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Maximizeavariablethatiscorrelatedwiththevalueofthefirm.
Thereareseveralchoicesforsuchavariable.Itcouldbe
anaccountingvariable,suchasearningsorreturnoninvestment
amarketingvariable,suchasmarketshare
acashflowvariable,suchascashflowreturnoninvestment(CFROI)
ariskadjustedcashflowvariable,suchasEconomicValueAdded(EVA)
Theadvantagesofusingthesevariablesarethatthey
AreoftensimplerandeasiertousethanDCFvalue.
Thedisadvantageisthatthe
Simplicitycomesatacost;thesevariablesarenotperfectlycorrelated
withDCFvalue.
Aswath Damodaran
TheEconomicValueAdded(EVA)isameasureofsurplusvalue
createdonaninvestment.
Definethereturnoncapital(ROC)tobethetruecashflowreturnon
capitalearnedonaninvestment.
Definethecostofcapitalastheweightedaverageofthecostsofthe
differentfinancinginstrumentsusedtofinancetheinvestment.
EVA=(ReturnonCapitalCostofCapital)(CapitalInvestedinProject)
TheCFROIisameasureofthecashflowreturnmadeoncapital
CFROI=(AdjustedEBIT(1t)+Depreciation&OtherNoncash
Charges)/CapitalInvested
Aswath Damodaran
CapitalInvested=29500MillionSfr
ReturnonCapital=12.77%
CostofCapital=8.85%
EconomicValueAddedin1995=(.1277.0885)(29,500Million
Sfr)=1154.50MillionSfr
Aswath Damodaran
TsingtaoBrewery,aChineseBeermanufacturer,hasmakesignificant
capitalinvestmentsinthelasttwoyears,andplanstoincreaseits
exportsovertime.Using1996numbers,Tsingtaohadthefollowing
fundamentals:
ReturnonCapital=1.28%
CostofCapital=15.51%
CapitalInvested=3,015millionCC
EconomicValueAddedin1996=429millionCC
Aswath Damodaran
EquityInvestedattheendof1995=$10,451Million
NetIncomeEarnedin1996=$1,574Million
CostofEquityfor1996=7%+0.94(5.5%)=12.17%
Iusedtheriskfreeratefromthestartof1996
EquityEVAforJ.P.Morgan=$1574Million($10,451Million)
(.1217)=$303Million
Aswath Damodaran
EVAisameasureofdollarsurplusvalue,notthepercentage
differenceinreturns.
Itisclosestinboththeoryandconstructtothenetpresentvalueofa
projectincapitalbudgeting,asopposedtotheIRR.
Thevalueofafirm,inDCFterms,canbewrittenintermsoftheEVA
ofprojectsinplaceandthepresentvalueoftheEVAoffuture
projects.
Aswath Damodaran
A Simple Illustration
Assumethatyouhaveafirmwith
IA=100
ROCA=15%
year)
WACCA=10%
WACCNewProjects=10%
Ineachyear15,assumethat
I=10(Investmentsareatbeginningofeach
ROCNewProjects=15%
Assumethatalloftheseprojectswillhaveinfinitelives.
Afteryear5,assumethat
Investmentswillgrowat5%ayearforever
ROConprojectswillbeequaltothecostofcapital(10%)
Aswath Damodaran
Aswath Damodaran
=$100
=$50
=$5
=$4.55
=$4.13
=$3.76
=$3.42
=$170.86
Base
Y ear
EBIT(1t):AssetsinPlace
Y ear
EBIT(1t):InvestmentsYr 1
EBIT(1t):InvestmentsYr 2
EBIT(1t):InvestmentsYr 3
EBIT(1t):InvestmentsYr 4
$1.50 $1.50
EBIT(1t):InvestmentsYr 5
$1.50
TotalEBIT(1t)
NetCapitalExpenditures
FCFF
Aswath Damodaran
Term.
