A CRITICAL REVIEW OF A STEVENS AND

SINCLAIRS EQUATION

Emeka D. Okaekwu
School of Electrical and
Information Engineering
University of the
Witwatersrand,
Johannesburg
emeka.okaekwu@yahoo.com

Nicholas Ade
School of Physics
University of the Witwatersrand,
Johannesburg
leronicholson@yahoo.ca

24 September 2009

Outline

Abstract

Introduction

Aim / Objective

Methodology

Results

Discussion

Conclusion

Abstract

A finite-source queuing model is very useful in determining

performance equations, the probability of delay of users
who queue for a free server when all servers are busy. The
aim of this paper is to critically examine and analyze
Stevens and Sinclairs equation to show that it is a
performance equation for the probability of delay in private
mobile radio (PMR) systems. We analyze such an equation
mathematically and present a computational program
using MATLAB. The system is an M/M/r/K/K queuing model
with finite sources of traffic. Some of the basic traffic
characteristics and assumptions are also reviewed.

Introduction

Modern telecommunication systems experience

heavy sources of traffic especially at the busy hour. In
queuing systems, subscribers are queued until they
are served. If they are made to wait for too long, they
may lose patience and default from the queue,
resulting in no service being offered. Systems
operating on delay basis require an equation for the
probability of delay in an M/M/r/K/K model. Such an
equation is available for a system with an infinite
population, but no such equation has been used for a
system with finite sources of traffic. Boucher [2]
pointed out that such a delay probability was missing

Introduction (cont.)

Three basic teletraffic formulae have been in use

in telecommunications systems: the Erlang-B ,
Erlang-C
and Engset formulae. The Erlangs
formulae are used in systems (blocking systems)
with infinite sources of traffic while the Engset
formula is used for systems (delaying systems)
with a finite population. No delay probability
equation for a system with a finite population has
been used. This brings us to the concept of
Bouchers decision tree [2] where the delay
formula for finite number of sources is missing.

Table 1. THE THREE BASIC TRAFFIC

FORMULAE AND BOUCHERS MISSING
FORMULA

Blocking systems

Queuing Systems

Calls lost

Calls delayed

Infinite population

Erlang-B

Finite Population

Engset

Erlang-C

??

Aim / Objective

The aim of this paper is to critically

examine and analyze Stevens and
Sinclairs equation to show that it is a
performance equation for the probability
of delay in private mobile radio (PMR)
systems.

Methodology
A mathematical approach is used to analyze
Stevens and Sinclairs performance equation.
The performance equation is denoted Eq. (SS)
and we shall refer to Eq. (12) in Stevens and
Sinclairs paper [1]. The mathematical analysis
is then compared with Erlang-C system and
deductions made with respect to the
definiteness of the Eq. (SS) in catering for the
queuing probability for finite number of
sources. The entire analysis was then tested
with a MATLAB computer program.

Erlang-C Formula

Erlang-C Formula:
[(AN / N!) * (N/N-A)]
Pc = ----------------------------------------- (1)
N 1

/ i! + [(A / N!) * (N/N-A)]

i 0

Where, Pc denotes the blocking probability for N

busy servers, A is the traffic load, i is a counter
for the summation.

Equation (SS)

Eq. (SS):
Pd = /Ns P ( K n) ------------------ (2)
K

n r

Where,
Ns = nP + rP -------------------- (2.1)
Pn = Dn/D -------- (2.2)
r 1

n 1

nr

Dn = [K! / (K-n)!] n/n!, 1 < n r ------- (2.3)

Dn = [K!/(K-n)!] n/r!rn-r , r < n K ---- (2.4)

Definition of Parameters in Eq.

(SS)

= /, the busy to idle ratio of each source,

which is the offer load in Erlangs.
Pd = probability of delay
Ns = mean number being served (the carried
traffic)
r = Number of servers in full-availability
K = Number of sources
h = Average holding time
= acceptable delay (service rate)
= call arrival rate (call origination)
n = counter for the summation

Analysis

Eq. (SS) and Erlang-C were computed using

the the following Parameters, = 2, K = 10, r
= 5.

In the analysis, care was taken in choosing

values of offered traffic ( ), number of servers
(r ) and number of sources (K ) to allow for
ease of analysis and to avoid numeric overflow
in computation.

Results

The probability of delay (Pd) computed from Eq.

(SS) was 0.04 (4%) and that obtained from Erlang-C
equation was 0.05 (5%) which is actually greater
than 4% thus implying a certain degree of
satisfactory performance.
The MATLAB program was executed with the same
input parameters = 2, r = 5 and k = 10. For Eq.
(SS), it gives a value of 0.0400 which is the same
as what was obtained in the mathematical analysis
and Erlang-C gives a value of 0.0455 which is also
equivalent to what was obtained earlier.

Discussion

A delay probability formula for finite sources of

traffic is available. Table 1 is now complete as
shown below.
The Four Basic Teletraffic Formulae
Blocking
systems

Queuing
Systems

Calls lost

Calls delayed

Infinite
population

Erlang - B

Erlang - C

Finite
Population

Engset

Equation SS

Conclusion

Stevens and Sinclairs equation is

actually the DELAY FORMULA for
finite sources of traffic missing in
Bouchers decision tree[2] as the
results of the analysis prove that
the
equation
is
useful
in
determining
the
queuing
probability for finite sources.

Thank you

References

[1] Stevens, R.D., Sinclair, M.C. Finite -source analysis of traffic on

privatemobileradio systems, Electronicsletters, 17th July 1997, Vol. 3,
No.15, pp 1292 -1293.

[2] Boucher, J.R., Traffic system design handbook, IEEE Press, 1993, pg 11.

[3]Miller,L.E.,Formulas for BlockingProbability, April 2000, pp 1 12.

[4] Bernhard E.Keriser, and Eugene Stranger: digital telephony and

NetworkIntegration, 2ndedition, Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York, 1995, pp
617 619

[5] Akimaru, K. and Kawashima, K., Teletraffic Theory and Applications, 2 nd

edition, Springer, 1997, pp 3 - 10.