THE BEST BALL STRIKER ON TOUR

AND

GOLF SHOT EVENT TREE ANALYSIS

Lucius J. Riccio Ph.D.
Columbia University

Golf and Analytics:

A Brief History
- Data was hard to come by
- You had to get it yourself
- Collected Data the Yogi Berra Way

- Golf itself was somewhat anti-analytical

- Jack Reddy 1963 US Open
- Cochran and Stobbs
- Clyne Soley
- Fran Schied
- 1974 US Open Sports Illustrated

Golf Analyzer - 1978

Individual Shot Software to measure each
part of the game
Identify weaknesses/recommend areas for
improvement
George Peper 1980 US Open
Walk with Watson and Nicklaus
Over 500 users, thousands of rounds
Baysian Approach to Strokes Lost Tee to Green
Putting Analysis Based on First Putt Length vs
Soley Data (what is now called strokes gained
putting)

1980 US Open
1981 Golf Magazine Article:
Nicklaus: 73.2% Fairways, 81.9% GIRs, 26.4% Iron
Shots to Within 15, and Putted 1.6 Strokes Per
Round Better than Average Pro
Watson: 75.0% Fairways, 77.8% GIRs, 30.2%
Irons Shots to Within 15, But Putted 0.7 Strokes
Worse Per Round than Average Pro
Average Cost of Missing Fairway on 4 Pars: 0.5
Strokes

Player Performance Case Study:

Golf
Regressed Score Against a Wide Range
of Factors
What Did I Find?
1987 Golf Digest Article
1990 World Scientific Congress of Golf

Results

Putting Isnt As Big A Discriminator as Tee-to-Green Play

Score is Mostly a Function of Greens in Regulation
Riccios Rule: Score = 95 2 * GIRs
When 4 Rounds Averaged 90% Within 2 Strokes
3 Greens Break 90
8 Greens Break 80
13 Greens Break 70
Iron Accuracy Most Highly Correlated to GIRs
Cochran and Stobbs

What About Putting?

GIRs Most Highly Correlated to Scoring
Putts Next
Riccios Revised Rule:
Score = 58 4/3 * GIRs + Putts
Accurate to within 1 stroke 80% of Rounds on
PGA Tour
Putts = 37 2/3 * GIR

Summary Stats by Ability Level

95 Scorer
0 Greens, 37 Putts

89 Scorer
3 Greens, 35 Putts

79 Scorer
8 Greens, 32 Putts

69 Scorer
13 Greens, 29 putts

Difference
26 Strokes Different from 95 to 69
8 are Putts
18 are Tee-to-Green

ShotLink
ShotLink System
Every Shot/Every Player/Every PGA
Controlled Tournament
Nearly 1.5 million shots per year
ShotLink is Golf Statistical Heaven!

What Does ShotLink Tell Us?

We Know Who Hits it the Longest: Bubba Watson

We Know Who the Straightest Driver Is: Jerry Kelly
We Know Who the Best Putter Is: Brandt Snedeker
Stats In-Between Are Detailed but Not Illuminating
So If Iron Play Is So Important, We Need A Pure
Measure

Who Is the Best Ball Striker on

Tour?

Bubba Hits A Lot of Greens?

He Hits More than Ben Curtis
Why?
Distance vs. Accuracy
Bubba Hits His Drives 30 Yards Further and is 30
Yards Closer to the Green
How Can We Account for Differences in Driving
Distance?
Current Stats Group by Distance Category
Not Very Definitive
Set Out To Develop Such a Stat

Fairway Green Hitting Standard

Every Fairway Shot of Between 150 Yards and 225
Yards for Every Pro, For Every Par 4, For Every Round
for the Year.
Find Relationship of Green Hitting Percentage of
Average Pro from Each Distance
(The same was done using average distance from the
hole after the shot.)

Result
Almost a Perfect Straight Line!
From 150 Yards, the Pros Average 81% Green
Hitting Accuracy
From 225 Yards, the Average is 42%.
Formula: % Greens Hit = 159 0.52 (Yardage)

Green Hitting Percentage vs.

Yardage of Shot to Green

What Can You Do With This?

For Each Pro, Find Their Personal Line
For Each Pro, Take Every Par 4 Fairway Shot Between
150 and 225 Yards for the Year
Put Green Hitting Results in Small Silos
(i.e 150-151 Yards, 152-154, 155-156. 224-225)

Find Actual Percentages in Each Category

Calculate Overall Percentage Hit
Using Standard, Calculate What the Average Pro
Percentage Would Be Given Distances of All Iron Shots

Results

Bubba Still Does Well

Better Iron Player Than Most Would Think
How About Tiger?
Outstanding!
But Who Is the Best?

