DEMAND FORECASTING

GROUP 9 MPE year II (2013-14 batch)

Jayant Iyer (Roll No: 16)
Mugdha Khandekar (Roll No: 22
Mrinal Singh (Roll No: 51)
Ruth Sequeira (Roll No: 45)
Vinayak Srivastava (Roll No: 52)

SPC is into the business of supply of recyclable/disposable containers for the food
industry.

Food containers manufacturing is a two-step process. First polystyrene sheet get wound
into rolls and secondly rolls are loaded into transformation process to convert into
container.

Plastic for containers are either clear or black.

Demand for containers made from clear black plastic & are seasonal in nature.

Capacity on extruders is not sufficient to cover demand for sheets during peak seasons
and therefore company need to build inventory of sheet in anticipation of future
demand.

Julie Williams is about to be assigned to a team who will be responsible for developing
the demand forecasting model.

 As demand for containers is seasonal and not linear, using the nave or
moving average methods will not be suitable for SPC.
Seasonality of demand also can be noticed from following graph where it can
be seen that demand is highest in Q4 and then it goes to least in Q2. However
annual sales is growing year over year.
Black Plastic
14000

12000
10000
8000
Black Plastic
6000

Linear (Black Plastic)

4000
2000
0
0

10

15

20

25

 As demand for containers is seasonal and not linear, using the nave or
moving average methods will not be suitable for SPC.
Seasonality of demand also can be noticed from following graph where it can
be seen that demand is highest in Q2 and then it goes to least in Q4. However
annual sales is growing year over year so there is trend also.
Clear Plastic
18000
16000
14000

12000
10000

Clear Plastic

8000

Linear (Clear Plastic)

6000
4000

2000
0
0

10

15

20

25

Looking at the demand for containers Julie Williams & team can evaluate from
the following four methods:

Static Regression Method

Trend & Seasonality Corrected Exponential Smoothing Method
Trend Corrected Exponential Smoothing Method
Simple Exponential Smoothing Method

 In this first de-seasonalized demand has been computed for T3 to T18 using
following formulae:
Here p is number of periods in a year which is 4 in this case.
Intercept and slope has been computed using excel formulae for deseasonalized
demand of T3 to T18 with respect to T.
Using intercept and slope deasonalized demand has been computed for each
period using following formulae:
Intercept + Slope*t
Seasonal factors has been computed for each period i.e. actual
demand/deseasonalized demand.
Average of seasonal factors has been computed for each quarters.
Forecast for each period has been computed using following formulae
Ft = (Intercept + Slope*t)*Season Factor of Quarter
MSE, MAD, MAPE & TS has been computed for forecast demand.

 Level for Period 0 has been computed by taking average of actual demand.
Level for succeeding period has been computed using following formulae:
Lt = D* + (1-)*Lt-1
Forecast of each period is equal to Level of immediately preceding period.
MSE, MAD, MAPE & TS has been computed for forecast demand.

 Level for Period 0 has been computed by computing intercept of deseaonalized demand
computed under static method. Similarly Trend for Period 0 has been computed by
computing slope of deseasonalized demand.

For all four periods of first year seasonal factor has been taken same which was computed
under static method.
Level for succeeding period has been computed using following formulae:
Lt = D/Seasonal Factor* + (1-)*(Lt-1+TRt-1)
Trend for succeeding period has been computed using following formulae:
TRt = (Lt - Lt -1 )* + (1- )*TRt-1
Seasonal factors for 2nd year onward has been computed using following formulae:
S5 = D1/Seasonal Factor of Period 1* + (1- )*Seasonal Factor of Period
1
In similar way S6, S7 . Can be computed by dragging the formulae up to Perio 20.

Forecast of each period will be computed by following formulae:

Ft=(Lt-1+TRt-1)*St

MSE, MAD, MAPE & TS has been computed for forecast demand.

 Level for Period 0 has been computed by computing intercept of actual demand. Similarly
Trend for Period 0 has been computed by computing slope of actual demand.

Level for succeeding period has been computed using following formulae:
Lt = D* + (1-)*Lt-1
Trend for succeeding period has been computed using following formulae:
TRt = (Lt - Lt -1 )* + (1- )*TRt-1

Forecast of each period is equal to sum of Level and Trend of immediately

preceding period.
MSE, MAD, MAPE & TS has been computed for forecast demand.

