Dollar Index (Daily) Wave “c” has ended and we’re are now in the middle of wave “d” of a

larger triangle. A good target for the “d” would be 81.70, which is
61.8% of the “b” wave. (As with most triangles, the alternating legs
will be related by a Fibonacci number.)
“b”
89.62

(A)
-b-

“d”
-a- 81.70
x

-b-
w/a

-c- -a- x
77.69 w -b-
“a” “e”
-c- x/b (B)
y -a-
Reprinted from 1/17/2010 74.33
-c-
z of “c”

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Dollar Index (120 minute)
From where the correction ended in the 76’s, we can only -a-
see a three wave move higher, which makes some sense (c)
if the move down to the 76.67 was an x-wave. The action
w off the 78.81 high looks ‘corrective,’ meaning the shorter
-c- term trend is still higher; however, bulls may need to
(5)
78.45
endure a retracement back to 77.65 or even 76.93.

(a)

(b)
Reprinted from 1/25/2010

76.67

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 -c-

Dollar Index (180 minute)

(b)
This looks corrective.

-a-
w 78.81
78.45
(c)
-b-

(a)

The DXY count is getting a bit strange now. The waves higher have mostly been “corrective”
in nature from the 74.33 lows. It’s been very difficult to count out any impulsive action. I
guess this should be expected for something that should be a “d”-wave. 81.70 remains a
very likely target for a conclusion to this wave (as highlighted on the first slide). The fact that
the waves higher are not impulsive should not discourage bulls. The DXY is clearly in an
uptrend channel at this point and the burden is now on the bears to prove otherwise.
74.33
“c”

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Dollar Index (60 minute) (b)

This “mess” here is what makes the

short term outlook difficult to understand.

-a-

(c)
-b-

(a)

One of the good things about keeping various tools in the “toolbag” is that you
don’t “need” to understand the wave count to know what levels are important or
where to place the “stop” orders to preserve gains (or mitigate loss). From the
76.60 lows, the 23.6% comes in at 78.84, which, coincidentally, is a nice chart
support area developed from the prior -a- wave high. A decisive break of 78.84
(call it 78.70) should send the day- trading DXY bulls to the exits for a period of
“reevaluation.”
x

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Gold Futures ~ Feb (Daily)
Not much has changed with Gold since the last look on 1/22/10. This market does not look
“healthy” longer term. The best case for gold bulls is that the market might be at the lower end
of a congestion zone of some kind, and there might be some kind of “last gasp” rally back to
the 1150’s. Other than that, this is a picture of a market that “has fallen and can’t get back up.”
1104 and 1119 look like first and second levels of resistance for this week. Breaks of those
levels should cause short term Gold bears some anxiety.

“x”

1119

1104

b
“w”

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Gold Futures ~ Feb (Daily)

One of the more important technical concepts that I’ve learned in the last couple of years (from Neely) is that
bigger moves can end with a ‘triangle.’ Classical chartist usually think of triangles as ‘continuation/congestion’
patterns that are only resting points in a bigger move. However, the reality is that triangles often ‘end’ complex
corrections. For instance, I can see two triangles on this chart (highlighted) that were turning points in the
market. I haven’t attempted a public wave count in a few weeks, but something seems to have ended at $1,142.
If that’s the case, then new bears do no want to see a break of $1,121 with $1,142 now becoming HUGE
resistance.

“x”

Reprinted from 1/22/2010 “w” a

118’05

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. This report is technical
commentary only. The author is NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading
Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the author’s interpretation of technical analysis. The
author may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions opposite of
what may by inferred by this report. The information contained in this commentary is taken from
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or completeness thereof and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading
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