$100.00
NewInvestment
CumulativeNewInvestment
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
10%
CostofCapital
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
Aswath Damodaran
10
FCFF
PVofFCFF
TerminalValue
$236.25
PVofTerminalValue
$146.69
ValueofFirm
Aswath Damodaran
TermYear
$170.85
11
Term.Y ear
ReturnonCapital
12.77%
12.77%
12.77%
12.77%
12.77%
12.77%
12.77%
CostofCapital
8.85%
8.85%
8.85%
8.85%
8.85%
8.85%
8.85%
EBIT(1t)
5,523.38Fr
5,689.08Fr
WACC(Capital)
3,830.29Fr
3,945.20Fr
EVA
1,693.08Fr
1,743.88Fr
1,107.76Fr
PVofEVA
29,787.18Fr
PVofEVA=
25,121.24Fr
PVof1693.08Fr
growingat3%ayear
ValueofAssets
29,500.00Fr
inPlace=
ValueofFirm=
54,621.24Fr
ValueofDebt=
11,726.00Fr
ValueofEquity=
42,895.24Fr
ValuePerShar e=
1,088.16Fr
Aswath Damodaran
12
Terminal
Y ear
EBIT(1t)
5,523.38Fr
5,689.08Fr
+Deprecn
1,273.99Fr
1,350.42Fr
CapEx
2,154.45Fr
2,283.71Fr
417.29Fr
442.33Fr
4,225.62Fr
4,313.46Fr
ChangeinWC
FCFF
0.00Fr
755.00Fr
814.95Fr
879.66Fr
949.51Fr
1,024.90Fr
TerminalValue
WACC
151,113.54Fr
8.85%
8.85%
8.85%
8.85%
8.85%
8.85%
PVofFCFF
ValueofFirm=
54,621.24Fr
ValueofDebt=
11,726.00Fr
ValueofEquity=
42,895.24Fr
ValuePerShar e=
1,088.16Fr
Aswath Damodaran
8.85%
13
FirmsareoftenevaluatedbaseduponyeartoyearchangesinEVA
ratherthanthepresentvalueofEVAovertime.
Theadvantageofthiscomparisonisthatitissimpleanddoesnot
requirethemakingofforecastsaboutfutureearningspotential.
Anotheradvantageisthatitcanbebrokendownbyanyunitperson,
divisionetc.,aslongasoneiswillingtoassigncapitalandallocate
earningsacrossthesesameunits.
WhileitissimplerthanDCFvaluation,usingyearbyyearEVA
changescomesatacost.Inparticular,itisentirelypossiblethatafirm
whichfocusesonincreasingEVAonayeartoyearbasismayendup
beinglessvaluable.
Aswath Damodaran
14
Term.Y ear
ReturnonCapital
12.77%
12.77%
12.77%
12.77%
12.77%
12.77%
12.77%
CostofCapital
8.85%
8.85%
8.85%
8.85%
8.85%
8.85%
8.85%
EBIT(1t)
5,523.38Fr 5,689.08Fr
WACC(Capital)
3,830.29Fr 3,945.20Fr
EVA
1,693.08Fr 1,743.88Fr
PVofEVA
1,107.76Fr
29,787.18Fr
PVofEVA=
25,121.24Fr
PVof590.67Frgrowing
at3%ayear
ValueofAssets
29,500.00Fr
inPlace=
ValueofFirm=
54,621.24Fr
ValueofDebt=
11,726.00Fr
ValueofEquity
42,895.24Fr
Valueper Share=
Aswath Damodaran
1088.16Fr
15
1.IftheincreaseinEVAonayeartoyearbasishasbeen
accomplishedattheexpenseoftheEVAoffutureprojects.Inthis
case,thegainfromtheEVAinthecurrentyearmaybemorethan
offsetbythepresentvalueofthelossofEVAfromthefutureperiods.
Forexample,intheNestleexampleaboveassumethatthereturnon
capitalonyear1projectsincreasesto13.27%(fromtheexisting12.77%),
whilethecostofcapitalontheseprojectsstaysat8.85%.Ifthisincrease
invaluedoesnotaffecttheEVAonfutureprojects,thevalueofthefirm
willincrease.