Time
Period
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

Black
Plastic
2250
1737
2412
7269
3514
2143
3459
7056
4120
2766
2556
8253
5491
4382
4315
12035
5648
3696
4843
13097

Intercept
Slope
2,592.75
226.86
Deseason Deseason
Seasonal
lized
lized
Factor
Demand Demand

3,575
3,784
3,965
4,070
4,119
4,272
4,237
4,274
4,595
4,969
5,390
6,083
6,575
6,509
6,490
6,688

2,819.60
3,046.46
3,273.32
3,500.17
3,727.03
3,953.88
4,180.74
4,407.59
4,634.45
4,861.31
5,088.16
5,315.02
5,541.87
5,768.73
5,995.59
6,222.44
6,449.30
6,676.15
6,903.01
7,129.87

0.80
0.57
0.74
2.08
0.94
0.54
0.83
1.60
0.89
0.57
0.50
1.55
0.99
0.76
0.72
1.93
0.88
0.55
0.70
1.84

Forecast

2,535.61
1,824.45
2,283.37
6,301.32
3,351.64
2,367.88
2,916.36
7,934.95
4,167.66
2,911.32
3,549.35
9,568.57
4,983.69
3,454.75
4,182.34
11,202.20
5,799.72
3,998.18
4,815.33
12,835.82

Error

285.61
87.45
(128.63)
(967.68)
(162.36)
224.88
(542.64)
878.95
47.66
145.32
993.35
1,315.57
(507.31)
(927.25)
(132.66)
(832.80)
151.72
302.18
(27.67)
(261.18)

Seasonal Factor
Qtrs

Seasonal Factor(Static
Method)

Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4

0.90
0.60
0.70
1.80

Abs. Errror

285.61
87.45
128.63
967.68
162.36
224.88
542.64
878.95
47.66
145.32
993.35
1,315.57
507.31
927.25
132.66
832.80
151.72
302.18
27.67
261.18

MSE

81,573.45
44,610.42
35,255.80
260,542.20
213,706.06
186,517.11
201,937.57
273,263.80
243,153.59
220,949.92
290,567.48
410,580.97
398,794.86
431,723.27
404,114.95
422,205.32
398,723.75
381,645.48
361,599.16
346,929.90

MAD

285.61
186.53
167.23
367.34
326.35
309.44
342.75
409.78
369.54
347.12
405.87
481.68
483.65
515.33
489.82
511.26
490.11
479.67
455.88
446.14

% Error MAPE

12.69
5.03
5.33
13.31
4.62
10.49
15.69
12.46
1.16
5.25
38.86
15.94
9.24
21.16
3.07
6.92
2.69
8.18
0.57
1.99

12.69
8.86
7.69
9.09
8.20
8.58
9.60
9.95
8.98
8.60
11.36
11.74
11.55
12.23
11.62
11.33
10.82
10.67
10.14
9.73

TS

1.00
2.00
1.46
(1.97)
(2.71)
(2.14)
(3.51)
(0.79)
(0.75)
(0.38)
2.12
4.52
3.45
1.44
1.25
(0.44)
(0.14)
0.48
0.45
(0.13)

Time
Black
Period Plastic
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

2250
1737
2412
7269
3514
2143
3459
7056
4120
2766
2556
8253
5491
4382
4315
12035
5648
3696
4843
13097

Level(L)

Forecast

Error

5,052.10
5,049.30
5,045.99
5,043.35
5,045.58
5,044.05
5,041.14
5,039.56
5,041.58
5,040.66
5,038.38
5,035.90
5,039.12
5,039.57
5,038.91
5,038.19
5,045.18
5,045.79
5,044.44
5,044.24
5,052.29

5,052.10
5,049.30
5,045.99
5,043.35
5,045.58
5,044.05
5,041.14
5,039.56
5,041.58
5,040.66
5,038.38
5,035.90
5,039.12
5,039.57
5,038.91
5,038.19
5,045.18
5,045.79
5,044.44
5,044.24

2,802.10
3,312.30
2,633.99
(2,225.65)
1,531.58
2,901.05
1,582.14
(2,016.44)
921.58
2,274.66
2,482.38
(3,217.10)
(451.88)
657.57
723.91
(6,996.81)
(602.82)
1,349.79
201.44
(8,052.76)

Abs. Errror

2,802.10
3,312.30
2,633.99
2,225.65
1,531.58
2,901.05
1,582.14
2,016.44
921.58
2,274.66
2,482.38
3,217.10
451.88
657.57
723.91
6,996.81
602.82
1,349.79
201.44
8,052.76

