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Triumphant Institute of
Management Education P
Ltd
Nyayapati Gautam
Indo-Pak Relations
Indo-Pak: A Timeline
1947/48 - The first Indo-Pak
war
Raids launched on Oct 22nd.
Maharaja Hari Singh signs IOA
on 26th Oct. 1947
To be ratified by a referendum, to
be held after hostilities ceased


A Timeline
1954 -
The accession of J&K is ratified
by its constituent assembly.


A Timeline
1965
2nd Indo-Pak war
1966
In Jan1966 Lal Bahadur Shastri
and Ayub Khan sign an
agreement at Tashkent.
Withdraw to pre-August lines.

A Timeline
1971
Bangladesh Liberation
1972

1989
Kashmir Flashpoint

A Timeline
1999 -
Lahore Declaration
2001 -
Agra Summit & Attack on our
Parliament
2008
LOC trade & Mumbai Attacks
2009
Sharm el Sheikh

J&K TIMELINE
1846 Treaty of Lahore.
Jammu & Kashmir created when
Raja Gulab Singh acquired the
area to the eastward of the
River Indus and westward of the
River Ravi. from the East India
Company.

A Timeline
1947 - Invasion by Pakistan
Violation of the Standstill
Agreement
Oct 26th -
Accession to the Indian Union


A Timeline
1949 - UNCIP Resolution
Plebiscite to decide accession of
J&K.
The Constituent Assembly
adopts Article 370 of the
Constitution.


Timeline
1951
1st Elections in J&K
1965
Operation Gibraltar
1966
Tashkent Declaration

Timeline
1989
Rubaiya Sayeed kidnapping
(Mufti Md Sayeed)
5 JKLF militants released

Timeline
1990
Protests in J&K
Exodus of Kashmiri Pandits
1999
Kargil
2000
Chhatisinghpora - Massacre of
Sikhs

Timeline
2003
Restoration of Diplomatic Ties
2004
Dr Man Mohan Singh & Parvez
Musharaf meeting in NY


Timeline
2008
Unrest in the valley fuelled by
Mirwaiz Umar Farooq
Stone Pelting

J&K in 2012
Steep decline in terrorism-
related fatalities.
Gram Panchayat Quota the
Legislative Council filled.
96% (~32,000 out of 33,540)
Gram Panchayat members voted
1.5 mn tourists.
Lifting of Travel Advisory by UK

J&K in 2012
Failure of separatists:
Seeking direct help
Reportedly separatist leaders,
led by Mirwaiz Omar Farooq met
with ISI chief Zaheer ul Islam as
well chiefs of LeT and HM.
Armed militancy would revive in
the Kashmir Valley in 2014

J&K in 2012
Some former militants have
also been appointed to senior
government posts in the State
After qualifying the State
Administrative, Police or Judicial
Services examinations

J&K in 2012
Targeting of Gram Panchayat
members.
AFSPA:
Centre clarified that AFSPA
could not be removed as long as
the presence of the Army and
Central Paramilitary Forces was
required.

The Abode of Roses
The Abode of Roses
Siachen
Siachen glacier:
Is the Himalayan watershed that
draws a line between Central
Asia and the Indian sub-
continent
It separates Pakistan from China
in this region.

Siachen Some Facts
The 2nd longest non-polar
glacier.
It is 70 km long and flows from
5750 meters to 3620 MSL.
Lies in Eastern Karakoram
Range just East of the Saltoro
ridge line.
The major passes on this ridge
are:
Sia La at 5589 meters
Bilafond La at 5450 meters
Gyong La at 5689 meters



Genesis of the Conflict
Non-demarcations on the map
northward to the China
boundary beyond NJ9842
This is the dead end in the India-
Pakistan Line of Control
agreement.

Earlier agreements presumed
that:
No one would vie for control of
an utterly barren and permafrost
area where normal human
habitations cant survive.
Prior to 1984, neither India nor
Pakistan had any permanent
presence in the area.

Pakistani activity
1970s onwards through the
early 1980s, Pakistan
permitted several
mountaineering expeditions to
climb high peaks on Siachen.

Indian Counter
The most notable was the one
in which Colonel N. Kumar led
an Army expedition to Teram
Kangri peaks as a counter-
exercise.


Indian Preparation
Kumaon Regiment and others
were sent on a training
expedition to Antarctica in
1982 to get familiar with
operating in glacial conditions.