If,however,thisincreaseinEVAinyear1isaccomplishedbyreducing
thereturnoncapitalonfutureprojectsto12.27%,thefirmvaluewill
actuallydecrease.
Aswath Damodaran
16
Term.Y ear
ReturnonCapital
12.77%
13.27%
12.27%
12.27%
12.27%
12.27%
12.27%
CostofCapital
8.85%
8.85%
8.85%
8.85%
8.85%
8.85%
8.85%
EBIT(1t)
5,478.29Fr 5,642.64Fr
WACC(Capital)
3,830.29Fr 3,948.89Fr
EVA
1,648.00Fr 1,693.75Fr
PVofEVA
1,078.27Fr
28,930.98Fr
PVofEVA=
24,509.62Fr
PVof590.67Frgrowing
at3%ayear
ValueofAssets
29,500.00Fr
inPlace=
ValueofFirm=
54,009.62Fr
ValueofDebt=
11,726.00Fr
ValueofEquity=
42,283.62Fr
ValuePerShare=
1,072.64Fr
Aswath Damodaran
17
2.WhentheincreaseinEVAisaccompaniedbyanincreaseinthe
costofcapital,eitherbecauseofhigheroperationalriskorchangesin
financialleverage,thefirmvaluemaydecreaseevenasEVA
increases.
Forinstance,intheexampleabove,assumethatthespreadstaysat3.91%
onallfutureprojectsbutthecostofcapitalincreasesto9.85%forthese
projects(from8.85%).Thevalueofthefirmwilldrop.
Aswath Damodaran
18
Term.Y ear
ReturnonCapital
12.77%
13.77%
13.77%
13.77%
13.77%
13.77%
13.77%
CostofCapital
8.85%
9.85%
9.85%
9.85%
9.85%
9.85%
9.85%
EBIT(1t)
5,660.96Fr 5,830.79Fr
WACC(Capital)
3,967.88Fr 4,384.43Fr
EVA
1,693.08Fr 1,446.36Fr
PVofEVA
1,058.25Fr
21,101.04Fr
PVofEVA=
18,669.84Fr
PVof590.67Frgrowing
at3%ayear
ValueofAssets
29,500.00Fr
inPlace=
ValueofFirm=
48,169.84Fr
ValueofDebt=
11,726.00Fr
ValueofEquity=
36,443.84Fr
ValuePerShar e=
924.50Fr
Aswath Damodaran
19
1,400.00Fr
1,200.00Fr
1,000.00Fr
800.00Fr
600.00Fr
400.00Fr
200.00Fr
0.00Fr
7.85%
Aswath Damodaran
8.85%
9.85%
10.85%
11.85%
12.85%
13.85%
14.85%
20
TherelationshipbetweenEVAandMarketValueChangesismore
complicatedthantheonebetweenEVAandFirmValue.
ThemarketvalueofafirmreflectsnotonlytheExpectedEVAof
AssetsinPlacebutalsotheExpectedEVAfromFutureProjects
Totheextentthattheactualeconomicvalueaddedissmallerthanthe
expectedEVAthemarketvaluecandecreaseeventhoughtheEVAis
higher.
Aswath Damodaran
21
Aswath Damodaran
22
Aswath Damodaran
23
2.Theleverageisstableandthecostofcapitalcannotbealteredeasilyby
theinvestmentdecisionsmadebythefirm.
[ThisminimizestheriskthatthehigherEVAisaccompaniedbyan
increaseinthecostofcapital]
3.Thefirmisinasectorwhereinvestorsanticipatelittleornotsurplus
returns;i.e.,firmsinthissectorareexpectedtoearntheircostof
capital.
[ThisminimizestheriskthattheincreaseinEVAislessthanwhatthe
marketexpectedittobe,leadingtoadropinthemarketprice.]
