Risk Assessment

Concept, Goal and Products, Tools and Issues

Lecture # 3
Dr. Imam Khambali, ST., MPPM.

Contents
1.

Introduction & Definiton

2.

Risk Analysis/Assessment Process

3.

Goals and Products of Risk Analysis

4.

Elements in Implementation.

1.

Issues to be Considered in Implementing RA

2.

Techniques to be used in Disaster Risk Assessment

Introduction & Definition

Introduction

Risk analysis is based on the recognition that

risk is the result of the link between hazard and
vulnerability.
The goal of risk analysis is to use this link to
estimate and evaluate the possible consequences
and impacts.
This involves impacts at the social, economic and
environmental levels.
Hazard and vulnerability analysis are parts of risk
analysis and are inseparable activities.

Hazard
A potentially damaging physical event,
phenomenon or human activity that may
cause the loss of life or injury, property
damage, social and economic disruption or
environmental degradation.
Each hazard is characterised by its
location, intensity, frequency and
probability.
Living with Risk, ISDR, 2004

Vulnerability & Capacity

Vulnerability : The conditions determined by physical, social,
economic, and environmental factors or processes, which
increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of
hazards.
Capacity : A combination of all the strengths and resources
available within a community, society or organization that can
reduce the level of risk, or the effects of a disaster.
Capacity may include physical, institutional, social or
economic means as well as skilled personal or collective
attributes such as leadership and management.

Living with Risk, ISDR, 2004

Ancaman Bencana & Rawan Bencana

13. Ancaman bencana adalah suatu kejadian atau
peristiwa yang bisa menimbulkan bencana.
14. Rawan bencana adalah kondisi atau
karakteristik geologis, biologis, hidrologis,
klimatologis, geografis, sosial, budaya, politik,
ekonomi, dan teknologi pada suatu wilayah untuk
jangka waktu tertentu yang mengurangi
kemampuan mencegah, meredam, mencapai
kesiapan, dan mengurangi kemampuan untuk
menanggapi dampak buruk bahayatertentu.
UU 24/2007 TENTANG PB Pasal 1

Risk
The probability of harmful consequences, or
expected losses (deaths, injuries, property,
livelihoods, economic activity disrupted or
environment damaged) resulting from interactions
between natural or human-induced hazards and
vulnerable conditions.
Conventionally risk is expressed by the notation
Risk = Hazards x Vulnerability.
or Risk = Hazards x Vulnerability / Capacity
Living with Risk, ISDR, 2004

Risiko Bencana
17. Risiko bencana adalah potensi kerugian
yang ditimbulkan akibat bencana pada
suatu wilayah dan kurun waktu tertentu
yang dapat berupa kematian, luka, sakit,
jiwa terancam, hilangnya rasa aman,
mengungsi, kerusakan atau kehilangan
harta, dan gangguan kegiatan masyarakat.
UU 24/2007 TENTANG PB Pasal 1

NATIONAL EMERGENCY RISK ASSESSMENT (NERA) GUIDELINES SPECIFICATION , AUSTRALIA

Nilai Resiko
Resiko elemen (E): elemen yang beresiko bencana :
Penduduk,
Bangunan,
Infrastruktur,
Fasilitas penunjang vital kehidupan)

Resiko Total (Rt) akibat bencana :

Jumlah korban jiwa, jumlah korban cedera
Kerusakan bangunan,
Kerusakan Infrastruktur,
Kerusakan Fasilitas penunjang vital kehidupan)
Gangguan aktifitas ekonomi

R(t) = E . Rs = (E) . (H) . (V)

NATIONAL EMERGENCY RISK ASSESSMENT (NERA) GUIDELINES SPECIFICATION , AUSTRALIA

Disaster Risk Analysis/Assessement

as part of
disaster risk management process

Risk assessment/analysis
A methodology to determine the
nature and extent of risk by analysing
potential hazards and evaluating
existing conditions of vulnerability that
could pose a potential threat or harm
to people, property, livelihoods and the
environment on which they depend.
Living with Risk, ISDR, 2004

Living with Risk, ISDR, 2004

DRM Approach
Based on
disaster risk
management
framework

Living with Risk, ISDR, 2004

Risk Analysis/Assesment Process

Process
Risk analysis is a basic instrument of disaster risk management which is used
to study the factors of disaster risk and provides the basis for planning and
implementing measures to reduce risks and impacts of disasters.