MSE

7,851,764.41
9,411,540.89
8,586,987.31
7,678,618.17
6,612,040.32
6,912,711.28
6,282,778.48
6,005,683.69
5,432,753.03
5,406,884.34
5,475,551.57
5,881,733.13
5,444,999.65
5,086,956.63
4,782,762.74
7,543,551.36
7,121,188.71
6,826,785.24
6,469,616.39
9,388,485.80

MAD

2,802.10
3,057.20
2,916.13
2,743.51
2,501.12
2,567.78
2,426.97
2,375.65
2,214.09
2,220.15
2,243.99
2,325.08
2,180.99
2,072.17
1,982.29
2,295.70
2,196.11
2,149.10
2,046.59
2,346.90

% Error

124.54
190.69
109.20
30.62
43.59
135.37
45.74
28.58
22.37
82.24
97.12
38.98
8.23
15.01
16.78
58.14
10.67
36.52
4.16
61.49

MAPE

TS

124.54
157.61
141.48
113.76
99.73
105.67
97.11
88.54
81.19
81.29
82.73
79.09
73.64
69.45
65.94
65.45
62.23
60.80
57.82
58.00

1.00
2.00
3.00
2.38
3.22
4.27
5.17
4.43
5.17
6.18
7.22
5.58
5.75
6.36
7.02
3.01
2.87
3.57
3.84
(0.08)


0.001
Time Black
Period Plastic
0
1 2250
2 1737
3 2412
4 7269
5 3514
6 2143
7 3459
8 7056
9 4120
10 2766
11 2556
12 8253
13 5491
14 4382
15 4315
16 12035
17 5648
18 3696
19 4843
20 13097

Level(L)
2,042.74
2,042.94
2,042.64
2,043.01
2,048.23
2,049.70
2,049.79
2,051.20
2,056.21
2,058.27
2,058.98
2,059.48
2,065.67
2,069.09
2,071.41
2,073.65
2,083.61
2,087.18
2,088.79
2,091.54
2,102.54

0.100
Trend(T)
286.61
257.97
232.14
208.96
188.59
169.88
152.90
137.75
124.47
112.23
101.08
91.02
82.54
74.63
67.40
60.88
55.79
50.57
45.67
41.38
38.34

Forecast

2,329.34
2,300.91
2,274.78
2,251.97
2,236.82
2,219.58
2,202.69
2,188.95
2,180.68
2,170.50
2,160.06
2,150.50
2,148.21
2,143.72
2,138.80
2,134.53
2,139.40
2,137.74
2,134.46
2,132.92

Error

Abs. Errror

79.34
79.34
563.91
563.91
(137.22)
137.22
(5,017.03) 5,017.03
(1,277.18) 1,277.18
76.58
76.58
(1,256.31) 1,256.31
(4,867.05) 4,867.05
(1,939.32) 1,939.32
(595.50)
595.50
(395.94)
395.94
(6,102.50) 6,102.50
(3,342.79) 3,342.79
(2,238.28) 2,238.28
(2,176.20) 2,176.20
(9,900.47) 9,900.47
(3,508.60) 3,508.60
(1,558.26) 1,558.26
(2,708.54) 2,708.54
(10,964.08) 10,964.08

MSE

MAD

6,295.29
162,145.03
114,373.39
6,378,428.81
5,428,979.83
4,525,127.16
4,104,153.82
6,552,155.63
6,242,022.52
5,653,281.83
5,153,598.87
7,827,510.21
8,084,952.23
7,865,304.76
7,656,673.18
13,304,335.46
13,245,860.76
12,644,877.65
12,365,474.09
17,757,754.39

79.34
321.63
260.16
1,449.38
1,414.94
1,191.88
1,201.08
1,659.33
1,690.44
1,580.94
1,473.22
1,858.99
1,973.13
1,992.07
2,004.34
2,497.85
2,557.31
2,501.80
2,512.68
2,935.25

% Error MAPE

3.53
32.46
5.69
69.02
36.35
3.57
36.32
68.98
47.07
21.53
15.49
73.94
60.88
51.08
50.43
82.26
62.12
42.16
55.93
83.71

3.53
18.00
13.89
27.67
29.41
25.10
26.71
31.99
33.67
32.45
30.91
34.50
36.53
37.56
38.42
41.16
42.40
42.38
43.10
45.13