Aswath Damodaran
24
Aswath Damodaran
25
Aswath Damodaran
26
Truth1:Biasisendemicinvaluationandcanenterinsubtleandnot
sosubtleways.
Truth2.:Avaluationisneverpreciseandisneverquitedone.
Truth3:Complexitycomeswithacost;Moreinformationisnot
alwaysbetterthanlessinformation.
Aswath Damodaran
27
Approaches to Valuation
Discountedcashflowvaluation,wherewetry(sometimes
desperately)toestimatetheintrinsicvalueofanassetbyusingamix
oftheory,guessworkandprayer.
Relativevaluation,wherewepickagroupofassets,attachthename
comparabletothemandtellastory.
Contingentclaimvaluation,wherewetakethevaluationthatwedid
intheDCFvaluationanddivvyitupbetweenthepotentialthievesof
value(equity)andthepotentialvictimsofthiscrime(lenders)
Aswath Damodaran
28
Weallbelievemarketareinefficient,andthatwecanfindunderand
overvaluedassetsbecauseofoursuperiorintellect,models,
informationorsomecombinationofallthree.
SomeSoberingfacts:
7080%ofportfoliomanagersunderperformmarketindices.
TheVanguard500IndexfundispoisedtoovertaketheFidelityMagellan
fundasthelargestmutualfundintheUnitedStates.Inthelast5years,it
hasbeenthebestperforminglargemutualfundintheUnitedStates.
Themorepeopletrade,themoretheyseemtolose.
Astudyofmutualfundportfoliosdiscoveredthattheywouldhavemadea
higherreturn,iftheyhadfrozentheirportfoliosonJanuary1.
AstudyofindividualinvestorsbyTerrenceODeanalsonotedanegative
correlationbetweenreturnsearnedandtransactionsvolume(andthisisbefore
tradingcosts)
Aswath Damodaran
29
Whatisit:Indiscountedcashflowvaluation,thevalueofanassetis
thepresentvalueoftheexpectedcashflowsontheasset.
PhilosophicalBasis:Everyassethasanintrinsicvaluethatcanbe
estimated,baseduponitscharacteristicsintermsofcashflows,growth
andrisk.
InformationNeeded:Tousediscountedcashflowvaluation,youneed
toestimatethelifeoftheasset
toestimatethecashflowsduringthelifeoftheasset
toestimatethediscountratetoapplytothesecashflowstogetpresentvalue
MarketInefficiency:Marketsareassumedtomakemistakesinpricing
assetsacrosstime,andareassumedtocorrectthemselvesovertime,as
newinformationcomesoutaboutassets.
Aswath Damodaran
30
Value
Length
Cash
Expected
Firm
Forever
Terminal
CF
Discount
.........
inofValue
stable
Rate
Growth
Period
growth:
of High
Growth
1 isflows
2
3
4
5
n
DISCOUNTED
CASHFLOW
GrowsValue
Firm:Cost
Firm:
Pre-debt
Growth
at constant
ofofCapital
inFirm
cashrate
flow
Operating
forever
Earnings
Equity: Value
After of
Growth
Cost
debt
ofEquity
inEquity
cashIncome/EPS
Net
flows
Aswath Damodaran
VALUATION
31
Cashflow
Expected
Firm
Forever
Terminal
FCFF
.........
Cost
Weights
Discount
Value
Riskfree
Beta
R
X
Base
Country
Did
Will
IAre
Is
your
the
there
length
you
these
is
Premium
of
company
default
ofrisk
ROC
stable
growth
beta
riskless
inconsider
include
reinvesting
using
Equity
Debt
Risk
sufficient
Operating
Value=
at
Rate
of
stable
Growth=
weights
to
premium
growth
WACC=
Firm
spread
growth
arate
rate
exposed
:bottomgrowth:
FCFF
change
Assets
period
inaCost
the
historical
toconsistent
of
/(r-g
Equity
with VALUATION
+ Equity)) + Cost of Debt (Debt/(Debt+ Equity))
1Equity
2
3
4
5
n
n+1
n) (Equity/(Debt
+sisk
DISCOUNTED
CASHFLOW
EBIT
ROC*
Grows
(Riskfree
Based
-+
Premium
normalize
acquisitions
only
likely
rate
consistent
enough
and
over
up
same
data
additional
or
reflective
competitive
Measures
Premium
Cash
implied
beta
leverage
<non-cash
time?