Hazard
HazardAnalysis
Analysis
Vulnerability
VulnerabilityAnalysis
Analysis
Interpretation

Risk
RiskAnalysis
Analysis

Living with Risk, ISDR, 2004

Hazard Analysis

A hazard analysis investigates, identifies and documents

natural hazards (drought, floods, landslides, earthquakes,
etc.), their causes and impact chains.

Hazard analysis describes and assesses the probability of

occurrence of an extreme natural event at a specific place,
at a specific time, and with a specific intensity and duration
for vulnerable population.

Before this detailed study it is necessary to establish how

far population groups and their livelihood are potentially
affected.

If there are no vulnerable populations or elements at the

site of hazard, no hazard analysis is required.

Hazard Analysis
Hazard analysis is not a linear sequence of analytical steps relating to the hazard. It is
constantly being interrupted by steps in vulnerability assessment.

Extreme natural
event as hazard
gives rise to potentially
damaging impact on
Vulnerable people
and their
livelihoods

Hazard analysis investigates the extreme natural

event, its characteristics, its force, its potential for
destruction and its likelihood of occurrence.

The information from these two analytical

steps is used to derive and evaluate the
probable damage

Vulnerability Assessment investigates the

vulnerability of people and their livelihoods to the
extreme natural event identified as a hazard.

The most important tasks and steps in Hazard Analysis

1. Identify the types of hazards. 1
2. Identification and characterisation of hazard prone locations.
3. Identification and determination of the probabilities of
occurrence on an ordinal scale (high - medium low).
4. Estimate or calculate the scale (strength, magnitude) of the
hazard.
5. Identify the factors influencing the hazards (climate change,
environmental destruction and resource degradation, major
infrastructural facilities such as dams).

Vulnerability Analysis

Vulnerability analysis studies the ability of a system (or element) to

withstand, avoid, neutralise or absorb the impacts of hazardous natural
events.

Without extreme natural events as a hazard, there are no vulnerable

elements, and hence no hazard.

Vulnerabilities are created, they are the product of social development

or faulty development.

Vulnerability is assessed by the potential loss resulting from a natural

event.

Damage can be to:

Population (life, health and wellbeing)

Material assets (buildings, infrastructure)
Natural assets (woods, forests, agricultural land)

The most important tasks and steps in

Vulnerability Analysis

1.

Identification of potentially vulnerable elements.

2.

Collecting basic data on:

3.

Population: age, density, gender, ethnic structure, socioeconomic status.

Location: buildings, important facilities (schools, hospitals, emergency centres),
environment, economy, structure, history.
Self-protection capability: capacities for disaster preparedness, emergency response,
training, prevention programmes, early warning systems.

Analysis of factors influencing or resulting in vulnerability: Physical, social, economic

and environmental vulnerability factors. 1

4.

Development of indicators for identifying vulnerabilities and estimating the degree

of vulnerability.

5.

Analysis of self-protection capabilities.

6.

Identification of indicators to show or measure capacity for preparedness.

7.

Estimate of accepted risk and residual risk.

Elements at risk
Building Stock
Critical Facilities
Transportation Systems
Lifeline Utility Systems
Communications Systems and Networks
High Potential Loss Facilities
Hazardous Material Facilities
Economic Elements.
Special Consideration Areas
Historic, Cultural, and Natural Resource Areas
Etc.

Goals and Products of Risk Analysis

Goals and Products of Risk Analysis

Risk analysis is not a static one-time process, but a dynamic process which is
constantly adjusting to changing vulnerabilities, hazards and risks.
Awareness Raising

Analysis
Analysisof
of
vulnerability
vulnerabilityand
and
capabilities
capabilities
Information
Informationfrom
from
emergency
emergencyaid
aidand
and
reconstruction
reconstruction
Hazard analysis
and monitoring

Use of concrete measure:

Risk
RiskAnalysis
Analysis

Early Warning

Prevention, preparation
Early warning systems
Environmental management
Land use planning
Spatial planning
Cooperation, alliances
Financing instruments
Poverty reduction

