Module 1. Quantitative Methods Research.

Questionnaire Based Survey

Course 1
Common knowledge and scientific
knowledge. Causality and hypothesis
Valeriu Frunzaru, PhD.
valeriu.frunzaru@comunicare.ro
Common knowledge

Common knowledge: socialization, intuition, prejudges,
rumors


Sociological imagination (C. Wright Mills, 1959)
Scientific knowledge
(positivist approach)
Fundamental statements in scientific knowledge (James
Wander Zanden, 1988, apud Chelcea, 2004, 39):

- real world exists independently of our observation and it
is not created by our senses

- relationships in the real world are organized in terms of
cause and effect

- real world can be known through objective observation
Scientific knowledge
(probabilist approach)
Principles of probabilistic metaphysics
(Patrick Suppes, 1884/1990, 71-72):


- laws of natural phenomena are essentially probabilistic

- causation has a probabilistic nature

- certainty of knowledge, in the sense of absolute
accuracy measures, it is unfeasible

- science as terminology, object and method is
characterized by pluralism

Scientific knowledge
Thomas S. Kuhn (1962/1999). The Structure of Scientific
Revolutions

- paradigm

- normal science (puzzle-solving)

- revolutionary science - paradigm shifts


Scientific knowledge
Is science value free?

- Axiological neutrality


Question: Can we be objective in social research?



Research ethic
Voluntary participation
Anonymity and confidentiality
Misguiding regarding the real reasons of the research
Physical or mental harm

Examples:
Stanley Milgram (1963) obedience
Philip Zimbardo (1971) Stanford prison study (guards and
prisoners)
Laud Humphreys (1970)Tearoom trade (watchqueen)


Scientific knowledge

Descriptive research

Explicative research

Fundamental research

Question: Which kind of research has a higher
value?
Scientific knowledge
Classification of the research methods:

transversal, longitudinal


quantitative, qualitative
Causality
Difficulties in establishing causality (Zamfir, 1987, 25-38):

1. The problem of establishing the causing direction (i.e.
the relationship between job satisfaction and
performance)

2. Time and distance issue

3. The problem of apparent causes (i.e.. personality traits
and poverty)

Causality
Difficulties in establish causality (Zamfir, 1987, 25-38):

4. The risk of being true based on false reasons
i.e. 1. the bag of amphetamine at the neck against cold;
i.e. 2. children from the rich families compared to children
from poor families had a better self image
wrong explanation: fathers from richer
families are closer to their children
correct explanation: other children show
them more importance (positive attitude)

Causality
Difficulties in establishing causality (Zamfir, 1987, 25-38):


5. The problem of the number of the cases

6. The problem of the interdependence

7. Contextual variation of causality

(see multycollinearity issue)

Hypothesis
a tentative statement about relationships between two ore more
variables as stipulated by theoretical framework or analytical
model

an unproven statement or proposition about a factor or
phenomenon that is of interest to the researcher (Malhotra,
2010, 85)

Formalised hypothesis:
If...., then...
The more..., the less/more

Variables
Variable = a characteristic of a case that the
researcher has chosen to observe or measure
and record. A variable must vary at a minimum
between two scale values. (Kent, 2007, 120)

Examples: gender, income, religiosity

- Independent variable (IV) = component If
- Dependent variable (DV) = component Then

Please give more examples of variables!

Hyphotesis
Validity of hypothesis:

generality
falsifiable the hypothesis could be shown
false
testable the hypothesis could be tested


Recommendation: hypothesis should be clear and
concise


Hypothesis
Examples:

H1. Customers who are store loyal are less knowledgeabale
about the shopping environment.

H2. Store-loyal customers are more risk averse than are
nonloyal customers.

H3. Familiarity with a restaurant results in a greater
preference for the restaurant.

H4. Women are more interested in organic food than men.

H5. Women and educated people are more interested in
organic food.