for
to
(1-t)
currency
growth
Reinv
on
at&
change
that
to
a of
constant
Rate
Non-op
historical
Market
country
risk
create
with
for
market
advantages?
and
reflects
Rate
rate
average
premium?
WC
your
and
Value
Assets
in
risk?
rate
risk
terms
your
- (Cap
forever
+
=
earnings?
R&D?
and
in
economy?
reinvestment
stable
consistent
business
as
risk
companys
Default
Value
the
the
investment
premium?
smooth?
future?
growth?
cash
Ex
ofrisk
Spread)
-Firm
with
risk?
Depr)
flows?
rate?
and current
(1-t)
- Value
stable
leverage?
Change
growth?
of in
Debt
WC
= Value
FCFF of Equity
- Equity Options
= Value of Equity in Stock
Aswath Damodaran
32
Choose a
CashFlow
Dividends
ExpectedDividendsto
Stockholders
CashflowstoEquity
NetIncome
(1
Aswath Damodaran
Three-Stage Growth
g
|
High Growth Stable
|
Transition Stable
High Growth
33
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
DDMSt
Aswath Damodaran
DDM2
DDM3
FCFEst
FCFE2
FCFE3
FCFFSt
FCFF2
FCFF3
FCFFGen
34
30
25
20
15
10
0
Undervalued Undervalued 33- Undervalued 10- Undervalued 0more than 50%
50%
33%
10%
Aswath Damodaran
Overvalued 010%
35
Aswath Damodaran
Price
$1.29
$10.03
$21.25
$35.50
$1.31
$0.30
$47.89
$26.70
$0.18
$8.40
Model Used
FCFF2
FCFF2
FCFFSt
DDMSt
Fcff2
FCFFGen
FCFF2
FCFFGen
FCFF3
FCFESt
Recommendation
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
BUY
Sell
BUY
Buy
Buy
Buy
36
Price/Share
0.8
17.15
$9.50
Aswath Damodaran
DCF Value
% Undervalued
4.64
-82.76%
$78.82
78.24%
$43.10
77.96%
0.59 $
2.30
-74.35%
69.86
13.89
$4.10
16.22
$4.20
13.47
$4.83
202.66
38.47
$10.04
$37.70
$9.36
29.01
$9.96
-65.53%
-63.89%
-59.16%
-56.98%
-55.13%
-53.57%
-51.51%
37
180.00%
160.00%
140.00%
120.00%
100.00%
Top 10 Buy Recommendations
S&P 500
80.00%
60.00%
40.00%
20.00%
0.00%
Fall 1996 (Dec 96)
Aswath Damodaran
38
About60%ofallbuyrecommendationsmakemoney;about45%of
sellrecommendationsbeatthemarket.
Therearetwoorthreebigwinnersineachperiod.
AppleComputerinDecember1996
CheckpointSoftwareinJune1999
Stocksonwhichthereisdisagreementamongdifferentpeopletendto
doworsethanstocksonwhichthereisnodisagreement
StocksthatareundervaluedonbothaDCFandrelativevaluation
basisdobetterthanstocksthatareundervaluedononlyoneapproach.