Capacity building:

Policy development
Legislation, norms
Community development

Goals of Risk Analysis

Identify participative possible hazards and vulnerabilities of population groups to
natural events.
Estimate and assess the probability of occurrence and the possible potential
damage
Identify and study possible weaknesses and gaps in existing protective and
adaptive strategies.
Formulate realistic recommendations for measures to overcome weaknesses and
reduce the identified and assessed disaster risks.
Ensure and enhance the feasibility, effect and efficiency of protective measures.
Contribute to the recommendations of the World Conference on Natural Disaster
Reduction (Yokohama, 1994), the Hyogo Framework (2005) and Agenda 21.
Contribute to spatial and land use planning.
Contribute to planning for emergency aid measures.
Improve coordination and linkages
Integrate disaster risk management (DRM) to the various areas of development.

How do we define acceptable level of risk

Exposure

Vulnerability

Risk

RE
SU
PO
EX

VU
LN
ER
AB
IL
IT
Y

Hazard

Acceptable RISK
HAZARD
Geoscience

Strategy on accepatable level of risk

Protection target for
structural design
(external force level 2)

Occurrence
probability
Preventing
damage

Protection target for non-physical

disaster protection measures
(external force level 3)

Reducing damage

Limit of disaster protection

The higher the asset concentration,

the nearer to the maximum
permissible risk

Acceptable risk

Maximum permissible risk

Structural based
Measures
(Physical disaster
protection measure)

Massive disaster

Information-based
measures
(Non-physical disaster
protection measure
Scale of
external
force
No damage

SATGAS ACEH-ITB

Serious damage

IWS

Extremely severe damage

(WCDR, 2005)

Elements in Implementation
DISASTER
DISASTERRISK
RISKMANAGEMENT
MANAGEMENT(DRM)
(DRM)
Risk
RiskAnalysis
Analysis
Hazard Analysis
Geographical
analysis:
Location
Extent

Temporal analysis:
Frequency
Duration
Probability of
occurrence

Dimensional
analysis
Scale
Intensity

DRM
DRMMeasures
Measures
Vulnerability analysis

Identification of
elements and people at
risk.
Identification of
vulnerability factors
and causes:
Physical
Social
Economic
Environmental

Assessment of
possible damage/loss.

Analysis of selfprotection
capabilities.
Development of
strategies and
measures at
different levels:
Family
Village
Community

Disaster
mitigation

Preparedness
for disaster

Planning
measures.

Emergency
plans.

Physical
preventative
measures.

Early warning
systems.

Capacity
building,
creating
institutional
measures

Evacuation
plans.

Issues to be considered in implementing RA

Criteria for Determining Methods and

Instruments
The following questions should be explored before carrying out a RA:
Is there political commitment to DRM?
Are preventive measure politically acknowledged?
Is there financing for implementing measures derived from RA?
Does a cost-benefit assessment indicate a positive social benefit?
Or is RA more expensive than possible damage?
Is the starting point an emergency aid measure?
Is there an institutional and statutory basis for DRM and RA?
Are there developing and/or poverty reduction strategies?
Is the affected population motivated and interested in self-help?

Critical Issues
Political Commitment:

Defined institutional responsibilities for disaster management.

Political framework that permits democratic consultation and cooperation.

Results of RA:

Resources capable of mobilisation, implementation and application.

Results taken into account in spatial and land use planning.

Cultural Acceptability:

Promotion of self-organisation by affected population.

Promotion of traditional of local and traditional knowledge.

Ownership and Personal Initiative:

Emergency and food aid shipments undermining local resources.

Critical Issues
Interests and Perceptions:

Transparent information.
Disclosure and discussion.
Clarification of interests and roles.

Levels and Contexts:

Aim to reduce disaster risk at: local, national or regional level?

Product intended for: community (implementation), technical agency (research

and analysis), financial institutions (cost-benefit analysis, profitability) or insurance
company (tariffs)?

Inputs for Data Collection:

Over emphasis on data input or data which cannot be used later.

Little time and resources for evaluation and formulation of planning statements.
Less emphasis on agreement with actors on subsequent implementation.

Tingkatan Risk Assessment ?

