

80.000

Mean-3s

83.0341

%<LSL Exp

0.00

PPM<LSL Exp

2.3442

Obs

0.00

Obs

Page 24

6-Sigma Program
& Concepts Overview
Project Phases:
Presenters:
P. Pfaff
H. Myrie
K. Barker

Control
Improve
Analyze
Measure
Page 25

6-Sigma Example - Improve Review

Remember Larrys Improve Plan . . .
Give up drinking . . . on the golf course!!
Use Old Reliable putter!!
Always use an interlocking grip and a closed
stance when he putts!!

. . . and the Results

From
FromMeasure:
Measure:
Zlt
Zlt ==-0.15
-0.15
Zst
=
5.64
Zst = 5.64

From
FromImprove:
Improve:
Zlt
Zlt ==4.23
4.23

DPMO
DPMO==820,000
820,000

DPMO
DPMO==12
12

Page 26

6-Sigma Example - Control Phase

Larry Needs a Control Plan
Whats a good plan to insure that Larry
sustains the improvements he has made?
Are there risks that could cause Larry to lose
his improvement?
If so, how should Larry address those risks
associated with changing his golf game?
Can Larry come up with a realistic drinking
objective and maintain his improvement?

Page 27

6-Sigma Example - Control Phase

So, What is Larrys Control Plan?
Alternate drinking plan

ke
a
t
Mis

f in
o
o
- pr

Leave wallet in car - only take enough $

for 1 beer
Lock and key on partners beer coolers
Unlimited supply of Near Beer in Red
Dog bottles (shhh - Dont tell Larry)

Put a Label on Old Reliable putter where he

always sees it when putting
Interlock grip, close stance
Page 28

6-Sigma Example - Control Phase

More of Larrys Control Plan
SPC Control Chart
Use the mean +/- 3 sigma limits as
calculated from the Improve Phase data
Continue Data Collection on Vital Xs
Larry to track drinks per round
Okay, hes got a plan.
Is there any risk associated with it?

Page 29

6-Sigma Example - Control Phase

Identify the risk elements

(schedule, cost,
technical)
Assign ratings (high (3),
med(2), low(1))
Prioritize elements
(probability & impact)
Identify Risk Abatement
plans
Incorporate into Larrys
Control plan

Risk Assessment
RISK
Team doesnt invite nondrinkers
old Reliable craps out
Cannot use interlocking
grip
Something else goes
wrong in game
Quit golf - no fun without
drinking
Might "find" more drinks
on the course

PROB.

IMPACT

TOTAL

2
1

3
3

6
3

Giving
Givingup
updrinking
drinkingisisaarisk!
risk!
Need
Needan
anAbatement
AbatementPlan
Plan

Page 30

6-Sigma Example - Control Phase

Abatement Planning

IfIfhe
hedrinks
drinksmoderately,
moderately,
can
canhe
hemaintain
maintainan
animprovement?
improvement?
ScatterPlot/Fitted Line Regression

P utts

54

44
Y=

36.25 + 2X

R-Squared = 0.872

Expected
34
Outcome
0

Drinks

Realistic
Tolerance

The
TheLinear
LinearRegression
Regressionpredicts
predicts
that
1
2
drinks
will
add
that 1 - 2 drinks will addonly
onlyaa
few
fewputts.
putts.
Page 31

6-Sigma Example - Control Phase

Monitoring the SPC Chart
99! Out of Control!
UCL = 96.91

LCL = 83.23

What happened here?

Lets look at the data!

Page 32

6-Sigma Example - Control Phase

Does Larrys Control Plan Work?
How did Larry get four drinks?
Was this risk in the Risk
Assessment / Abatement Plan?
Yes!
Is there an Abatement Plan?
Yes!

Score
89
91
88
90
99
91
88
89
90
93
91

Then implement the Abatement

Plan immediately.
Stuff happens - so we do
Risk Assessment / Abatement!!

Drinks
1
1
1
2
4
2
0
1
2
2
1

Page 33

6-Sigma Example - Control Phase

Did the Abatement Work?
UCL

Control Chart
says Yes!

LCL

Process Capability Analysis

Low er Spec

Upper Spec

Capability Analysis says Yes!

He has reached Zlt = 5.7 Sigma!
(Zst at Measure was 5.64)
Success!

80.0

82.5

85.0

87.5

90.0

92.5

95.0

97.5

100.0

Post
Pp

1.94

Targ

Mean

90.1818

%>USL Exp

0.00

PPM>USL Exp

PPU

1.90

USL

100.000

Mean+3s

95.3464

Obs

0.00

Obs

PPL

1.97

LSL

80.000

Mean-3s

85.0173

%<LSL Exp

0.00

PPM<LSL Exp

Ppk

1.90

0.018

1.7215

Obs

0.00

Obs

11.000

Cpm

Page 34

Glossary of Terms

ZLT - Overall (Long Term) process capability, ZLT process

ZST - Best (Short Term) process capability, ZST process

Zshift = ZLT - ZST

DPU - Defects Per Unit

DPO - Defects Per Opportunity
DPMO - Defects Per Million Opportunities
PPM - Parts Per Million
FTY - First Time Yield
Cp - Capability Index (best process capability)

Cpk - Actual Capability Index (measure of process shift)

CPU - Capability index for upper spec. limit

CPL - Capability index for lower spec. limit
CTQ - Critical To Quality characteristic
Gage R&R - Gage Repeatability & Reproducibility
QFD - Quality Functional Deployment
Sigma - is a measure of variability (standard deviation)
NPI/EDC - New Process Introduction/Engine Development Cycle

Page 35