Aswath Damodaran
39
Aswath Damodaran
Price
$24.84
0.14
$5.03
$47.75
$19.44
$15.87
$38.05
$9.50
$14.77
$0.18
$3.90
ModelUsed
FCFFGen
FCFF2
FCFF2
FCFE3
FCFF3
FCFFGen
FCFE3
FCFFGen
FCFFGen
FCFF2
FCFFGen
Valuepershare
$12.95
0.07
$2.30
$18.73
$6.75
$4.35
$10.28
1.67
$2.59
$0.01
$0.19
Recommendation
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Buy
40
Aswath Damodaran
Price
55.02
$11.36
$9.97
9.89
$ 10.39
$10.78
$5.41
$31.37
3.23
$27.29
$13.90
0.83
87.56%
92.88%
109.83%
113.31%
139.40%
153.25%
170.25%
228.78%
307.23%
41
Relative Valuation
Whatisit?:Thevalueofanyassetcanbeestimatedbylookingathowthe
marketpricessimilarorcomparableassets.
PhilosophicalBasis:Theintrinsicvalueofanassetisimpossible(orcloseto
impossible)toestimate.Thevalueofanassetiswhateverthemarketis
willingtopayforit(baseduponitscharacteristics)
InformationNeeded:Todoarelativevaluation,youneed
anidenticalasset,oragroupofcomparableorsimilarassets
astandardizedmeasureofvalue(inequity,thisisobtainedbydividingtheprice
byacommonvariable,suchasearningsorbookvalue)
andiftheassetsarenotperfectlycomparable,variablestocontrolforthe
differences
MarketInefficiency:Pricingerrorsmadeacrosssimilarorcomparable
assetsareeasiertospot,easiertoexploitandaremuchmorequickly
corrected.
Aswath Damodaran
42
Standardizing Value
Pricescanbestandardizedusingacommonvariablesuchasearnings,
cashflows,bookvalueorrevenues.
Aswath Damodaran
EarningsMultiples
BookValueMultiples
Revenues
IndustrySpecificVariable(Price/kwh,Pricepertonofsteel....)
43
AnnaKournikovaknowsPE.Ordoesshe?
8timesEBITDAisnotalwayscheap
Toomanypeoplewhouseamultiplehavenoideawhatitscrosssectional
distributionis.Ifyoudonotknowwhatthecrosssectionaldistributionofa
multipleis,itisdifficulttolookatanumberandpassjudgmentonwhetheritistoo
highorlow.
Youcannotgetawaywithoutmakingassumptions
Inuse,thesamemultiplecanbedefinedindifferentwaysbydifferentusers.When
comparingandusingmultiples,estimatedbysomeoneelse,itiscriticalthatwe
understandhowthemultipleshavebeenestimated
Itiscriticalthatweunderstandthefundamentalsthatdriveeachmultiple,andthe
natureoftherelationshipbetweenthemultipleandeachvariable.
Therearenoperfectcomparables
Aswath Damodaran
Definingthecomparableuniverseandcontrollingfordifferencesisfarmore
difficultinpracticethanitisintheory.
44
V/EBIT=f(g,
VS=f(Oper
PE=Payout
PEG=Payout
PBV=ROE
PS=
Value
Value/FCFF=(1+g)/
Value/EBIT(1-t)
Value/EBIT=(1+g)(1VS=
Equity
Firm
PE=f(g,
PEG=f(g,
PBV=f(ROE,payout,
PS=f(Net
V/FCFF=f(g,
V/EBIT(1-t)=f(g,
Oper
Net
Multiples
ofMultiples
payout,
Stock
Firm
Margin
Mgn,
payout,
Margin
(Payout
Mgn,
Ratio
RIR,
WACC)
ratio
==payout,
FCFF
=
risk)
RIR,
