Dead sea climate change

Mesometeorology seminar
Lecturer: professor Pinhas Alpert
Roni Lapid
18.5.2009
 Literature
 RECENT CHANGES IN THE CLIMATE AT THE
DEAD SEA )P. Alpert, H. Shafir, D. Issahary 1997).
 A MODEL SIMULATION OF THE SUMMER
CIRCULATION FROM THE EASTERN
MEDITERRANIEAN PAST LAKE KINNERET IN THE
JORDAN VALLEY (P. Alpert, A. Cohen, J. Neumann,
E. Doron 1982).
 Encyclopedia of climate (367-373).
 Outline
Part I - background and overview
 Historical survey of the last 80 years.
 The general circulation in the dead sea and
the inland//kinneret.
 Modeling the breeze and the σ coordinates.
 Pan evaporation.
Part II – dead sea climate change
 Measured indication for climate change.
 3 D model for climate change investigation.
 Summery.
 Historical survey
 The dead sea level was steady for many
years, but since the Dganya dam has built,
the natural flow of the southern Jordan
river reduced
dramatically.

Rutenberg hydroelectric
Power station
 Historical survey
 Damming the Yarmuch and the Jordan rivers
was the first anthropogenic change, but not
the last, the Dead Sea Works company
(Est. 1929) make a use in the water from the
northern basin to produce
a verity of minerals
by evaporating water
in the southern basin.
 Historical survey
 Mean sea level and area during the last 80 years
in meters under the sea level.

Sea area Sea level

1999 1969 1939

 today the lake lose more than 1m ∗ year −1

General circulation in the dead sea
 The circulation in the dead sea is ruled by three
mesometeorological systems (the lake breeze and
the sea breeze) and the one synoptic system (the
etesian winds).
 The interaction between those three systems-
governing the local climate of the dead sea.
 To understand better the circulation,
we’ll use the techniques that Alpert at al (1982)
developed for mesoscale systems.
 P-2δp
Land lake breeze
ρ-δρ ρ-δρ P-2δp

p▼ ρ▼ ρ ρ
P-δp P-δp

P P

warm cool warm

:Baroclinic torque
Land lake breeze
B ∇ρ × ∇ p
=
ρ ρ3 H L L H

Lake breeze
Lake breeze
L L
H H

The baroclinic torque accelerate

the air toward the upper Area
above lake, than the air decrease
.To the surface of the lake
Finally the air move from the
Lake to the surrounding land
 The etesian winds
 The synoptic major system in the summer
known as the Persian through that cause
north westerly winds in the Levant, called the
etesian winds.
06:00 14:00
 Sigma coordinate

 Because of the complication of the bottom

boundary condition Philips (1957) introduced to
“normalized pressure” or sigma coordinate.
 the sigma coordinate is
defined by

p− p
σ= t

p −p
s t
 where p is the air
pressure, and the
subscripts s and t refer to
the surface and top of the
model.

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The advantages of the σ coordinate

n It produce simple formulation for handling the

lower boundary layer.
n Allows for good depiction of continuous fields
such as temperature advection and wind. (lee
mountain slope)
n The model can better define boundary layer
processes such as low-level wind, turbulence
etc.

12
The disadvantages of the σ coordinate

1. The coordinate surfaces slope steeply to

follow steep mountains,
2. Horizontal derivative calculations yield
errors in the vicinity of mountains, particularly
for pressure gradient force
3. Errors increase as model resolution
increases with mountain slopes being better
represented.

13
 D coordinates 2
Z X

= 45
X

X
0
σ=
σ
1 0
σ= X=

Pt=(σ=0)=750mb
 Model for the inland breeze
 In this section we will try to understand the
mechanism of breeze inland and its
amplification.
 Our motivation for Better understanding of
the breeze mechanism, is to conclude about
the dead sea circulation with this research
realization.
 For this reason we will use 2 D model with
resolution of 4 km.
 Model for the inland breeze
 The model is 2 dimensional and assume:
1. Quasi hydrostatics.
2. Steady large scale geostrophic wind.
 The model in (x,σ,t) coordinate system are:
∂u ∂u ∂u RT ∂p* φ
(1) =− u − σ + f −
v( v −g) − + F
∂x ∂ σ
x
∂t p
p* +∂ t x∂ x
σ
∂v ∂v ∂v
(2) = −u −σ − f( u −ug ) +Fy
∂t ∂x σ
∂
∂φ
(3) =− c pθ
T
∂
θ
 Model for the inland breeze
(4) ∂θ ∂θ ∂θ
= −u −σ + Fx
∂t ∂x ∂σ
∂p* ∂ ∂
= − ( px u ) − ( pxσ )
(5) ∂p* ∂ ∂ ∂t ∂x ∂σ
= − ( px u ) − ( pxσ )
∂t ∂x ∂σ
(6) 1
∂p* ∂ p(*u )
=− ∫ dσ
∂t 0
∂