National level ?
Provincial level ?
District level (Kabupaten/Kota) ?
Community level :
Kecamatan ?
Kelurahan/desa ?
Neighborhood (Dusun, RW, RT) ?

beberapa wilayah administratif bertetangga ? (Contoh

di USA DMA Act 2000, multi-jurisdictional DMP)
Tingkatan RA yang berbeda akan menggunakan teknik
analisis yang berbeda !

Modality of implementation
Government conducted or
participatory/community process?
Outsourced (expert consultant)
inhouse resources ?
Detailed analysis or dirty method
approach?
Risk analysis tools?

Techniques Used in
Disaster Risk Assessment
(Disaster Assessment Portal - UN HABITAT

(Non-exhaustive) List of Disaster Risk

Assessment Techniques
Access model
A model that explores how an individual or groups relative resilience to
disasters is impacted by differences in access to the economic or
political resources needed to secure a livelihood.
Computer assisted techniques
The use of computer software programs to automate steps of the risk
management process. For example the use of GIS and remote sensing
has allowed hazard mapping to become more comprehensive.
Cost-benefit analysis
A process used to select countermeasures, by balancing the costs of
implementing each option against the benefits derived from it. In general,
the cost of managing risks needs to be equal to the benefits gained from
putting the countermeasures in place.
Disaster risk indexing
A quantitative analysis technique that uses statistical indicators to
measure and compare risk variables.

(Non-exhaustive) List of Disaster Risk

Assessment Techniques
Environmental impact assessment (EIA)
A policymaking tool that provides information on the environmental
impacts of activities.

Event-tree analysis (ETA)

A consequence based analysis in which an event either has or has not
happened or a component has or has not failed. An event tree begins
with an initiating event. The consequences of the event are followed
through a series of possible paths. Each path is assigned a probability
of occurrence and the probability of the various possible outcomes
can be calculated.

Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA)

An analytical technique, which explores the effects of failures or
malfunctions of individual components in a system - i.e. "If this part
fails, in this manner, what will be the result?" The level of risk is
determined by: Risk = probability of failure x severity category

(Non-exhaustive) List of Disaster Risk

Assessment Techniques
Fault-tree analysis (FTA)
This is a graphical technique that provides a description of the
combinations of possible occurrences in a system, which can result in an
undesirable outcome. The most serious outcome is selected and called the
Top Event. The analysis proceeds by determining how these top events can
be caused by individual or combined lower level failures or events.
Geographic information system (GIS) mapping

The use of a geographic information system, a computer-based tool, for risk

or hazard mapping. GIS technology integrates database operations with the
geographic analysis benefits offered by maps.
Geospatial analysis

Analysis of risk information by distance, area, volume or any other spatial

characteristic within geographic boundaries through GIS and hazard
mapping techniques.
Hazard mapping

The process of mapping hazard information within a study area of varying

scale, coverage, and detail.

(Non-exhaustive) List of Disaster Risk

Assessment Techniques

Historical analysis

The analysis of historical information to determine levels of risk based on

past experiences.
Impact analysis

The practice of identifying and evaluating the negative and positive

consequences of disasters on natural and human systems (i.e., environment,
economic, financial, and social). Includes methodologies and standards for
damage and needs assessments.
Inductive analysis

The analysis of risk by integrating layers of information (e.g., visualizing

disaster information in relation to other socio-economic parameters by
geographical features such as administrative units, ecological zones, towns
and streets) in GIS techniques.
Participatory analysis

A risk analysis which includes the affected people in defining problems and
needs, deciding solutions to them, implementing agreed activities to achieve
those solutions and/or evaluating the results.

(Non-exhaustive) List of Disaster Risk

Assessment Techniques

Pressure and release model

The starting point of the pressure and release model is that a disaster is
the intersection of two opposing forces: the process generating
vulnerability on one side, and the physical exposure to hazard on the
other. Increasing pressure can come from either side but vulnerability
has to be reduced to relieve the pressure. Vulnerability is considered in
three levels: root causes, dynamic pressures and unsafe conditions.
Qualitative analysis

Analysis that uses words rather than numbers to describe and measure
the magnitude of potential consequences and the likelihood that those
consequences will occur. These scales can be adapted or adjusted to
suit the circumstances, and different descriptions may be used for
different risks.
Quantitative analysis

Analysis that uses numerical values (rather than the descriptive scales
used in qualitative and semi-quantitative analysis) for both consequences
and likelihood. The quality of the analysis depends on the accuracy and
completeness of the numerical values and the validity of the models used.

