Lecture 14

Alpha

Beta

Courtesy of ExxonMobil

FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

Objectives & Relevance Objective:

Introduce the types of considerations necessary to get a prospect ready for management approval

Relevance:
Demonstrate some the tasks that go into determining the size of the prize and the risk associated with a prospect

Courtesy of ExxonMobil

FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

Overview of Prospect Analysis

Given the geologic framework and the results of our data analysis, our next task is to analyze and assess viable prospects:

Analyze prospect elements

Source, Migration, Reservoir, Trap, Seal Consider the most-likely scenario

Consider other cases - the range of possibilities

Assess the prospect

What volumes of HCs can we expect? Will it be oil or gas?

Risk the Prospect

What is our level of confidence that all the prospect elements work?
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

Outline 1. Define prospect elements

2. Estimating trap volume

3. HC Type 4. Assessment 5. Risk

Courtesy of ExxonMobil

FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

Outline 1. Define prospect elements 2. Estimating trap volume

3. HC Type
4. Assessment 5. Risk
Plumbing To Connect the Container to the Kitchen

Correctly Placed Wells

A Container From Which Oil & Gas Can Be Produced

A Kitchen Where Organic Material Is Cooked

Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

A Real HC System
organic rich serves as a source rock

Draupne Shale

Heather Shale Sognefjord Shale

both organic poor

Oil Spill Point Fault Leak Point

Facies Change

HC Generation & Expulsion

Brent Sandstone
acts as a reservoir

HC Migration

oil & gas from the Draupne, gas from coals in the Brent

into Brent carrier beds and up faults

HC Fill & Spill

Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005

late gas displaces early oil L14 Prospect Analysis

Most-Likely Scenario
Alpha Beta
Sea Water

Fill & Spill

Oil

Overburden Seal

Migration

Oil

Reservoir Source Basement

Generation

Oil

18 Ma

Courtesy of ExxonMobil

FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

Most-Likely Scenario
Alpha Beta
Sea Water

Migration

Oil

Overburden Seal Reservoir Source Basement

Migration

Oil

Generation
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005

Oil

10 Ma

L14 Prospect Analysis

Most-Likely Scenario
Alpha Beta
Sea Water

Migration

Oil

Overburden Seal Reservoir Source Basement

Oil & Gas

Migration

Generation

Oil

Present

Generation
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005

Gas

L14 Prospect Analysis

Most-Likely Scenario
Alpha

Beta

Oil

Oil

18 Ma
Map of the Reservoir Unit
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

Most-Likely Scenario
Alpha Beta

Oil

Oil

10 Ma
Map of the Reservoir Unit
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

Most-Likely Scenario
Alpha Beta

Gas

Oil

Oil

Present
Map of the Reservoir Unit
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

Explorations Task
Identify Opportunities
Acquire Seismic Data Interpret Seismic Data

Capture Prime Areas

Drill Wildcats

Process Seismic Data Assess Prospects 1. 2. 3. 4. Volume HC Type Assessment Risk

FWS 2005

Failure

Success

Confirmation Well

Uneconomic Success
Drop Area

To EMDC or EMPC
L14 Prospect Analysis

Courtesy of ExxonMobil

Outline 1. Define prospect elements 2. Estimating trap volumes 3. HC Type 4. Assessment 5. Risk

Lets start an exercise

Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

Exercise 12 Parts 1 - 6
We will do some quick estimates using a series of simplifying assumptions

Courtesy of ExxonMobil

FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

Consider This .

Lets say our trap in cross-section view looks like this.

How can we get a rough estimate of the cross-sectional area?

Base 1

Height 1
Height 2 Base 2

Courtesy of ExxonMobil

FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

From Area to Volume

Volume of a Cone = 1/3

r2

*h

Alpha

Beta

Consider the trap to be approximately a cone

h
r
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

Outline 1. Define prospect elements 2. Estimating trap volumes 3. HC Type 4. Assessment 5. Risk
DHI Analysis AVO Analysis HC Systems Analysis

Courtesy of ExxonMobil

FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

Oil or Gas??? Should there be a difference in seismic response (AVO) between an oil-filled reservoir and a gas-filled reservoir?
Model response with different rock & fluid properties

Quantitative

If there should be a difference, which fluid type does the seismic data support?
Extract amplitudes from near- and far-angle stacks

From our basin modeling & HC systems analysis, which fluid type should we expect
What did the source generate What did the trap leak or spill
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

Qualitative

Model Seismic Responses - Input

10% Porosity 20% Porosity 30% Porosity

Gas

Oil

Brine

Courtesy of ExxonMobil

FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

Model Seismic Responses - Output

10% Porosity Offset 20% Porosity Offset 30% Porosity Offset

Courtesy of ExxonMobil

FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

Model Seismic Responses - Output AVO Crossplot

0.4
10%

0.2

Gas Oil Brine Shale 20%

Slope

0.0
30%

-0.2

-0.4 -0.3 -0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

Intercept
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

Questions???

Many times the seismic data will give us clues!

