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What is Value?
In general, the value of an asset is the price that a willing and able buyer pays to a willing and able seller Note that if either the buyer or seller is not both willing and able, then an offer does not establish the value of the asset
There are several types of value, of which we are concerned with three:
Book Value - The assets historical cost less its accumulated depreciation Market Value - The price of an asset as determined in a competitive marketplace Intrinsic Value - The present value of the expected future cash flows discounted at the decision makers required rate of return
There are two primary determinants of the intrinsic value of an asset to an individual:
The size and timing of the expected future cash flows The individuals required rate of return (this is determined by a number of other factors such as risk/return preferences, returns on competing investments, expected inflation, etc.)
Note that the intrinsic value of an asset can be, and often is, different for each individual (thats what makes markets work)
Types of Securities
Debentures
Equity Preference Shares
Bonds
A bond is a tradeable instrument that represents a debt owed to the owner by the issuer. Most commonly, bonds pay interest periodically (usually semiannually) and then return the principal at maturity. Most corporate, and some government, bonds are callable. That means that at the companys option, it may force the bondholders to sell them back to the company.
Types of Bonds
Government Bonds These basically long term bonds issued by RBI on behalf of GOI. Corporate Bonds Companies borrow money by issuing bonds called corporate bonds or corporate debentures.
Straight Bonds It is also called as plain vanilla bond. It pays fixed periodic coupon over its life and returns the principle on the maturity date. Zero Coupon bonds It does not carry regular interest payments. It is issued at a step discount on face value and redeemed at face value on maturity. Floating Rate bonds These do not pay fixed interest but pay a benchmark rate such as the treasury bill interest rate.
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Bond Yields
Bonds are generally traded on the basis of their prices. However they are not usually compared on the basis of their prices because of significant variations in their cash flow patterns and other features. Instead they are compared in yields.
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Yield to Maturity This method is employed to anticipate the gross rate of returns offered by the bond over its life.
C= Annual Interest in Rupees M=Maturity Value in Rupees n=No of years left to maturity P=Price of bond r=Coupon Rate
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Eg: A Rs.1000 par value bond carrying a coupon rate of 9% and maturing after 8 years.The bond is currently selling for Rs.800. What if the YTM on this bond?
800= [90/(1+r) 8]+ [1000/(1+r) 8] By hit and Trial =90 (PVAF 12%,8 yrs) + 1000 (PVF 12%,8 yrs)= Rs.851.0 =90 (PVAF 14%,8 yrs) + 1000 (PVF 14%,8 yrs) =Rs. 768.1 =90 (PVAF 13%,8 yrs) + 1000 (PVF 13%,8 yrs) =Rs. 808 Applying interpolation: 13%+(14%-13%)*(808-800/808-768.1)=13.2% OR YTM = C+(M-P)/n = 90+(1000-800)/8 = 13.1% 0.4M+0.6P 0.4*1000 + 0.6*800
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Yield to Call Some bonds carry a call feature that entitles the issuer to buy back the bonds prior to the stated maturity date. For such bonds both YTC and YTM are calculated: YTC=[C/(1+r) t]+ [M*/(1+r) n*]
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Risks in Bond
Inflation Risk The interest rates are declared in nominal terms. Thus it should be adjusted with the expected inflation. Default Risk It is the risk that the borrower may not pay the interest or principle on time. Call risk The issuer may buy back the bond when the interest rates are declining. This risk is attractive from the issuer point of view but not from the investor point of view. Liquidity Risk Barring for some of the popular govt securities most of the debt instruments are not traded actively. Thus there is poor liquidity in the debt market and the investors face difficulties in trading the same.
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Reinvestment Risk When the bond pays periodic interest there is a risk that the interest payments may have to be reinvested at a lower interest rate. This risk is greater for bonds with longer maturity and higher interest payment. Foreign Exchange Risk If a bond has payments that are dominated by foreign currency it rupee cash flow is uncertain as there is a risk of depreciation of rupee in comparison to foreign currency. Interest Rate Risk Interest rates tend to vary causing fluctuations in bond prices.
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Bond Terminology
There are several terms with which you must be familiar to solve bond valuation problems:
Coupon Rate - This is the stated rate of interest on the bond. It is fixed for the life of the bond. Also, this rate time the face value determines the annual interest payment amount. Face Value - This is the principal amount (nominally, the amount that was borrowed). This is the amount that will be repaid at maturity Maturity Date - This is the date after which the bond no longer exists. It is also the date on which the loan is repaid and the last interest payment is made.
