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Nonprobability sampling
Typically used by qualitative researchers Rarely determine sample size in advance Limited knowledge about larger group or population Haphazard Quota Purposive Snowball Deviant Case Sequential
Types
A population is any well-defined set of units of analysis. The population is determined largely by the research question; the population should be consistent through all parts of a research project. A sample is a subset of a population. Samples are drawn through a systematic procedure called a sampling method. Sample statistics measure characteristics of the sample to estimate the value of population parameters that describe the characteristics of a population.
A population would be the first choice for analysis. Resources and feasibility usually preclude analysis of population data. Most research uses samples.
Haphazard Sampling
Cheap and quick Can produce ineffective, highly unrepresentative samples NOT recommended Person-on-the-street interviews Clip out survey from a newspaper and mail it in
Quota Sampling
First you identify relevant categories of people Then you figure out how many to sample from each category Ensures that some differences are in the sample Still haphazard sampling within the category, however
Purposive Sampling
Snowball Sampling
Identifying and sampling the cases in a network I find a prostitute to talk to, then ask her for some more prostitutes I could talk to, and it goes on and on and on
Seeks cases that differ from the dominant pattern or that differ from the predominant characteristics of other cases Selected because they are unusual High school dropouts example
Sequential Sampling
Researcher uses purposive sampling until the amount of new information or diversity of cases is filled Gather info until the marginal utility of new information levels off
Probability Sampling
Saves time and cost Accuracy Sampling element: unit of analysis or case in a population Population is all of the possible elements, specified for unit, geographical location, and temporal boundaries
Probability Sampling
Sampling frame is specific list that closely approximates all of the elements in a population
Can be extremely difficult because there just arent good lists for some things
Parameter v. Statistic
Parameter: characteristic of an entire population Statistic: estimates of population parameters based on sample
Sampling frame was automobile registrations and telephone directories Accurate predictions in 1920, 24, 28, and 32 Send postcard and respondents send back In 1936, sampled 10 million and predicted massive victory for Landon over FDR
VERY, VERY wrong Frame did NOT represent the target population (all voters) Excluded as much as 65% of voters, including most of FDRs supporters during the Depression
Each element has an equal probability of selection Can statistically calculate the relationship between sample and the populationsampling error Types:
Number all of the elements in a sampling frame and use a list of random numbers to select elements (or pull from a hat etc.) Pulling marbles out of a jar Random chance can make it so were off on the actual population, but over repeated independent samples, the true number will emerge
I am 95% certain that the population parameter lies between 2,450 and 2,550 red marbles in the jar
Systematic Sampling
Simple random sampling with a shortcut for selection Number each element in the sampling frame Calculate a sampling intervaltells researcher how to select elements by skip pattern
Systematic Sampling
I want to sample 500 names from a list of 1000 Sampling interval is 2 I select a random starting point and choose every other name to give me 500 Big problem when elements in a sample are organized in some kind of cycle or pattern
Stratified Sampling
First divide the population into subpopulations on basis of supplemental info and then do a random sample from each subpopulation Guarantees representation This can allow for oversampling as well for specific research purposes
Cluster Sampling
First you random sample clusters of information then draw a random sample of elements from within the clusters you selected
Cluster Sampling
Example
Want to sample individuals from Cleveland Randomly select city blocks, then households within blocks, then individuals within households Error shows up in each sample drawn
It depends Smaller the population, the bigger your sampling ratio will need to be to be accurate < 1,000 = 30% 10,000 = 10% > 150,000 = 1% > 10,000,000 = .025%
For small samples, small increases in sample size produce big gains in accuracy Decision about best sample size depends on:
Degree of accuracy required Degree of variability in population Number of variables measured simultaneously
Inference
The goal of statistical inference is to make supportable conclusions about the unknown characteristics, or parameters, of a population based on the known characteristics of a sample measured through sample statistics. Any difference between the value of a population parameter and a sample statistic is bias and can be attributed to sampling error.
Inference
On average, a sample statistic will equal the value of the population parameter. Any single sample statistic, however, may not equal the value of the population parameter. Consider the sampling distribution: When the means from an infinite number of samples drawn from a population are plotted on a frequency distribution, the mean of the distribution of means will equal the population parameter.
Inference
Inference
By calculating the standard error of the estimator (or sample statistic), which indicates the amount of numerical variation in the sample estimate, we can estimate confidence. More variation means less confidence in the estimate. Less variation means more confidence.
Inference
One way to increase confidence in an estimate is to collect a larger, rather than a smaller, sample. Measures of variability get smaller with larger samples:
But the value of a larger sample may be offset by the increased cost; this is yet another tradeoff in research design. To reduce sampling error by half, a sample must quadruple in size.