How can we verify this scenario? To what level are the traps filled with oil & gas? What would be the value ($) if our scenario is correct? How much more/less HC could there be? How risky is this prospect (chance that we are totally wrong)?
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

Seismic Line Across Alpha

Alpha

Fluid Contact? Gas over Oil? Fluid Contact? Oil over Water?

Courtesy of ExxonMobil

FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

Outline

1. Define prospect elements 2. Estimating trap volumes 3. HC Type 4. Assessment 5. Risk

Courtesy of ExxonMobil

FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

Types of Assessments
Once a lead has been high-graded into a prospect, we have to assess its potential value

Deterministic Assessment
One value for each parameter One final number, e.g., 200 MBO

Probabilistic Assessment
A range of values for each parameter A range of outcomes, e.g. 200 50 MBO

Courtesy of ExxonMobil

FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

Scenarios & Probabilities

Scenario 1
Alpha

Scenario 2

Alpha

Gas Cap & Oil Leg 40% Chance of Occurrence

Gas Only 20% Chance of Occurrence

Scenario 3
Alpha

Scenario 4
Alpha

Oil Only

Low Gas Saturation

30% Chance of Occurrence

Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005

10% Chance of Occurrence

L14 Prospect Analysis

Deterministic Prospect Assessment

To Assess a Prospect, We Assign Numbers to the Parameters related to HC Volumes
ESTIMATES Alpha 2.91 km3 1.02 km3 0.25 km3 0.20 km3 1280 MBO 288 MBO Beta 2.12 km3 0.66 km3 0.15 km3 0.12 km3 735 MBO 132 MBO

In our exercise, we have assumed the all oil case (Scenario 3)

1. Gross Rock Volume 2. Reservoir Volume 3. Pore Volume 4. In-Place Volume 5. In-Place Barrels 6. EUR Unrisked

7. EUR Risked

MBO

MBO

Unrisked means everything in the HC System has worked!

Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

Alpha Prospect Assessment Results

Oil
Million Barrels Oil

Gas
Billion Cubic Ft Gas

Oil-Equivalent
Million Oil Equivalent Barrels

Scenario 1
Oil & Gas

162 MBO 0 MBO 288 MBO 0 MBO

97 GCF 515 GCF 0 GCF 0 GCF

178 MOEB
6 GCF = 1 MBO

Scenario 2
Gas Only

86 MOEB
Uneconomic

Scenario 3
Oil Only

288 MOEB 0 MOEB

Uneconomic

Scenario 4
Low Gas Saturation

Assuming 100 MOEB is needed to make prospect economic

Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

Probabilistic Assessment

The Goal is to Get A Number and a Range of Possible Outcomes We Input a Range of Values for Each Assessment Parameter
usually minimum, most-likely, maximum
Area
Thickness Net:Gross Porosity

Min 12

ML 20

Max 27

HC Sat.

FVF

Recovery

Courtesy of ExxonMobil

FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

Unrisked Results
Alpha Prospect Unrisked
Excedance Probability
100%

100
80%

60% 40%

20%

0% 0

Economic Minimum
100

200

300

400

Million Barrels of Oil

50% Chance of finding 200 MBO or more 75% Chance of finding the economic minimum
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

Outline

1. Define prospect elements 2. Estimating trap volumes 3. HC Type 4. Assessment 5. Risk

25% Risk

75% Chance of Success

Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

9 Key Elements of the HC System

Source Quality Reservoir Presence Trap Quality

Source Maturation

Reservoir Quality

Seal Adequacy

HC Migration

Biodegradation

Not Low Gas Saturation

A team of experts consider these key elements for each prospect. They rate the chance of success (COS) for each on a scale of 0 to 1

Courtesy of ExxonMobil

FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

COS for Alpha

Alphas biggest risk is that the fault does not seal.

There is also some risk that the trap holds low gas saturation and that reservoir quality is poor
Reservoir Presence - - - - 1.0 Reservoir Quality Trap Quality Seal Adequacy - - - - 0.85 - - - - 1.0 - - - - 0.8 chance of success (COS)
Some Risk

Source Quality
Source Maturation HC Migration Biodegradation
Courtesy of ExxonMobil

- - - - 1.0
- - - - 1.0 - - - - 1.0 - - - - 1.0
FWS 2005

0.61
Highest Risk

Not Low Gas Saturation - 0.9

Some Risk
L14 Prospect Analysis

Risked Probabilistic Assessment Results

Alpha Prospect Main Compartment - Risked
1.0

100
0.8

Gas Only
Economic Minimum

61 % COS

0.6 0.4

Gas Cap & Oil Leg Oil Only

0.2

51 % Chance of Finding More Than the Economic Minimum

0.0 0

100

200

300

400

500

Million Oil Equivalent Barrels

72% Chance to find any hydrocarbons 58% Chance to find 100 MBOE 5% Chance to find 400 MBOE
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis

Exercise 14 Part 7

In the exercise we will use A COS of 61% An economic minimum of 100 MBOE

Courtesy of ExxonMobil

FWS 2005

L14 Prospect Analysis