(Non-exhaustive) List of Disaster Risk

Assessment Techniques
Remote sensing

Remote sensing refers to the process of recording information

from sensors mounted either on aircraft or on satellites. The
technique is applicable to natural hazards management because
nearly all geologic, hydrologic, and atmospheric phenomena are
recurring events or processes that leave evidence of their
previous occurrence.
Risk mapping

A risk map is a map of a community or geographical zone that

identifies the places and the structures that might be adversely
affected in the event of a hazard.
Semi-quantitative analysis

In semi-quantitative analysis, qualitative scales are given values.

The objective is to produce a more expanded ranking scale than
is usually achieved in qualitative analysis, not to suggest realistic
values for risk such as is attempted in quantitative analysis.

(Non-exhaustive) List of Disaster Risk

Assessment Techniques
Social survey

A survey to provide information to establish the context in

which the risk assessment will take place and the criteria
against which risk will be evaluated. Decisions concerning
whether risk treatment is required may also be based on
operational, technical, financial, legal, environmental,
humanitarian or other criteria for which additional surveys
will be required.
SWOT analysis

A tool used in the assessment of organizations to capture

and identify the organizations geographic and
programmatic scope of action, perceived effectiveness and
level of acceptance and support by community members
and local institutions. The analysis is broken down into
Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats.

(Non-exhaustive) List of Disaster Risk

Assessment Techniques
Temporal analysis
The basis of a temporal analytical technique is the
assumption that observed patterns arise from an
underlying process. Modeling this underlying process
allows for the estimation of impacts which best transform
a map at time t into that at time t + 1.
Vulnerabilities analysis matrix
A practical and diagnostic tool in the form of a simple
matrix which measures vulnerabilities and capacities in
three broad and interrelated areas (i.e., physical/material,
social/organizational, and motivational/attitudinal). Other
factors are added to the matrix to reflect a complex reality
such as disaggregation by gender or economic factors,
changes over time, different scales etc.)

(Non-exhaustive) List of Disaster Risk

Assessment Techniques
Scenario analysis :
Deterministic approach
Probabilistic approach

Contoh Scenario Analysis : RADIUS Tool

Teknik/metoda RA yang
mana yang akan kita
adopsi untuk pedoman
kita?

Contoh-Contoh Risk Assessment

Method

Pedoman DMP dari FEMA

CONTENT :

Risk Assessment Process- LMHMPG

Hazard Mitigation Plan Made Easy,

Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency

Hazard Mitigation Plan Made Easy,

Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency

Hazard-Vulnerability Analysis
menggunakan Risk MAtrix

Contoh Scenario based Risk Analysis

untuk Climate Change
dengan analysis semi-quantitative

Scenario: Inundation to 0.5 metres above MSL

Location: Nikau Bay
Scenario: Inundation to 0.5 m above MSL (i.e.
to just above most house floor levels) for 100
m inland (i.e. the first two rows of houses
behind the beach), but no major erosion.
The Regional Policy Statement has a planning
horizon of 100 years (therefore, likelihood is
evaluated in time steps up to 100 years).

Likelihood:
Likely > 100 years
Possible 75-100 years
Unlikely 25-75 years
Rare 0-25 years

Impact/consequence:
Human:
No loss of life, possible injury
Possibly elderly people trapped in their homes
Economic:
Negative impact upon regional reputation and tourism industry
Social:
Temporary loss of access through the main access road
Infrastructural:
Water supply possible contamination, wastewater possible leakage
(public health risk)
Damage and disruption to road (temporary disruption to access in
and out)
Geographic:
Possible wastewater contamination of streams in the bay

Level of impact for locality/hazard scenario

Designation
1

Impact
Catastrophic

Examples

Huge financial losses involving many people and/or corporations and/or local
government
Large long-term loss of services
Permanent loss of many people's homes; large-scale loss of employment
Loss of life or serious injury

Major

Major financial losses for many individuals and/or a few corporations

Some long-term impacts on services
Some homes permanently lost
Complete loss of an important natural environment
Serious injury