TS

1.00
2.00
1.95
(3.11)
(4.09)
(4.79)
(5.80)
(7.13)
(8.15)
(9.09)
(10.02)
(11.23)
(12.27)
(13.28)
(14.28)
(15.42)
(16.44)
(17.42)
(18.43)
(19.51)


0.001

0.100

0.200

Time Black
Level(L)
Period Plastic

Trend(T)

Seasonal
Factor

Forecast

Error

Abs.
Errror

MSE

MAD

0
2,592.75
1 2250 2,819.29
2 1737 3,045.96
3 2412 3,272.96
4 7269 3,500.32
5 3514 3,727.48
6 2143 3,954.04
7 3459 4,181.64
8 7056 4,407.98
9 4120 4,634.85
10 2766 4,861.62
11 2556 5,086.91
12 8253 5,312.88
13 5491 5,540.15
14 4382 5,768.64
15 4315 5,995.83
16 12035 6,223.38
17 5648 6,450.10
18 3696 6,676.37
19 4843 6,903.36
20 13097 7,130.44

226.86
226.82
226.81
226.83
226.88
226.91
226.87
226.95
226.89
226.88
226.87
226.71
226.64
226.70
226.88
226.91
226.98
226.95
226.88
226.89
226.91

0.90
0.60
0.70
1.80
0.88
0.59
0.71
1.86
0.89
0.58
0.73
1.80
0.89
0.58
0.68
1.75
0.91
0.62
0.69
1.79

2,535.61
1,824.24
2,282.99
6,300.63
3,276.36
2,345.56
2,949.41
8,180.42
4,133.27
2,833.99
3,713.55
9,588.96
4,936.85
3,345.48
4,102.90
10,916.91
5,877.49
4,113.22
4,772.89
12,764.96

285.61
87.24
(129.01)
(968.37)
(237.64)
202.56
(509.59)
1,124.42
13.27
67.99
1,157.55
1,335.96
(554.15)
(1,036.52)
(212.10)
(1,118.09)
229.49
417.22
(70.11)
(332.04)

285.61
87.24
129.01
968.37
237.64
202.56
509.59
1,124.42
13.27
67.99
1,157.55
1,335.96
554.15
1,036.52
212.10
1,118.09
229.49
417.22
70.11
332.04

81,573.45
44,592.14
35,276.05
260,892.21
220,008.60
190,178.59
200,107.52
333,134.23
296,138.87
266,987.29
364,527.40
482,881.54
469,358.64
512,573.56
481,401.03
529,446.65
501,400.79
483,215.96
458,042.28
440,652.75

285.61
186.43
167.29
367.56
341.57
318.40
345.72
443.05
395.30
362.57
434.84
509.93
513.34
550.71
528.13
565.00
545.27
538.15
513.52
504.45

% Error MAPE

12.69
5.02
5.35
13.32
6.76
9.45
14.73
15.94
0.32
2.46
45.29
16.19
10.09
23.65
4.92
9.29
4.06
11.29
1.45
2.54

12.69
8.86
7.69
9.10
8.63
8.77
9.62
10.41
9.29
8.60
11.94
12.29
12.12
12.95
12.41
12.22
11.74
11.71
11.17
10.74

TS

1.00
2.00
1.46
(1.97)
(2.82)
(2.39)
(3.67)
(0.33)
(0.33)
(0.18)
2.52
4.77
3.65
1.52
1.19
(0.87)
(0.48)
0.29
0.17
(0.49)

Time
Period
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

Clear
Plastic
3200
7658
4420
2384
3654
8680
5695
1953
4742
13673
6640
2737
3486
13186
5448
3485
7728
16591
8236
3316

Intercept
Slope
3,611.98
263.94
Deseason Deseason
Seasonal
lized
lized
Factor
Demand Demand

4,472
4,657
4,944
5,049
5,132
5,892
6,634
6,850
6,791
6,573
6,363
6,308
6,932
7,887
8,662
8,989

3,875.92
4,139.86
4,403.80
4,667.74
4,931.68
5,195.62
5,459.56
5,723.50
5,987.44
6,251.38
6,515.32
6,779.26
7,043.20
7,307.14
7,571.08
7,835.02
8,098.96
8,362.90
8,626.84
8,890.78

