Uncertainty Management in Rule Based ES

Muhammad Ridwan Andi Purnomo, ST, MSc, PhD

Department of Industrial Engineering
Faculty of Industrial Technology
Universitas Islam Indonesia
2013

What is uncertainty ?
One of the common characteristics of information is
its imperfection.
Information can be incomplete, inconsistent,
uncertain, or all three.
Information is often unsuitable for solving a problem.
An expert can cope with these defects and can
usually make correct judgements and right decisions.
Expert systems also have to be able to handle
uncertainty and draw valid conclusions.

Uncertainty in ES
Uncertainty can be defined as the lack of the exact
knowledge.
It disables us to reach a perfectly reliable conclusion.
Example:
IF A is true
THEN B is true B is not always true when A is true.
IF today is rain
THEN tomorrow is rain tomorrow can be dry even
though today is rain.

Sources of uncertain knowledge

Weak implications put degree of correlations as
numerical certainty factors.
Imprecise language
natural language is inherently ambiguous and imprecise
sometime, terms like often and sometimes, frequently and
hardly ever are preferably than IF THEN term.
Unknown data
if the info is missing, then the only solution is to accept
unknown and proceed to approximation reasoning.
Combining the views of different experts
Occurred when there are different opinions.

Quantification of ambiguous and imprecise term

Cont

How can we define probability?

The probability of an event is the proportion of
cases in which the event occurs (Good, 1959).
Probability can also be defined as a scientific
measure of chance.
Probability can be expressed mathematically as a
numerical index with a range between zero (an
absolute impossibility) to unity (an absolute
certainty).

How can we define probability?

Example: dice throwing event

Probability to get side 6 is: (this is mutually exclusive
case)

Probability formula
Probability that A occurred if B occurred is: (this is not
mutually exclusive)

Probability that both A and B are occurred, is called joint

probability.

Bayesian formula

Bayesian formula
In rule based ES, there are several rules, hence:

Bayesian formula
If the occurrence of event A depends on only two mutually
exclusive events, B and NOT B, then:

Bayesian reasoning
IF E is true
THEN H is true {with probability p} event E occurs, then
the probability that event H will occur is p.

Example: Weather forecast

The expert system should give us two possible
outcomes tomorrow is rain and tomorrow is dry
and provide their likelihood the expert system
must determine the conditional probabilities of the
two hypotheses tomorrow is rain and tomorrow is dry.
The Rules:
Rule: 1
IF today is rain THEN tomorrow is rain
Rule: 2
IF today is dry THEN tomorrow is dry

Example: Weather forecast

Rewrite the rules based on the probability:
Rule: 1
IF today is rain {LS 2.5 LN .6} THEN tomorrow is rain
{prior .5}
Rule: 2
IF today is dry {LS 1.6 LN .4} THEN tomorrow is dry
{prior .5}

Example: Weather forecast

Example: Weather forecast

Example: Weather forecast

Example: Weather forecast

Rules 1 produces:

Rules 2 produces:

Example: Weather forecast

Conclusion:
If it is raining today there is a 71 per cent
chance of it raining and a 29 per cent chance
of it being dry tomorrow.
Check !
How is user input today is dry ? Compute
probability tomorrow is dry and rain
probability.

Complete example of weather forecast

Complete example of weather forecast

Complete example of weather forecast

Complete example of weather forecast

Complete example of weather forecast

Complete example of weather forecast

Complete example of weather forecast

Complete example of weather forecast

Complete example of weather forecast

Thank You !