(Payout
RIR,
DPS
WACC,
risk)
(1+g)
(1ratio)
g,WACC)
risk)
g,
/(k
WACC)
ratio)
t)risk)
1g,
1/(WACC
e - g) -g)
(1+g)/g(r-g)
(1+g)/(r-g)
(WACC-g)
(1RiR)/(1-t)(WACC-g)
RIR)
(1+g)/(r-g)
RIR)/(WACC-g)
(1+g)/(WACC-g)
Aswath Damodaran
45
Estimating a Multiple
Usecomparablefirms,computetheaveragemultipleandadjust
subjectivelyfordifferences
Usecomparablefirms,runaregressionofmultipleagainst
fundamentalsandestimatepredictedmultipleforfirm
Usemarket,runaregressionofmultipleagainstfundamentalsand
estimateapredictedmultipleforfirm
Aswath Damodaran
46
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
PBV
Aswath Damodaran
VBV
PE
VEBITDA
Sector Specific
PEG
PS
VS
47
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
Undervalued Undervalued 33- Undervalued 10- Undervalued 0more than 50%
50%
33%
10%
DCF Valuaton (S2002)
Aswath Damodaran
Overvalued 010%
48
35
30
25
20
DCF Valuation
Relative Valuation
15
10
0
Undervalued Undervalued 33- Undervalued 10- Undervalued 0more than 50%
50%
33%
10%
Aswath Damodaran
Overvalued 010%
Overvalued
more than
100%
49
35
30
25
DCF Valuation
20
Relative Valuation
15
10
Undervalued
50-100%
Aswath Damodaran
Undervalued
10-50%
Undervalued 0-
Overvalued 0-
10%
Overvalued 10-
10%
Overvalued 50-
50%
Overvalued
100%
>100%
50
35
30
25
20
DCF Valuation
Relative Valuation
15
10
Undervalued
Undervalued
more than
33-50%
50%
Aswath Damodaran
Undervalued
10-33%
Undervalued
Overvalued
0-10%
Overvalued
0-10%
10-50%
Overvalued
50-100%
Overvalued
more than
100%
51
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
<50%
50-67%
67-90%
90%-100%
100-110%
110%-150%
150-200%
>200%
Aswath Damodaran
52
Aswath Damodaran
Pricepershare
Multiple
0.14
ValueSales
$1.29
PS
$1.18
PS
$2.12
PS
$3.90
VS
7.74
PBV
$21.25
PB
47.89
PBV
$9.50
V/EBITDA
$8.40
VS
$25.88
EV/Sales
RelativeValue
Recommendation
1.47
Sell
$12.55
Buy
$10.18
Sell
$14.11
Sell
$14.97
Buy
29.16
BUY
$79.13
Buy
143.8
BUY
20.17
Sell
$17.30
Buy
$51.08
Sell
53
Company
WilliamsControls
NetcentivesInc.
Salon.com
MediasetGroupS.p.A.(Euros)
Terayon(4/25/01)
Netradio
Priceline
Oracle
InfosysTechnologies(USD)
InternetSecuritiesSystems
CharlesSchwab
MatavCableSystems
Aswath Damodaran
Price
Multiple
RelativeValue
%UnderValued
$1.50
PE
$40.15
96.26%
0.8
PS
12.8
93.75%
$ 0.59
PS
$ 7.45
92.08%
11.90
PE
32.00
62.81%
$5.30
PS
$13.75
61.45%
$ 0.35
VS
$ 0.89
60.67%
$4.20
PS
$10.30
59.22%
$16.90
PE
$37.78
55.27%
$ 69.86
PEG
$ 150.16
53.48%
$ 46.28
PEG
$ 99.09
53.29%
$20.06
PBV
$41.79
52.00%
39.37
FV/Subscriber
80.84
51.30%
54
Company
Procter & Gamble
Yahoo
Cablevision
Sprint PCS
Krispy Kreme
Whole Foods Market Inc.
MGM
Hollywood Entertainment Corp.