0.83
1.85
1.00
0.51
0.74
1.67
1.04
0.34
0.79
2.19
1.02
0.40
0.49
1.80
0.72
0.44
0.95
1.98
0.95
0.37

Forecast

2,951.64
7,862.48
4,174.99
1,935.68
3,755.64
9,867.60
5,175.90
2,373.49
4,559.64
11,872.71
6,176.80
2,811.31
5,363.63
13,877.83
7,177.71
3,249.13
6,167.63
15,882.95
8,178.62
3,686.94

Error

(248.36)
204.48
(245.01)
(448.32)
101.64
1,187.60
(519.10)
420.49
(182.36)
(1,800.29)
(463.20)
74.31
1,877.63
691.83
1,729.71
(235.87)
(1,560.37)
(708.05)
(57.38)
370.94

Seasonal Factor
Qtrs

Seasonal Factor(Static
Method)

Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4

0.76
1.90
0.95
0.41

Abs. Errror

248.36
204.48
245.01
448.32
101.64
1,187.60
519.10
420.49
182.36
1,800.29
463.20
74.31
1,877.63
691.83
1,729.71
235.87
1,560.37
708.05
57.38
370.94

MSE

61,681.69
51,746.96
54,507.91
91,129.09
74,969.38
297,538.89
293,528.78
278,939.63
251,641.49
550,580.52
520,032.40
477,156.54
711,645.22
695,001.18
848,127.53
798,596.80
894,841.13
872,979.95
827,206.94
792,726.56

MAD

248.36
226.42
232.62
286.54
249.56
405.90
422.07
421.88
395.26
535.77
529.17
491.26
597.91
604.62
679.62
651.89
705.33
705.48
671.37
656.35

% Error MAPE

7.76
2.67
5.54
18.81
2.78
13.68
9.12
21.53
3.85
13.17
6.98
2.72
53.86
5.25
31.75
6.77
20.19
4.27
0.70
11.19

7.76
5.22
5.32
8.70
7.51
8.54
8.62
10.24
9.53
9.89
9.63
9.05
12.50
11.98
13.30
12.89
13.32
12.82
12.18
12.13

TS

(1.00)
(0.19)
(1.24)
(2.57)
(2.55)
1.36
0.08
1.07
0.69
(2.85)
(3.77)
(3.90)
(0.07)
1.08
3.50
3.29
0.83
(0.17)
(0.27)
0.29


0.001
Time Clear
Period Plastic

Level(L)

Forecast

Error

Abs. Errror

MSE

MAD

0
6,345.60
1
3200 6,342.45
2
7658 6,343.77
3
4420 6,341.85
4
2384 6,337.89
5
3654 6,335.20
6
8680 6,337.55
7
5695 6,336.91
8
1953 6,332.52
9
4742 6,330.93
10 13673 6,338.27
11
6640 6,338.58
12
2737 6,334.97
13
3486 6,332.13
14 13186 6,338.98
15
5448 6,338.09
16
3485 6,335.24
17
7728 6,336.63
18 16591 6,346.88
19
8236 6,348.77
20
3316 6,345.74

6,345.60
6,342.45
6,343.77
6,341.85
6,337.89
6,335.20
6,337.55
6,336.91
6,332.52
6,330.93
6,338.27
6,338.58
6,334.97
6,332.13
6,338.98
6,338.09
6,335.24
6,336.63
6,346.88
6,348.77

3,145.60
(1,315.55)
1,923.77
3,957.85
2,683.89
(2,344.80)
642.55
4,383.91
1,590.52
(7,342.07)
(301.73)
3,601.58
2,848.97
(6,853.87)
890.98
2,853.09
(1,392.76)
(10,254.37)
(1,889.12)
3,032.77

3,145.60
1,315.55
1,923.77
3,957.85
2,683.89
2,344.80
642.55
4,383.91
1,590.52
7,342.07
301.73
3,601.58
2,848.97
6,853.87
890.98
2,853.09
1,392.76
10,254.37
1,889.12
3,032.77

9,894,799.36
5,812,729.79
5,108,783.46
7,747,724.18
7,638,830.66
7,282,036.59
6,300,727.01
7,915,465.86
7,317,054.40
11,975,944.83
10,895,498.79
11,068,486.40
10,841,422.49
13,422,434.86
12,580,528.81
12,303,002.85
11,693,402.30
16,885,554.60
16,184,670.94
15,835,322.56

