You cannot solve the problem with the same

thinking that created the problem Albert

Einstein

Philippine 2040
BAU and alternative scenarios
Based on T21 Philippines V3.1
By Weishuang Qu, Ph.D.
Millennium Institute
August, 2015

Major topics
1. BAU (Business-as-Usual) scenario
2. Alternative scenarios
2.1 Fiscal collection
2.2 Budget allocation
2.3 Energy
2.4 Total fertility and labor
2.5 Consumption and investment

1. BAU Scenario
Major assumptions of BAU
1.1 Population, labor and education
1.2 Food and nutrition
1.3 Water
1.4 Land
1.5 Energy
1.6 GDP and income

BAU Major Assumptions

No major/sudden policy changes,

No climate change impacts,
No social and political disturbances,
No natural disasters,
No financial crisis, and
No war.

1.1 Population, labor, education

in 2040

Population: 137 M
Total fertility: 1.98 (3.06 now)
Average life expectancy: 75.5 (69 now)
Labor force: 65 M (43 M now)
Average years of schooling: 9.8 (8.7 now)
Population pyramids (next page)

Population pyramids
history\base
Data-Philippines

6M

4.5 M

Population Pyramid for 2010

Male
Female
age 100 and over
age 95-99
age 90-94
age 85-89
age 80-84
age 75-79
age 70-74
age 65-69
age 60-64
age 55-59
age 50-54
age 45-49
age 40-44
age 35-39
age 30-34
age 25-29
age 20-24
age 15-19
age 10-14
age 5-9
age 0-4
3 M 1.5 M
0
0 1.5 M

history\base
Data-Philippines

3 M 4.5 M

6M

6M

4.5 M

3M

Population Pyramid for 2040

Male
Female
age 100 and over
age 95-99
age 90-94
age 85-89
age 80-84
age 75-79
age 70-74
age 65-69
age 60-64
age 55-59
age 50-54
age 45-49
age 40-44
age 35-39
age 30-34
age 25-29
age 20-24
age 15-19
age 10-14
age 5-9
age 0-4
1.5 M
0
0
1.5 M

3M

4.5 M

6M

1.2 Food and nutrition

Country area: 30 M Ha
Arable land: 11 M Ha (to support 100 M people)
Cereal: 50%, multi-cropping 1.3
Cereal yield: 3.53 T/Ha now, 4.85 T/Ha in 2040
Cereal production: 27 M T now, 37 M T in 2040

Meat production: 3.06 MT 2013, 7.7 MT in 2040

Fish production: 2.5 MT now to 2030
Average daily calorie and protein intake from
domestic sources remain flat to 2040
Could this mean substantial food import?

1.3 Water
Agriculture, domestic, and industry water
demand
Water withdrawal (demand) is about 18%
of renewable water resource now, and
may exceed 21% by 2040;
Access to improved water source over
90% now
Access to improved sanitation at 75% now

1.4 Land
Agriculture (arable and pasture), forest,
settlement, and other land
Arable land (11 M Ha) is probably at its
peak?
Forest land
Settlement land will increase with
population size

1.5 Energy: electric power

Electric power demand not fully met, as
consumption is constrained by supply
Power from fossil fuels is 70%
Oil and coal are mostly imported, thus it makes
more sense to develop renewables
Current capacities of hydro (3600 MW),
geothermal (2000 MW), wind and solar
Potential capacities of renewables to be
explored

Energy contd
Discovered reserves are coal (315 MT), oil
(140 MBL), gas (3,500 BCF)
Big off-shore potential for oil and gas
Without further discovery, coal production
may stay below the level of about 10
MT/Year for the future

1.6 GDP and income

During 1990 2013:

Real GDP growth averaged 4%

Per worker output growth only 1%
Investment/GDP ratio: about 0.2
Low FDI (1.5% of GDP)
High private factor income (20% of GDP)
Due to population growth, per person income growth
was much lower than GDP growth

T21 generates 4.5 6% for 2015 2040

2 Alternative scenarios
2.1 Fiscal collection
2.2 Budget allocation
2.3 Energy
2.4 Total fertility and labor
2.5 Consumption and investment

Thank You!
Thank you!
Your questions are welcome!
www.millennium-institute.org
wq@millennium-institute.org