Bubba Watson

Tiger Woods

Dustin Johnson

Best Ball Striker on Tour?

Justin Rose for Percentage Greens Hit
2013 US Open Champion

Lee Westwood for Average Distance from

Hole
-2013 Open Championship Runner Up

Justin Rose

26

GOLF IS A TEAM SPORT:

GOLF SHOT EVENT TREE ANALYSIS

27

A Brief Intro to Golf

The GOAL

Types of Holes

To complete
18 holes with
lowest score

Par 3 (150-200)
Par 4 (300-500)
Par 5 (500-650)

Score Per Hole

Birdie (1 under
Par #)
Par (Even with
Par #)
Bogey (1 over
Par #)

Terminology

Fairway
Rough
Green
Drive
Approach Shots
Putt

28

Golfers May Have Different Skill sets

Top 125 players retain their

PGA Tour membership every
year
Golf involves different types
of shots:
1. Long tee shots
2. Approach shots
3. Putts on green
These are skills which some
are good at

29

And Come in All Shapes and Sizes

30

But Which Skills are the Most Important in Making A Winner?

Any skill
categories players
can change to
become high
performers?
Long accurate
drivers?
Better Approach
to Greens?

Better Putters?

31

Using Big Data

Collect extensive

ShotLink data of 2013

tournaments
Par 4 holes ranging from
300 to 500 yards
Organize more than
90,000 golf holes played
(360,000 shots)
Analyze shot by shot

32

Can Our Tree Analysis Assess Skill Categories of Players?

G
72.7%

3.79

25.0%
71.3%
3.6%
0.0%
0.0%

F
61.9%

3
4
5
6
7
G

3.93

90.4%

4.29

71.3%
28.2%
0.5%
0.0%

4
5
6
7

NG
27.2%

4.30

G
91.1%

0.1%

5.21

NG
6.3%
3.4%

3.5%

6.21

4.02

G
47.1%

3.87

19.5%
74.5%
5.9%
0.1%

NF
38.1%

88.6%

5.5%

59.9%
39.0%
1.0%
0.0%

4
5
6
7

4.41

NG
52.9%

F = Fairway
NF = Non-Fairway
G = Green
NG = Non-Green

0.1%

G
4.47

89.6%

11.8%
58.8%
26.5%
2.9%

5
6
7
8

75.0%
24.2%
0.8%

5
6
7

2.9%
71.6%
22.5%
2.9%

5
6
7
8

3
4
5
6
G

4.18

5
6
7
8

5.18
NG

Tee

79.9%
19.0%
1.0%
0.1%

5.26

NG
9.5%

5.26

NG
5.7%

1.8%

6.25

3
4.6%

33

Phil Mickelson

G
75.5%
40.8%

3.73

F
54.1%

3.85

29.4%
12.0%
68.1%
27.8%
2.5%
1.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

3
4
5
6
7

G
96.2%
12.8%

4.24

NG
24.5%
13.3%
0.0%
0.0%

4.23

76.0%
9.7%
24.0%
3.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

4
5
6
7

2.00
NG

Tee

1.9%
0.3%
1.9%
0.3%

3.92

G
5.00

100.0%
0.3%

5.00

NG
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

G
56.1%
25.8%

3.72

NF
45.9%

4.01

30.7%
7.9%
66.3%
17.1%
3.0%
0.8%
0.0%
0.0%

100.0%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

6
7
8
5
6
7
8

3
4
5
6

G
96.2%
19.4%

4.39

NG
43.9%
20.2%
0.0%
0.0%

0.00

100.0%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

4.37

64.5%
12.5%
32.9%
6.4%
1.3%
0.3%
1.3%
0.3%

4
5
6
7

2.00
NG
1.3%
0.3%
2.5%
0.5%

G
5.00

100.0%
0.3%

5.00

NG
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

0.00
4

6
7
5
6
7
8

34

Tiger Woods

G
76.1%
53.3%

3.68

F
70.0%

3.84

32.2%
17.2%
67.8%
36.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

3
4
5
6
7

G
86.8%
14.5%

4.24

NG
23.9%
16.7%
0.0%
0.0%

4.34

75.8%
11.0%
24.2%
3.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

4
5
6
7

2.00
NG

Tee

10.5%
1.8%
2.6%
0.4%

3.96

G
5.50

100.0%
1.8%

5.50

NG
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

G
45.6%
13.7%

3.81

NF
30.0%

4.25

19.4%
2.6%
80.6%
11.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

100.0%
1.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

6
7
8
5
6
7
8

3
4
5
6

G
89.2%
14.5%

4.64

NG
54.4%
16.3%
0.0%
0.0%

0.00

75.0%
1.3%
0.0%
0.0%
25.0%
0.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