3,145.60
2,230.57
2,128.31
2,585.69
2,605.33
2,561.91
2,287.71
2,549.74
2,443.16
2,933.05
2,693.84
2,769.48
2,775.60
3,066.90
2,921.84
2,917.54
2,827.85
3,240.44
3,169.31
3,162.49

% Error

MAPE

TS

98.30
17.18
43.52
166.02
73.45
27.01
11.28
224.47
33.54
53.70
4.54
131.59
81.73
51.98
16.35
81.87
18.02
61.81
22.94
91.46

98.30
57.74
53.00
81.25
79.69
70.91
62.40
82.65
77.20
74.85
68.46
73.72
74.33
72.74
68.98
69.78
66.74
66.46
64.17
65.54

1.00
0.82
1.76
2.98
3.99
3.14
3.80
5.13
6.00
2.50
2.61
3.84
4.85
2.16
2.57
3.55
3.17
(0.40)
(1.00)
(0.04)


0.001
Time Clear
Period Plastic
0
1 3200
2 7658
3 4420
4 2384
5 3654
6 8680
7 5695
8 1953
9 4742
10 13673
11 6640
12 2737
13 3486
14 13186
15 5448
16 3485
17 7728
18 16591
19 8236
20 3316

Level(L)
4,133.70
4,132.77
4,136.29
4,136.58
4,134.82
4,134.34
4,138.89
4,140.44
4,138.26
4,138.86
4,148.39
4,150.89
4,149.47
4,148.81
4,157.85
4,159.14
4,158.46
4,162.03
4,174.46
4,178.52
4,177.66

0.100
Trend(T)
210.66
189.50
170.90
153.84
138.28
124.40
112.42
101.33
90.98
81.94
74.70
67.48
60.59
54.47
49.92
45.06
40.49
36.79
34.36
31.33
28.11

Forecast

4,344.36
4,322.26
4,307.19
4,290.41
4,273.10
4,258.75
4,251.31
4,241.78
4,229.24
4,220.80
4,223.10
4,218.37
4,210.06
4,203.27
4,207.77
4,204.20
4,198.95
4,198.83
4,208.82
4,209.85

Error

Abs. Errror

1,144.36
1,144.36
(3,335.74) 3,335.74
(112.81)
112.81
1,906.41
1,906.41
619.10
619.10
(4,421.25) 4,421.25
(1,443.69) 1,443.69
2,288.78
2,288.78
(512.76)
512.76
(9,452.20) 9,452.20
(2,416.90) 2,416.90
1,481.37
1,481.37
724.06
724.06
(8,982.73) 8,982.73
(1,240.23) 1,240.23
719.20
719.20
(3,529.05) 3,529.05
(12,392.17) 12,392.17
(4,027.18) 4,027.18
893.85
893.85

MSE

MAD

1,309,553.27
6,218,342.77
4,149,803.70
4,020,956.66
3,293,422.93
6,002,434.07
5,442,694.03
5,417,168.90
4,844,475.34
13,294,432.14
12,616,886.24
11,748,349.52
10,884,958.56
15,870,987.82
14,915,466.95
14,015,577.87
13,923,732.73
21,681,635.82
21,394,086.32
20,364,330.38

1,144.36
2,240.05
1,530.97
1,624.83
1,423.68
1,923.28
1,854.77
1,909.02
1,753.88
2,523.71
2,514.00
2,427.95
2,296.88
2,774.44
2,672.16
2,550.10
2,607.68
3,151.27
3,197.37
3,082.19

% Error MAPE

35.76
43.56
2.55
79.97
16.94
50.94
25.35
117.19
10.81
69.13
36.40
54.12
20.77
68.12
22.76
20.64
45.67
74.69
48.90
26.96

35.76
39.66
27.29
40.46
35.76
38.29
36.44
46.53
42.56
45.22
44.42
45.23
43.35
45.12
43.63
42.19
42.39
44.19
44.44
43.56

TS

1.00
(0.98)
(1.51)
(0.24)
0.16
(2.18)
(3.04)
(1.76)
(2.21)
(5.28)
(6.26)
(5.87)
(5.89)
(8.11)
(8.89)
(9.03)
(10.19)
(12.36)
(13.44)
(13.66)


0.001

0.100

0.200

Time Clear
Level(L)
Period Plastic

Trend(T)