T ( K )= 3 0 0 − 0 .00 65 z
S G
+
(7)
E [ 11 .7 9 sin( + y 0 .376
) + 5 .73
( sin 2 y) 0.2
− 5 1 ( 1.87+)sin 39 ysin(1.1
4 1−) ].2
0.6
 Initial conditions
TEMP[ C]
 The integration 12 17 22 27 32
700

starts at 08:00 750

barometric pressure [mb]

LST. 800

850
 The model assume 900

inversion layer in 950

1000
930-900 [mb] layer.
 At Z=0 we put T=300 K and p=1000 mb.
 There is no horizontal gradient pressure.
 Without friction the geostrophic wind is:

Vg = (u g , vg ) = (3, −1)m ⋅ s −1
 Model’s realization

Penetration
Of the sea
Breeze front

Vertical wind
cm/sec*2
cm/sec*4

Lake Kinneret
 Model’s realization
Temperature profile
Wind speed calculated
) In point 8 km from the sea (a
:and observed
):And above lake Kinneret (b
 Model’s realization
• The amplification of the wind in the lake Kinneret occurs
due to three mean reasons:
1. The penetration of the breeze front
lead to sudden rise in the air pressure which increase
the pressure gradient:
The coast
2. The lake breeze that flaw up
slope, delay the westerly
sea breeze, this delay cause
an “outbreak” of the sea Lake center
breeze when the east
(lake breeze) wind weakening.
3. The cool sea breeze is more density, and accelerate
below the warm air that exist above lake Kinneret.
 Visual explanation for the strong
wind in the kinneret
continuity consideration
Cause wind acceleration

Inversion layer

Dry
Lower Galilee Warm air
Moist cold air Mountain

Acceleration due to
down lifting
 Pan evaporation
 Measuring the evaporation rate of the lake is
not a simple task, many variables affect the
rate of the evaporation and make it hard to
estimate.
 The most persists way to estimate
the evaporation rate, called:
pan evaporation, which
makes a use with a large pan
that simulating the environment
of the water source.
 Pan evaporation
 Empyrean studies showed from observations that the
formula of evaporation is E = C (ew − ea ) )shaw, 1993(
where E is the evaporation rate, C- is a factor that
incorporates the effect of the wind speed, barometric
pressure and other variables such as exposure.
is the saturation water vapor pressure at the SST.
ew is the vapor pressure of the air
 eAnother
a studies showed the formula

E = 0.771(1.465 − 0.0186 B )(0.44 + 0.11w)(ew − ea ))Rohwer, 1931(

.where w is the wind speed and B the barometric pressure
 Part II
Dead sea climate change
Yearly pan evaporation at Sdom
Mean evaporation per month at Sdom

)Mean evaporation (cm

month
 Explanation to the increase in pan
evaporation
 As we can see, the increase in pan evaporation is a
solid fact, but why it happens?
 The reason for that change derived from the
decreasing area of the dead sea
weakening of the its breeze
decrease of the RH and
increase in the air temperature
tending pan evaporation to increase.
 This process reach is maxima during the spring when
temperature gradient between the lake and land tend
to increase.
Other climate variables changing
 D model for the dead sea climate 3
change
 After we all become convinced in the recent
changes of climate variables in the dead sea,
we would like to use a mesoscale model to
investigate the further climate changes in the
dead sea.
 For that reason, a 3 dimensional model
based on the MM4 run for 24 hours in the
early summer in order to find those
implications.
 Model boundary conditions
 The model assume this physical parameters:
 Model boundary conditions
No sea Present sea Full sea
 The model contain
47 grid point
distributed to 34
points at the
Northern basin
and 13 points at
Southern basin.
 The model was
run for 3 different
sea level condition:
model results for climate variables
Full sea

No sea

Present sea
full sea’ minus‘
’present sea ‘
 Distribution of the wind vector
Present sea ”Full sea” minus “present sea“

June 1987 12 UTC 17

Surface Temperature change
A B
•Temperature interval:
2 Cº in A.
1 Cº In B.
Relative humidity change
A B  The interval is:
5% in A.
2% in B.
 We can see significant
decrease at the
southern basin.
 Sea
breeze Past breeze interaction

nt
fr o
e ze
e
Br
Lake breeze
 Sea
breeze present breeze interaction

Lake breeze
nt
fro
ze
ee
Br
 summery
 Both model and observations agree for climate
change in the dead sea.
 The climate change effected by the decreasing area
of the dead sea area, which weakening the lake
breeze.
 The lake breeze that temperate the climate of the
dead sea become less affective, due to early
penetration of the sea breeze front.
 The sea breeze flow down slope in interval of
1300 m and warming adiabatically.
 summery
 Reducing the temperate component, increase
the temperature and the pan evaporation,
and decrease the relative humidity and the
wind speed.
 Summarize all the information we have about
the dead sea climate, lead us to
consciousness that the dead sea is tending to
fast process of desertification.
Thank you for listening