Moderate

High financial losses, probably for multiple owners

Disruption of services for several days; people displaced from their homes for
several weeks; major impacts on valued natural environment

Minor

Moderate financial losses for small number of owners; disruption of services for
a day or two; moderate distress to some individuals; some impacts on significant
natural environment

Insignificant

Minimal financial losses; short-term inconvenience

Likelihood of scenario occurring

within the selected planning horizon
Designation Frequency

Description

IPCC definition
Virtually certain (> 99% chance that
a result is true)

Almost
certain

Is expected to happen,
perhaps more than once

Very likely (90-99%)

Likely

Will probably happen

Likely (66-90%)

Possible

Might occur; 50/50 chance

Medium (33-66%)

Unlikely

Unlikely to occur, but

possible

Unlikely (10-33%)

Rare

Highly unlikely, but

conceivable

Very unlikely (1-10%)

Exceptionally unlikely (<1%)

Risk table
Year

Consequence

Likelihood

1 Catastrophic 2 Major 3 Moderate 4 Minor 5 Insignificant

A (almost certain) E

B (likely)

C (possible)

D (unlikely)

E (rare)

None

Legend:
E: Extreme risk; immediate action required
H: High risk; high priority for action, begin
planning as soon as practicable
M: Moderate risk; include in response
planning, but lower priority.
L: Low risk; minimal action likely to be
required; monitor the situation
None: Negligible risk; no response required

Contoh RADIUS Scenario Analysis

RADIUS CASE STUDY

(Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnostic of Urban Areas Against Seismic Disaster)

Amankah Kota Bandung

terhadap Bahaya Gempabumi?

Bagian dari International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) tahun
1991-2000 yang disponsori UN
Dilaksanakan oleh Pemerintah Kota Bandung bekerja sama dengan Lembaga
Penelitian ITB
Tujuan Studi RADIUS : menghasilkan suatu gambaran skenario kejadian gempa
dan tingkat risiko yang dapat timbul akibat gempa dan menyusun suatu rencana
penanggulangan bencana serta rencana tindak lanjut (action plans) untuk DRR
gempabumi di Kota Bandung

PETA-PETA HAZARDS
HASIL STUDI RADIUS

240
220
200

PGA (gal)

180
160
140
120
100
80
60

Crouse
Joyner & Boore
Total

40
20
0
0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Return period (year)

Seismic Hazard Curve (Sengara et. al, 2000)

Peta mikrozonasi seismik yang menunjukkan
distribusi PGA

Peta Potensi Liquifaksi

Peta Potensi Longsor

PETA-PETA KERUSAKAN HASIL STUDI RADIUS

Peta Kerusakan Bangunan

Peta Kerusakan Jaringan Listrik

Peta Kerusakan Jalan

Peta Kerusakan Jaringan Pipa

Primer PDAM

Peta Kerusakan Jaringan

Telekomunikasi

SKENARIO GEMPA KOTABANDUNG

Jika gempa 200 tahunan terjadi di kota Bandung, apa yang terjadi?
Berdasarkan skenario gempa terjadi siang hari,
(hasil studi PMB-ITB Pemkot Bandung dalam IUDMP-RADIUS tahun 1999):
Diperkirakan akan terjadi 5 type kerusakan bangunan:
Aman
Kerusakan ringan
Kerusakan berat
Setengah runtuh
Runtuh
Cibeunying Kaler diperkirakan mengalami 9020 rumah tinggal mengalami kerusakan ringan, 4820
kerusakan berat. Bojongloa Kaler menderita paling parah dengan 8350an rumah tinggal setengah
runtuh dan 8030an lainnya runtuh total.
Korban jiwa diperkirakan mencapai 2640 dan 21170 mengalami luka berat dari total 2.4juta jiwa
penduduk.
Kerusakan dan kerugian infrastruktur dan terhenti/terganggunya kegiatan ekonomi

Contoh Risk Assessment Jawa Barat

Proses Kajian Risiko

Risk (R) = H (Hazard) x V (Vulnerability)

Komponen Hazard/ Bahaya (H)
Geografis
Skala/ Intensitas
Probabilitas/ Kemungkinan kejadian
Komponen Vulnerability/ kerentanan (V)
Jumlah Penduduk
Kepadata Penduduk
Prosentase daerah terbangun (developed area)
Kemampuan untuk merespon

No.