Seasonal
Factor

Forecast

Error

Abs.
Errror

MSE

MAD

0
3,611.98
1 3200 3,876.25
2 7658 4,140.11
3 4420 4,404.33
4 2384 4,669.40
5 3654 4,933.28
6 8680 5,196.75
7 5695 5,461.24
8 1953 5,724.08
9 4742 5,988.21
10 13673 6,253.32
11 6640 6,517.69
12 2737 6,781.60
13 3486 7,043.15
14 13186 7,306.56
15 5448 7,568.31
16 3485 7,832.50
17 7728 8,098.83
18 16591 8,363.15
19 8236 8,627.32
20 3316 8,890.31

263.94
263.97
263.96
263.99
264.10
264.07
264.01
264.06
263.94
263.96
264.07
264.10
264.08
263.83
263.79
263.58
263.65
263.91
263.95
263.98
263.88

0.76
1.90
0.95
0.41
0.77
1.89
0.96
0.43
0.77
1.85
0.98
0.42
0.77
1.91
0.98
0.41
0.72
1.89
0.93
0.42

2,951.64
7,863.16
4,175.25
1,935.92
3,820.18
9,819.43
5,237.67
2,484.01
4,596.43
11,538.41
6,360.18
2,816.68
5,442.52
13,983.42
7,452.67
3,234.44
5,804.61
15,821.50
8,036.43
3,728.78

(248.36)
205.16
(244.75)
(448.08)
166.18
1,139.43
(457.33)
531.01
(145.57)
(2,134.59)
(279.82)
79.68
1,956.52
797.42
2,004.67
(250.56)
(1,923.39)
(769.50)
(199.57)
412.78

248.36
205.16
244.75
448.08
166.18
1,139.43
457.33
531.01
145.57
2,134.59
279.82
79.68
1,956.52
797.42
2,004.67
250.56
1,923.39
769.50
199.57
412.78

61,681.69
51,886.51
54,558.76
91,113.49
78,413.78
281,728.75
271,360.46
272,687.39
244,743.23
675,916.23
621,587.38
570,317.57
820,905.53
807,689.26
1,021,756.39
961,820.36
1,122,856.35
1,093,371.68
1,037,921.94
994,545.40

248.36
226.76
232.76
286.59
262.51
408.66
415.61
430.04
398.43
572.05
545.48
506.66
618.19
630.99
722.57
693.07
765.44
765.67
735.87
719.72

% Error MAPE

7.76
2.68
5.54
18.80
4.55
13.13
8.03
27.19
3.07
15.61
4.21
2.91
56.13
6.05
36.80
7.19
24.89
4.64
2.42
12.45

7.76
5.22
5.33
8.69
7.86
8.74
8.64
10.96
10.08
10.63
10.05
9.46
13.05
12.55
14.16
13.73
14.38
13.84
13.24
13.20

TS

(1.00)
(0.19)
(1.24)
(2.57)
(2.17)
1.39
0.27
1.50
1.25
(2.86)
(3.51)
(3.63)
0.19
1.45
4.04
3.85
0.98
(0.03)
(0.30)
0.27

Method

Static Regression Method

Simple Exponential Smoothing
Trend Corrected Exponential Smoothing
Seanson and Trend Correct Exponential Smoothing

MSE

MAD

346,929.90
9,388,485.80
17,757,754.39
440,652.75

446.14
2,346.90
2,935.25
504.45

MSE

MAD

MAPE

9.73
58.00
45.13
10.74

TS Range
Min
(3.51)
(0.08)
(19.51)
(3.67)

Max
4.52
7.22
2.00
4.77

Summary of Errors(Clear Plastic)

Method

Static Regression Method

792,726.56
Simple Exponential Smoothing
15,835,322.56
Trend Corrected Exponential Smoothing
20,364,330.38
Seanson and Trend Correct Exponential Smoothing
994,545.40

656.35
3,162.49
3,082.19
719.72

MAPE

12.13
65.54
43.56
13.20

TS Range
Min
(3.90)
(1.00)
(13.66)
(3.63)

Max
3.50
6.00
1.00
4.04

1. In both cases all errors (i.e. MSE, MAD and MAPE) are least for static
regression method. It is recommended that Julie William & team should
select static regression method to implement demand forecasting model.
2. For both black and clear plastic TS range in simple exponential smoothing
and trend corrected exponential smoothing methods is lower than -6 or
higher than 6 so these two methods cant be selected.

3. For other two method TS are in range for both black and clear plastic.