Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Stocks vs Bonds
2.
Evolution of Variance
Measures in Studying MPT
Individual Assets/Asset Class Variance
(Return for Period Mean Return) ^2
Paired Covariances
(Asset 1 Return Mean) x (Asset 2 Return Mean)
Portfolio Variance
For 2 assets: Asset 1 Variance + Asset 2 Variance +
2 x Weighted Covariance
Background Assumptions
As an investor you want to maximize the
returns for a given level of risk.
Your portfolio includes all of your assets,
not just financial assets
The relationship between the returns for
assets in the portfolio is important.
A good portfolio is not simply a collection
of individually good investments.
4
Characteristics of Probability
Distributions
1) Mean: most likely value
2) Variance or standard deviation
3) Skewness
* If a distribution is approximately normal,
the distribution is described by
characteristics 1 and 2.
10
11
12
2 2
w
i i w i w jCovij
i 1
i 1 j1
where :
COVAR(A1,A2)
COVAR(A1,A2)
p2
Covar(A1,A1) = A12
Note that there are now 4 terms (2 x 2)
for 2 assets
16
Asset 1
Asset 2
Covar(A1,A1) Covar(A1,A2)
Covar(A2,A1) Covar(A2,A2)
Asset 1
Asset 2
.60
.40
.60 .60x.60xCovar(A1,A1) .60x.40xCovar(A1,A2)
.40 .40x.60xCovar(A2,A1) .40x.40xCovar(A2,A2)
18
1.0
Hedging
0.0
-1.0
Correlation
Coefficient
20
23
Efficient
Frontier
24
25
Standard Deviation of
the Market Portfolio
(systematic risk)
26
Optimization
What is it?
What do we optimize?
The efficient frontier is a series of portfolios
optimized (lowest variance) for a series of
possible E(r)s
We graph some sub-optimal portfolios
(below the kink)
30
U3
U2
U1
Y
U3
U2
X
U1
E( port )
31
Utility Calculations
For a Risk Aversion Level of 4:
Risk-Free Rate = 5.00
Utility Curve
Graph line represents the portfolios with utility equal to
sample Port
Risk aversion level (A) is constant
E(r )
20.00
18.00
16.00
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
Indifference Asset/Port
34
22.00
1176.00
0.005
16.12
10.24
4.36
-1.52
-7.40
-13.28
-19.16
-25.04
-30.92
-36.80
11.24
430.14
0.005
9.09
6.94
4.79
2.64
0.49
-1.66
-3.81
-5.97
-8.12
-10.27
DODIX
7.78
43.19
0.005
7.56
7.35
7.13
6.92
6.70
6.48
6.27
6.05
5.84
5.62
FJPNX
8.21
2660.23
0.005
-5.09
-18.39
-31.69
-44.99
-58.30
-71.60
-84.90
-98.20
-111.50
-124.80
Risk Free
5.00
0.00
0.005
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
35
40.00
20.00
0.00
Utility
-20.00
10
Example
VFINX
-40.00
DODIX
-60.00
FJPNX
-80.00
RiskfFree
-100.00
-120.00
-140.00
Risk Aversion Factor
36
20.00
16.00
Utility
12.00
8.00
Example
4.00
VFINX
0.00
DODIX
-4.00
10
FJPNX
RiskfFree
-8.00
-12.00
-16.00
-20.00
Risk Aversion Factor
37
39
8%
41
8%
42
y>1
8%
43
y>1
8%
44
E (r)
CAL
4%
y<1
0
y>1
8%
45
E (r)
4%
y<1
0
y>1
8%
46
Annual
= .36 x 4
= .60 x SQRT(4)
1.44
1.20
Note: 4=periods
/ year
Monthly
m2
= .12 x 12
Annual
1.44
47