Hypothesis testing (Malhotra, 2010, 489)
Null hypothesis A statement in which no
difference or effect is expected. If the null
hypothesis is not rejected no changes will
be made.


Alternative hypothesis a statement that
some difference or effect is expected.
Accepting the alternative hypothesis will
lead to change in opinions or actions




Hypothesis testing.
Example

two-tailed test (nondirectional)
H
0
:
f
=
m
(women and men are equal interested in organic food)
H
1
:
f

m

(women and men are not equal interested in organic food)

one-tailed test (directional)
H
0
:
f

m
(women are not more interested than men in organic food)
H
1
:
f
>
m

(women are more interested than men in organic food)

symbols
H
0
null hypothesis
H
1
alternative hypothesis
level of interest in organic food; f females; m - males
Exercises
Write a hypothesis with the IV level of
education

Write a hypothesis with the IV advertising
exposure

Write a hypothesis with the DV number of
photos exposed on Facebook




Multicauzality
(Zamfir, 1987, 44)
hierarchical
status
income
job in services
Quality of life
(self perception)
education
children
rural/urban
age
R
2
(coefficient of determination)=.35
Education
Profession
Income
Job
Social
status
Lifestyle
Aspiration
level
Quality of
life
Drop out risk in high school
(Pricopie et al. 2010)
Model 1 Model 2
Sig. Exp(B) Sig. Exp(B)
Gender .001 .602 .675 .931
Parents encouragement .006 .647 .072 .742
Family income .000 .451 .000 .436
Time to get to school .000 1.013 .005 1.010
Parents education .013 .569 .379 .814
Materialistic values .000 1.515 .015 1.266
Average grade .000 .455
Constant .000 .073 .318 1.629
Explanation model
(linear regression model)
Y = a + b
1
x
1
+ b
2
x
2
+ + b
k
x
k
+ e

Y dependent variable
X
1
, X
2
, , X
k
independent variables
b
1
, b
2
, , b
k
- regression coefficient
a intercept
e error term
regression coefficient (b) = the rate of change of
DV as a function of change in IV

intercept (a) = the value of DV when IV = 0

error term (residual) (e) = error in measurement /
the difference between the expected value and
the observed value / the effect of the IV that
were omitted in the equation and of chaotic
phenomenon
Research questions (RQ)
- RQ are refined statements of the specific components of the problem
- RQ dont predict. Where research questions are interrogative,
hypothesis are declarative and can be tested empirically. (Malhotra, 85)

Examples:
RQ1. How do high technology firms perceive and use advertising?
RQ2. Do the warning influence parents decision about the suitability of a
program for the children viewing?

A research question can be transformed in hypotheses:
RQ. When do people eat comfort foods (potato chips, ice cream, etc.)?
H1. People eat comfort foods when they are in a good mood.
H2. People eat comfort foods when they are younger.


Bibliography
Chelcea, Septimiu. (2004). Metodologia cercetrii sociologice. Metode cantitative i
calitative. Bucureti: Editura Economic (pp. 28-57, 98-188)

Kent, Ray. (2007). Marketing Research. Approaches, Methods and Applications in
Europe. London: Thomson.

Kuhn, Thomas S. [1970](1999). Structura revoluiilor tiinifice. Bucureti: Editura
Humanitas.

Malhotra, Naresh K. [1996](2010). Marketing Research. An Applied Orientation.
New York: Pearson.

Mills, Wright C. [1959](1975). Imaginaia sociologic. Bucureti: Editura Politic.
Suppes, Patrick. [1984](1990). Metafizica probabilist. Bucureti: Editura
Humanitas.
Pricopie, Remus, Frunzaru, Valeriu, Corbu, Nicoleta and Ivan, Loredana. (2010).
Arguments for a New Policy Dialog on Access and Equity in Romanian Higher
Education. Revista Romn de Comunicare i Relaii Publice, 19, 9-25.

Zamfir, Ctlin. (1987). Structurile gndirii sociologice. Bucureti: Editura Politic
(pp.19-61).