Tivo
Morton's Restaurant Group
Krispy Kreme
Creditrisk Monitor.com
Aswath Damodaran
Pricepershare
Multiple
RelativeValue
Recommendation
$
89.80
PE
$
40.49
Sell
$14.77
PS
$6.52
Sell
$
25.80
PBV
$
8.42
Sell
$
11.30
Value/BV
$
2.96
Sell
$38.30
PE
$9.89
Sell
$
47.75
V/S
$
12.17
Sell
$16.27
Value/Sales
2.91
BUY
$19.05
VBV
$3.11
Buy
$
3.799
PS
$
0.42
Hold
$13.03
V/BV
$1.16
Sell
$
38.05
PEG
$
1.88
Sell
$
0.30
VS
$
0.00
Sell
55
Company
Starbucks
Aswath Damodaran
Price
Multiple
RelativeValue
%OverValued
$37.16
PS
$16.83
120.80%
$
62.50
PE $
25.74
142.81%
$12.86
PS
$4.99
157.72%
16.72
VS
$5.48
205.11%
$ 10.20
PEG
$
3.15
223.81%
16.02
P/S
4.48
257.59%
18.55
PEG
4.98
272.49%
2,540,000
PBV
543,000
367.77%
$11.54
VS
$2.17
431.80%
$30.20
PE
$5.05
498.02%
$ 20.04
EV/EBITDA
$
2.81
613.17%
55.02
V/S
5.47
905.85%
56
Optionshaveseveralfeatures
Theyderivetheirvaluefromanunderlyingasset,whichhasvalue
Thepayoffonacall(put)optionoccursonlyifthevalueofthe
underlyingassetisgreater(lesser)thananexercisepricethatisspecified
atthetimetheoptioniscreated.Ifthiscontingencydoesnotoccur,the
optionisworthless.
Theyhaveafixedlife
Anysecuritythatsharesthesefeaturescanbevaluedasanoption.
Aswath Damodaran
57
Equityinadeeplytroubledfirmafirmwithnegativeearningsand
highleveragecanbeviewedasanoptiontoliquidatethatisheldby
thestockholdersofthefirm.Viewedassuch,itisacalloptiononthe
assetsofthefirm.
Thereservesownedbynaturalresourcefirmscanbeviewedascall
optionsontheunderlyingresource,sincethefirmcandecidewhether
andhowmuchoftheresourcetoextractfromthereserve,
Thepatentownedbyafirmoranexclusivelicenseissuedtoafirm
canbeviewedasanoptionontheunderlyingproduct(project).The
firmownsthisoptionforthedurationofthepatent.
Aswath Damodaran
58
Numberoffirmsvaluedusingoptionmodels=23
Medianincreaseinvaluefromtheoptionmodel=87%
Whattypesoffirmsdoyouthinkhadthebiggestincreaseinvalue?
Aswath Damodaran
59
100
90
80
70
60
Buy
Sell
Hold
50
40
30
20
10
0
Spring 2002
Aswath Damodaran
Spring 2001
Fall 00
Spring '00
Fall 99 (Dec)
Spr 99 (May)
Fall 98 (Dec)
60
Value Enhancement
Foranactiontocreatevalue,ithasto
Increasecashflowsfromassetsinplace
Increasetheexpectedgrowthrate
Increasethelengthofthegrowthperiod
Reducethecostofcapital
Thevalueenhancementmeasuresthathavebeenwidelypromotedas
newanddifferentareneither.
EVAandCFROIhavetheirrootsintraditionaldiscountedcashflow
models
Measures(likeEVAandCFROI)donotcreatevalue;managersdo.
Aswath Damodaran
61
ChoicesChoicesChoices
Free Cashflow
to Firm
Aswath Damodaran
62
Assetcharacteristics
Marketability
Cashflowgeneratingcapacity
Uniqueness
Yourcharacteristics
Timehorizon
Reasonsfordoingthevaluation
Beliefsaboutmarkets
Aswath Damodaran
63
Asaninvestor,givenyourinvestmentphilosophy,timehorizonand
beliefsaboutmarkets(thatyouwillbeinvestingin),whichofthethe
approachestovaluationwouldyouchoose?
DiscountedCashFlowValuation
RelativeValuation
Neither.Ibelievethatmarketsareefficient.
Aswath Damodaran
64
Itsallinthefundamentals.
Focusonthebigpicture;dontletthedetailstripyouup.
Keepyourperspective;itisonlyavaluation.
Ifyouhavetochoosebetweenvaluationskillsandluck.
Aswath Damodaran
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Aswath Damodaran
66