Professional Documents
Culture Documents
International Parity
Relationship (Shapiro, Chapter 4)
(1 i )t
h
et e0
t
(1 i )
f
3
et e
0.6
(1 0.05 )1
(1 0.03 )1
et e
1
(
1
0
.
03
)
1
0.6 (1 0.05 )1
AUD1.6349 / USD
5
Mathematically:
(1 ih )
(1 e)
(1 if )
(1 5%)
(1 3%)
1.0194
8
(1 i f ) (1 iC )
'
e1 e1
or
(1 i )
(1 i )
h
'
e1
e1
1 ih
Where
0 to 1
1 i f is the foreign inflation rate from time
0 to 1
9
Given
Let
(1 i f ) (1 iC )
or
e1 (1 ih )
(1 iT )
'
e1
'
e1
1 e e
Let
(1 i f )
(1 e)(1 ih )
10
Mathematically,
1 + r = (1+r*)(1 + E(i))
12
1 rA
1 rB
(1 r *) [1 E ( i A )]
(1 r *) [1 E ( iB )]
13
1 rA
1 rB
[1 E ( i A )]
[1 E ( iB )]
Given PPP,
E ( S ) 1 E (i A )
S
1 E (iB )
we have,
E ( S ) 1 E (i A ) 1 rA
S
1 E (iB ) 1 r B
15
f
s
E (s)
s
1i A 1 rT
f
s 1iB 1 rC
16
1 rh
1 rT
f
or
s 1 rC
1 r f
17
18
20
IFE
DFE
(1 + rh)
(1 + r*h)(1 + ih)
F = E[S] = S
=
f
(1 + r ) S (1 + r*f) (1 + if)
IRP
(1 + ih)
= S (1 + if)
RPPP
IFEC
IFE
DFE
(1 + if)
(1 +i*f)(1 + pf)
F = E[S] = S (1 + id) = S
(1 +i*d)(1 + pd)
IRP
RPPP
(1 + pf)
= S (1 + pd)
IFEC
From IRP:
(1 rT )
f s
(1 rC )
(1 0.071)
f 1.25 (1 0.1156) 1.2000
The equilibrium forward rate is USD1.2000/GBP.
23
24
(1 0.071)
1.2500 (1 0.1156)
1.2000 1.1950
The calculated f is higher than the quoted f. To
conduct the CIA operation, one would buy
low and sell high in order to make an
arbitrage profit, ie., sell GBP spot and buy
GBP forward.
25
26
Calculation:
Borrow GBP1 at 11.56% for one year and you
payback GBP1(1+0.1156) = GBP1.1156
Convert into USD at 1.2500, invest the sum to
earn 7.1% pa for one year, you get
USD1.2500(1+ 0.071) = USD1.33875;
Sell USD1.33875 1-year forward at 1.1950,
you get GBP1.1203.
Arbitrage profit = 1.1203 1.1156 =
GBP0.0047.
Arbitrage profit is GBP0.0047 per GBP in one
year.
27
rUSD
F
(1 rUSD ) (1 rGBP )
S
1.48
(1.08) 1.0656
1.50
28