Faktor Risiko

Tingkat
Kecepatan

Jenis Faktor Risiko

Gempa bumi

Quick Onset

Geofisik

Gerakan tanah/longsor

Slow & Quick Onset

Geofisik

Banjir

Quick Onset

Hidrometeorologi

Kekeringan

Slow Onset

Hidrometeorologi

Kebakaran Kota

Quick Onset

Teknologi

Kebakaran Lahan

Quick Onset

Hidrometeorologi

Letusan Gunung api

Quick Onset

Geofisik

Angin Kencang

Quick Onset

Hidrometeorologi

Wabah penyakit

Quick Onset

Biologi

10

Pencemaran

Slow Onset

Lingkungan

11

Kegagalan Teknologi

Quick Onset

Teknologi

12

Konflik/Kerusuhan

Quick Onset

Sosial

13

Tsunami

Quick Onset

Geofisik

14

Air pasang/Rob

Quick Onset

Hidrometeorologi

15

Bahaya Petir

Quick Onset

Hidrometeorologi

16

Debris Flow/Banjir bandang

Slow Onset

Hidrometeorologi

17

Abrasi/Erosi

Slow Onset

Hidrometeorologi

18

Kecelekaan Transportasi

Quick Onset

Teknologi

19

Gizi buruk

Slow Onset

Sosial

20

Gangguan Hama

Slow Onset

Biologi

Komponen Hazard/Bahaya
Geografi

Skala /Intensitas

Prosentase perbandingan
antara luas daerah yang
terancam dengan luas
propinsi

Besaran rata-rata propinsi

intensitas bahaya

0-20 %
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%

Sangat rendah
Rendah
Sedang
Tinggi
Sangat timggi

1
2
3
4
5

Probabilitas / Kemungkinan
kejadian
Jumlah kejadian yang merusak dalam
kurun waktu tertentu

1
2
3
4
5

(VHF) Sangat sering, kejadian

yg terjadi >1 dlm 5 thn.
(HF) Sering, kejadian yg terjadi
>1 dlm 10 thn.
(MF) Sedang, kejadian yg terjadi
1x dlm 10 thn-1x dlm 100 thn.
(LF) Jarang, kejadian yg terjadi
1x dlm 100 thn-1x dlm 1000 thn.
(VLF) Sangat jarang, kejadian
yg terjadi <1 dlm 1000 thn.

4
3
2

Komponen Kerentanan/ Vulnerability

Jumlah
penduduk

Kepadatan
Penduduk

Prosentase
perbandingan
antara jumlah
penduduk yang
terancam
dengan jumlah
penduduk
propinsi

Jumlah kepadatan
penduduk yang terancam
dibandingkan dengan
jumlah kepadatan
penduduk propinsi

Prosentase daerah
terbangun yang
terancam dibandingkan
dengan luas daerah
terbangun propinsi

Kemampuan merespon instansi

propinsi atas ancaman yang ada

0-20 %
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%

<0.536 jw/ha
0.536-1.22 jw/ha
1.22-2.44 jw/ha
2.44-4.44 jw.ha
>4.44 jw/ha

0-20 % = 1
20-40% = 2
40-60% = 3
60-80% = 4
80-100%= 5

Sangat baik = 1
Baik
= 2
Sedang
= 3
Buruk
=4
Sangat buruk = 5

1
2
3
4
5

% Daerah terbangun Kemampuan untuk merespon

(Kawasan industri
dan pemukiman)

1
2
3
4
5

Matriks Risiko

Faktor Risiko Yang Ditinjau

No.

Faktor Risiko

No.

Faktor Risiko

1.

Gempa bumi

12.

Konflik/Kerusuhan

2.

Gerakan tanah/Longsor

13.

Tsunami

3.

Banjir

14.

Air Pasang/Rob

4.

Kekeringan

15.

Bahaya Petir

5.

Kebakaran Kota

16.

Debris Flow/Banjir Bandang

6.

Kebakaran Lahan

17.

Abrasi/Erosi

7.

Letusan Gunung Api

18.

