CCAFS Scenarios on food security, agriculture,

environments and livelihoods globally and in

The MEAL Scenarios : A tool for guiding policy actions
and investment in SEA
IRRI HQ, Los Banos ( Philippines), 28/04/14
Presented by Dr. Rathana Peou
South East Asia Regional Scenarios Coordinator

What are scenarios?
Scenarios are multiple what if? stories about
the future, expressed in words, through
simulation models, in visuals originally from
the private sector & military
Scenarios can be used to explore different
directions of change in climate, markets,
governance and other key factors
Scenarios are not predictions
Scenarios are a tool for testing strategies, they
are not strategies themselves they represent
contexts
Testing plans at local, district, national levels


Multi-stakeholder scenarios
Examine assumptions shadow scenario
Overcome bias and planning for the past,
stretch and focus thinking
Elicit and connect stakeholder perspectives
Social learning
Examine roles in complex systems
Test and guide decisions and policies
Engaging with the future to re-organize
present structures
Schoemaker, 1993

East Africa: four socio-economic scenarios
CCAFS scenarios: Global and regional objectives
Guide public decision-making process for improved
future food security, environments, livelihoods

Scenarios used by private decision-makers to target
investments, research and development areas design
of agenda

Policy guidance, institutional change, investment
proposals opening a space of changes

Future: broad
uncertainty
S
c
e
n
a
r
i
o
s

Past
Present
perspective
Scenarios: why useful
Work with future uncertainties in concrete
and engaging manner (Vervoort et al. 2012)
Identify and frame contextual challenges
Identify institutional vulnerabilities
Test and develop policies
Test innovations
Build networks
Public engagement and awareness raising

Scenarios: challenges
Steep learning curve
Implications for organizations etc.
How to get from scenarios to actions
Bias for positive scenarios
Plausibility and consistency
Credibility of source, credibility of content,
credibility of channel
Legitimacy
Chaudhury et al. 2012, Schoemaker 1993

Factors
M
arkets
E
nforcement
capacity and
regional
collaboration
A
gricultural
investment
L
and degradation through
land use change
Land of the
Golden
Mekong
Common
regulated market
Strong enforcement
and strong regional
collaboration High public and private Low
Buffalo,
Buffalo Unregulated
Weak enforcement
and weak regional
collaboration
Unbalanced: high
private investment in
business and research High
The Doreki
Dragon
Common
regulated market
Strong enforcement
and strong regional
collaboration
Unbalanced: high
private investment in
business and research High
Tigers on
the Train
Protectionism and
closed market
Strong enforcement
and strong regional
collaboration Low public and private Low
Four scenarios for Southeast Asia
2009: Increasing realization that climate change fundamentally
alters how we should plan, govern, finance and implement
agriculture

Much discussion at international level but little country experience

2012: EC funds the FAO EPIC programme to work with 3 partner
countries (Vietnam, Malawi, Zambia) to develop the evidence base,
policy framework, strategy and financing to support CSA

Participatory scenario building an important way to bring together
the project work on evidence base, strategy and policy




Background on the project in Vietnam
FAO EPIC CSA project activities in Vietnam
With NOMAFSI as country partner institution:
Identified a series of CSA priorities to improve food security and adaptation under
climate change in the Northern Mountainous Region
Collected historical climate data at high resolution to be used in analyses of
barriers to adoption and impact of CSA activities
Use of historical climate data and cost benefit analysis of barriers to adoption of
CSA
Mapping institutions relevant to CSA implementation
Value Chain Analyses on Coffee & Tea in the Northern region
Scenario development to link the evidence base to investment proposals
CSA financing/investment specialist mission up-coming
Capacity building (MsC and PhD students; MARD officials to attend UNFCCC talks)
Investment Proposal Workshop on the 8-9
th
of May, 2014 in Hanoi

Decision makers and key stakeholders feedback
in SEA
Took an integrated systems perspective on the future of East Africa.
Got a better understanding of future challenges for food security,
livelihoods and environments and how to design strategies to address
these challenges, in spite of uncertainty
Learn about new regional linkages and find out what is being done in
other countries and recognise the need for more interaction
See the need for collaboration between state and non-state actors
facilitated by regional bodies.
Not enough time to well develop the full scenarios what next?
Thinking about engagement, how to engage and
for what? Process vs Outcomes
Scenarios work can be a very engaging and creative but difficult to measure
the changes and the impacts

We are talking about the future first and then linking the different futures to
the present, back casting allow to work both on the finance and the
program ( need based approach)

The present is being addressed in the context of the future, we are
addressing 2 types of reform

Big question mark of the ASEAN and what role of regulation and finance will
they play in those countries.



Policy dialogue and Investment In
Cambodia
Engaging Policy, support Policy Plan framing
within the context of scenarios, developing
tool of follow up and monitoring
Space, Time, Knowledge and Contacts are key
thus into knowing how to move into all the
dimensions that crossed food system and CC
in Cambodia.
Key learning and Outcomes

Supporting the brainstorming and writing
process of the CCAP (Climate Change
Agriculture Plan- 2014/2018) as well as
promoting direct adoption of Fiche Notes
(activity/ operation) with estimated fund
needed together with a narrowed focus of key
activities that are measured by their
feasibilities and impact.

A
c
t
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o
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N
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b
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Agricultural sector
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f

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(
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)

Preliminary Estimated budget (USD000)
(note: present costs to the nearest 1000 USD)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total
AGRICULTURE AND AGRO-INDUSTRY
1

Promoting and up- calling sustainable farming system
that resilient to climate change
1,2 GDA 2,694 2,694 2,694 2,694 2,694 13,470
2 Promote post-harvest technology for cereal crop and
tuber crop
DAI 2000 200 200 200 200 1,000
3 Develop crop variety suitable to AEZ resilient to CC
(include coastal zone).
2,3 GDA/
CARDI
2,676 2,676 2,676 2,676 2,676 13,380
4 Promote research work on appropriate technology
responding to climate change in Agricultural sector
2,3 GDA
CARDI
2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 11,500
5 Research and transferring of appropriate post-harvest
technology
2,3 GDA, DAI,
PDA
500 500 500 500 500 2,500
6 Development of knowledge and information system
on climate change
2,3 GDA,CARDI 433 433 433 433 433 2,600

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Photo credits: Neil Palmer