Pakistani Counter
Pakistan too realised the
importance of Siachen.
Small Pakistani mistake:
It ordered Arctic weather gear
from the same London outfitters
who also supplied the Indian
Army.
India was alerted and ordered
300 outfits.

Operation Meghdoot
April 13, 1984
Assault launched.
Pakistan launched its assault
on April 17th 1984
Only to find the Indian army dug
in.
We control the heights
Acc to Musharraf we gained
about 2,300 sq km of territory.

Pakistani Attempts
Several attempts by Pakistan
to win back the strategic
advantage.
The most well known was in
1987:
Attack masterminded by
Musharraf heading a newly
raised elite SSG commando unit
raised with help from the United
States Special Operations
Forces.

Pakistani Attempts
The immediate aim was to
capture Bilafond La.
Initial Pakistani success
But after bitter fighting that
included hand to hand combat,
the Pakistanis were thrown back
and the positions remained the
same.


AGPL
Actual Ground Position Line
Withdrawal without
authenticating the AGPL Big
Mistake.

Why Hold on?
Strategic Wedge
Prevents China-Pak link up.
Indian presence important as
China looks to further connect its
Xinjiang region with Tibet
Through chunks of territory that
India still claims in Aksai Chin
and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir
(PoK).
Threat to Ladakh.


Sir Creek
It is a 96-km water body that
empties out into the Arabian
Sea from the Rann of Kutch
It is not very major - involving
100-150 sq. km. of a swamp
that remains flooded through
half the year.

Maritime Boundary
Need to determine the
Maritime Boundary.
The last point on the boundary of
where the Creek at low tide hits
the sea will be the beginning
point of the maritime boundary
Its orientation northwards or
southwards could add or
subtract several thousand
square kilometres of the oceanic
shelf

India has suggested that the
maritime boundary be
determined first by beginning
with mutually acceptable points
from the shore line of India and
Pakistan, 250 km out to sea,
and working inwards to plot the
boundary.

Survey
A joint survey of Sir Creek was
taken up in two phases in
January and February 2007.
This has generated a joint map
of the area, which was
authenticated by both sides
Methodology
Pakistan Eastern edge of the
Creek
India Middle of the Creek.
Using the 'thalweg' or the mid-
channel principle ('thal'- valley,
'weg' - way)
UN Convention
Under the UN Convention on
the Laws of the Sea
(UNCLOS), India and Pakistan
can claim up to 350 nautical
miles (648 km) of exclusive
economic zone out into the
sea.
But if they fail, theoretically a
third party could step in and
make a claim.

Expiry
UN has not reacted yet.
This is even after the expiry of
the deadline on May 2009.
The UN had set the deadline for
the archrival countries to resolve
this dispute amicably
Warning: After the expiry of the
deadline the disputed area of
sea would convert into
international waters.


Tulbul Navigation
We cant agree on the name
either.
Wullar Barrage vs Tulbul
Navigation
Some Facts:
439-feet long and 40-feet wide.
Maximum storage capacity of
0.30 million acres feet of water.


Some Facts
Location:
On Jhelum River in Jammu and
Kashmir
The Dispute:
India proposed to build the
barrage in 1984 on the River
Jhelum, at the mouth of Wullar
Lake.

Pakistani Protest
Pakistan protested claiming it
was a violation of 1960 Indus
Waters Treaty .
Pakistan believes it could be
used by India to control the flow
of the river and can be used as a
geo-strategic weapon.
India claims the barrage would
make the river navigable in
summer.



Pakistani Fears
The barrage can also disrupt
Pakistani canal projects.
Pakistan took the case to
Indus Waters Commission in
1986.
A year later it admitted its failure
to resolve the issue.


September 2012
Irrigation project at Navtour
Militants attacked the same.
Significant Water as a new
area of warfare.
Work re-started in December.


Pakistan has protested against
all the run-of-the-river projects
India is building on the Indus
and its tributaries despite this
being allowed under the Indus
treaty.


A few questions
Is Pakistan an Enemy State?
If yes, how do we deal with it?
Talks?
War? Or hot pursuit of terrorists?


A few questions
Should the composite dialogue
be dropped till perpetrators of
26/11 are brought to book?
A few questions
Are people to people contacts
the best way forward?
Why do we get over-eager
whenever there seems to be
an offer of talks by Pakistan?
A few questions
Are we a soft state?
If indeed Pakistan is sponsoring
terrorism in India then should
India not retaliate?
Have we done it in the past?
A few questions
Will economics play a big role
in bringing about peace?