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There are two types of cash flows that are provided by a bond investments:
Periodic interest payments (usually every six months, but any frequency is possible) Repayment of the face value (also called the principal amount, which is usually $1,000) at maturity
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100
3
100
4
1,000 100 5
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I=Interest Payable on bond/Coupon Rate ADFI=Annuity discount factor applicable to interest DFF= Appropriate discount factor applicable to face value F= Face Value
Irredeemable Bond
Assume that you are interested in purchasing a bond with 5 years to maturity and a 10% coupon rate. If your required return is 12%, what is the highest price that you would be willing to pay?
100 0 1 100 2 100 3 100 4 1,000 100 5
= Present value for annuity for 100 @ 12% + present value of 1000 for 5 years @ 12%
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The value of a bond depends on several factors such as time to maturity, coupon rate, and required return We can note several facts about the relationship between bond prices and these variables:
Higher required returns lead to lower bond prices, and viceversa Higher coupon rates lead to higher bond prices, and vice versa Longer terms to maturity lead to lower bond prices, and vice-versa
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A share of common stock represents an ownership position in the firm. Typically, the owners are entitled to vote on important matters regarding the firm, to vote on the membership of the board of directors, and (often) to receive dividends
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There are three method of valuation of equity Balance sheet valuation Dividend discount model Free cash flow model
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Just like with bonds, the first step in valuing common stocks is to determine the cash flows For a stock, there are two:
Dividend payments The future selling price
Again, finding the present values of these cash flows and adding them together will give us the value
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three measures derived from the balance sheet are; book value, liquidation value, and replacement cost.
Book value: The book value per share is simply the net worth of the company divided by the number of shares.
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Liquidation Value
Value realised - Amt. paid to creditors &pref. sh. Holders. number of outstanding shares
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Replacement cost
The use of this method is based on the premise that the market value of a firm cannot deviate too much from its replacement cost
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Single-period valuation model Multi-period valuation model Zero growth model Constant growth model Two stage growth model
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Where the investor expect to hold the equity share for one year.
For example: Prestige equity share is expected to provide a dividend of Rs 2 and fetch a price of18 a year hence.what price would it sell for now if investors required rate of return is 12%?
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Assume that you are considering the purchase of a stock which will pay dividends of $2 next year, and $2.16 the following year. After receiving the second dividend, you plan on selling the stock for $33.33. What is the intrinsic value of this stock if your required return is 15%?
? 2.00 33.33 2.16
VCS
1.15
2.00
2.16 33.33
1.15
28.57
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it assumes that the dividend received by the shareholder will grows at a constant rate.
OR,
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Valuation of equity when there is a constant growth rate in dividend for a finite period
D1 VCS k CS g k CS g
D0 = Current Dividend D1 = Expected Dividend g = Growth Rate of Dividend Kcs = Expected Return on common stock Vcs = Value of Common Stock
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D 0 1 g
An Example
Recall our previous example in which the dividends were growing at 8% per year, and your required return was 15% The value of the stock must be:
VCS
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When there is constant growth of dividend for infinite period (Earning Capitalisation Approach)
V = Amount of Dividend / Ke
For Example: ABC Ltd is currently paying dividend @ Rs.60 .The current yield is 15%. Calculate the value of share. Ans: 60/.15 = 400
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This is the extension of the constant growth model assumes that the extraordinary growth will continue for a finite number of years and there after the normal growth rate
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H model
Assumptions: Current dividend growth rate is higher(ga) After 2H year the growth rate become gn. At H year the growth rate is exactly halfway between ga and gn. Po = D0[(1+gn)+H(ga-gn)]/ r-gn or P0 = D0(1+gn)/r-gn +D0h(ga-gn)/r-gn
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This model broadly involves determining the value of the firm as a whole by discounting the free cash flow to investors and then subtracting the vale of pref. and debt to obtain the value of equity. Total return = Dividend yield + capital gain yield
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Divide the future value in two parts, the explicit forecast period and the balance period. Forecast the free cash flow, year by year, during the explicit forecast period FCF= NOPAT- net invistment Calculate the weighted average cost of capital WACC= WeRe + WpRp.WdRd(1-t)
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Establish the horizon value Vh=FCFH+1/WACC-g Estimate the enterprise value Drive the equity value Ent. Value Pref. Value Debt value Compute the value per share
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Preferred Stock
Preferred stock represents an ownership claim on the firm that is superior to common stock in the event of liquidation. Typically, preferred stock pays a fixed dividend periodically and the preferred stockholders are usually not entitled to vote as are the common shareholders.
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Example:
Let us assume the face value of the preference share is Rs 500 and the stated dividend rate is 12%. The shares are redeemable after 5 years period. Calculate the value of preference shares if the required rate of return is 13%. Annual dividend = 500 x 12% =Rs 60 Redeemable Preference share value = 60 + 60 (60+500) ( 1+.13)1 ( 1+.13)2 ( 1+.13)5
Solving for the above equation, we get the value of the preference shares as Rs 482 (rounded).
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Thank You
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