Kecelakaan Transportasi

8.

Angin Kencang

19.

Gizi buruk

9.

Wabah Penyakit

20.

Gangguan hama

10.

Pencemaran

21.

Terorisme

11.

Kegagalan Teknologi

22.

Sabotase

Matriks Risiko
5
Kebakaran lahan

Banjir
Kekeringan
Pencemaran
Air pasang/Rob
Abrasi/Erosi

Bahaya petir
Kecelakaan
Transportasi
Gizi Buruk
Gangguan hama

Kebakaran kota
Angin Kencang
Konflik / Kerusuhan
Debris Flow / Banjir
Bandang

Tsunami

Terorisme
Sabotase

Bahaya (Hazard)

Letusan Gunung Api

Gempa bumi
Gerakan tanah /
longsor
Wabah penyakit

Kegagalan
teknologi

1
1

2
3
Kerentanan (Vulnerability)

Kategori Risiko
Faktor Risiko

Nilai
Risiko

Tingkat Risiko

Tindakan

20-25

Kelas A : Sangat tinggi

Mitigasi menyeluruh dan

kontingensi planning
mendesak disusun dan
dilaksanakan.

Gempa bumi, Gerakan tanah / longsor, Wabah

penyakit

15-20

Kelas B:Tinggi-Sangat
tinggi

Mitigasi menyeluruh dan

kontingensi planning harus
segera disusun dan
dilaksanakan.

Banjir, Kekeringan, Pencemaran, Air pasang /

Rob, Abrasi / Erosi

10-15

Kelas C: Sedang Tinggi

Kondisi risiko yang cukup

tinggi dipertimbangkan
untuk perencanaan dan
mitigasi lebih lanjut.

Kebakaran Lahan, Bahaya Petir, Kecelakaan

Transportasi, Gizi Buruk, Gangguan hama,
Kebakaran Kota, Angin Kencang, Konflik /
Kerusuhan, Debris Flow / Banjir Bandang,
Terorisme, Sabotase

5-10

Kelas D: Sedang Rendah

Kondisi risiko rendah

dengan tambahan mitigasi
dan kontigensi planning
sebagai saran.

Letusan Gunung Api, Tsunami, Kegagalan

Teknologi

1-5

Kelas E: Rendah
Sangat rendah

Kondisi risiko yang sangat

rendah namun rencana

Hasil Kajian Risiko Tingkat Provinsi Jawa

Barat

Hasil Kajian Risiko Wilayah Cekungan Bandung

Gempa bumi
Gerakan tanah
Wabah Penyakit
Banjir
Kekeringan
Pencemaran
Air pasang/rob
Abrasi/erosi

Usulan Metoda Penyusunan

PEDOMAN KAJIAN RISIKO
BENCANA (ALAM?)

Keputusan-keputusan yang harus

diambil sebelumnya
Siapa target pengguna pedoman :
Propinsi, kabupaten/kota, komunitas
Staf instansi pemerintah, konsultan, expert
(academic)

Seberapa dalam kajian risiko/analisis risiko

yang dikehendaki
Apa unit analisis yang digunakan :
Batas geografis
Batas administrasi pemerintahan :

Propinsi?
Kabupaten
Kecamatan
Desa

PROSES PENYUSUNAN PEDOMAN KAJIAN RISIKO BENCANA

No

Kegiatan

Bulan 1
Minggu

Bulan 2
4

Bulan 3
8

1
0

1
1

Bulan 4
1
2

Persiapan

x x

Pemahaman Bentuk Pedoman dan Kedalaman

Analisis Risiko Yang Dibutuhkan

x x x x

Pemilihan Model Risiko yang Sesuai

Pemilihan Jenis Risiko yang ditinjau

Pemilihan Indikator H, V, C

x x

Cara Penentuan Besaran-besaran Indikator

x x x x

Metoda Pembobotan dan Skoring Indikator,

Perhitungan Nilai Risiko, Metoda Evaluasi
Resiko, Risk Level Category

x x x x

Metoda Penyajian dan Pemetaan Risiko

Struktur Pedoman Kajian Risiko Bencana dan

Templates

10

Pelaporan

1
3

1
4

1
5

1
6

x x
x x

x x
x x x

Terima kasih