IEEE Powereng 2013 Lukas Neusser

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Real-time load forecasting for demand
side management with only a few
days of history available

Luciane Neves Canha, Dr. Eng. - Lukas Neusser, Msc. Eng.
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria - Brazil
4th International Conference on Power Engineering, Energy and Electrical Drives
13-17 May 2013 Istanbul - Turkey

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Why load forecasting in real-time?

Example 1

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Demand side
management
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Why load forecasting in real-time?

Example 2

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Demand side
management
DER: Physical constraints
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Very short-time load forecasting
For demand side management:
Be aware on the load for the next minutes;
Compare the forecast with available power;
Can take action in advance;
More efficient grid operation;
Smart grid means also smart DSM;
Smart DSM only possible with embedded
forecast;

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What if there is no history?
Forecasting any variable presuppose the existence
of historic data;
Most of forecasting techniques needs a good
historic base;
Demand: meteorological past has important role;
New building, new smart meter = no history;
Or: Only 15 minute intervals;

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Double seasonal exponential smoothing
Based on the work from Holt / Winters;
Research by James Taylor: double seasonal;

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Initialization example (5 minute intervals)

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Collect load data,
on fixed time
intervals, during a
week
Calculate the initial
level (l
t
) as average
of all samples
Calculate separate
daily averages, for
each day of the
week
Calculate the
difference between
the sample and his
daily average
Calculate 288
initial d
t
's as the
mean from 7
differences, for the
same time
Calculate 2016
initial w
t
's

as the
difference between
the sample and the
weekly mean
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Smoothing parameters , , and

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Estimate , , and
Calc l
t
, d
t
, w
t
, e
t
Calc provisory
predictions Y
t
(1)
Calc provisory errors
(y
t
-Y
t
)
Vary , , and to
minimize the errors
Use , , and with
lowest error for next week
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Proposed real-time procedure

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Measured demand
(y
t
) arrives from
smart meter
Calculate error e
t,
level l
t,
indexes d
t
and
w
t

Write actual data to
database, read l
t-1
, d
t-
m1+k1
and w
t-m2+k2

Making forecasts as
many 'k' steps ahead
as needed Y
t
(k)
Take action if needed
based upon forecast
Eventually, update
smoothing
parameters
(suggestion: weekly)
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Results based on 5 minute intervals

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Week Data interval MAPE
1 10.26.2011 11.01.2011 5,15%
2 11.02.2011 11.08.2011 4,52%
3 11.09.2011 11.15.2011 4,91%
4 11.16.2011 11.22.2011 3,85%
5 11.23.2011 11.29.2011 3,59%
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Example 24 hours nov. 24, 2011

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d
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i
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k
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Time (hours)
Measured load
Forecasted load - 5 minutes ahead
% error
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Conclusions
Double seasonal exponential smoothing can be
used for real-time demand forecast;
Only one week of load history necessary;
Error lies around 5%;
Further improvements:
Robust holiday and exceptional days filter;
Outliers detection and treatment (ex.: power outage);
Shorter intervals under test (1 minute);
12 8/7/2014

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Questions?
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria RS Brazil
Centro de Estudos em Energia e Sistemas de Potncia

Lukas Neusser lukasneusser@hotmail.com
Luciane Neves Canha lucianecanha@ufsm.br

13 8/7/2014

IEEE Powereng 2013 Lukas Neusser

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