4.62

39.4%
5.7%
57.6%
8.4%
3.0%
0.4%
0.0%
0.0%

4
5
6
7

2.00
NG
8.1%
1.3%
2.7%
0.4%

G
5.00

100.0%
1.3%

5.00

NG
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

0.00
4

6
7
5
6
7
8

35

Phil Averages 3.92 vs. Tigers

3.96
If in Fairway, About the Same
Phil 3.85, Tiger 3.84
If Fairway Missed, Phil Has the
Advantage
Phil 4.01, Tiger 4.25

36

Our Tree Reveals Truth of Many Categories

G
74.1%

3.79

26.1%
68.8%
5.1%
0.0%
0.0%

F
59.1%

3
4
5
6
7
G

3.89

92.7%

4.24

76.5%
23.5%
0.0%
0.0%

4
5
6
7

NG
25.9%

4.18

Tee

0.0%
4.04

0.0%

0.00

NG
3.6%

5
6
7
8

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

5
6
7
8

4.00
NG

3.6%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

0.0%
100.0%

0.00
4

37

A Regular Player Lacks

G
74.1%

3.79

26.1%
68.8%
5.1%
0.0%
0.0%

F
59.1%

3
4
5
6
7
G

3.89

92.7%

4.24

76.5%
23.5%
0.0%
0.0%

4
5
6
7

NG
25.9%

4.18

Tee

0.0%
4.04

0.0%

0.00

NG
3.6%

5
6
7
8

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

5
6
7
8

4.00
NG

3.6%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

0.0%
100.0%

0.00
4

38

If Ben Had Received Tigers Fairway DNA

Original Skill of Ben Curtis

26.1%
68.8%
5.1%
0.0%
0.0%

G
74.1%

3.79

F
59.1%

3
4
5
6
7
76.5%
23.5%
0.0%
0.0%

G
3.89

92.7%

Tee

4.24

4
5
6
7

NG
4.04

25.9%

4.18

Ben Curtis Inherits Tigers Fairway Accuracy

Tigers Fairway Accuracy

G
74.1%

3.79

26.1%
68.8%
5.1%
0.0%
0.0%

- 0.04 point

70.0%

G
3.89

92.7%

Tee

NG
4.00

3
4
5
6
7

25.9%

4.18

4.24

76.5%
23.5%
0.0%
0.0%

4
5
6
7

39

Or Receiving Rory McIlroys Green Approach DNA

Original Skill of Ben Curtis

26.1%
68.8%
5.1%
0.0%
0.0%

G
74.1%

3.79

F
59.1%

3
4
5
6
7
76.5%
23.5%
0.0%
0.0%

G
3.89

92.7%

Tee

4.24

4
5
6
7

NG
4.04

25.9%

4.18

Ben Curtis Inherits Rorys F-G Accuracy

Rory's
F-G Accuracy

- 0.03 point

G
84.9%

3.79

F
59.1%

3
4
5
6
7
G

3.85

92.7%

Tee

NG
4.01

26.1%
68.8%
5.1%
0.0%
0.0%

15.1%
0.0%

4.18
2

4.24

76.5%
23.5%
0.0%
0.0%

4
5
6
7

40

Then How About Tigers Putting DNA?

Original Skill of Ben Curtis
G
74.1%

3.79

26.1%
68.8%
5.1%
0.0%
0.0%

F
59.1%

3
4
5
6
7
76.5%
23.5%
0.0%
0.0%

G
3.89

92.7%

Tee

4.24

4
5
6
7

NG
4.04

25.9%

4.18

Ben Curtis Inherits Tigers Putting Skill

Tigers
Putting Skill

- 0.05 point

G
74.1%

3.68

32.2%
67.8%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

F
59.1%

3
4
5
6
7
G

3.81

92.7%

Tee
3.99

NG
25.9%

4.18

4.24

76.5%
23.5%
0.0%
0.0%

4
5
6
7

41

Tweaking Bens Skill Category Reveals

Receiving Tigers putting DNA will improve his performance the most.
The decision tree helps figure out which skills to improve on.

42

Rory Par 5s 2012

Green

Fairway

116 (34%)

3 Shots

21 (18%)

3.95 4 Shots

80 (69%)

5 Shots

15 (13%)

51 (15%)

Green

46 (90%)

4.69
Fairway

338 (63%)

NG

4 Shots

16 (35%)

4.65 5 Shots

30 (65%)

5 (10%)

Average: 4.57

Green

5.00
Non Fairway 171 (51%)

Green

109(64%) 4 Shots

64 (59%)

4.41 5 Shots

45 (41%)

4.95
NG

5 5 Shots

62(36%)

Green

5.90
NG

32 (52%) 5 Shots

20 (62.5%)

5.38 6 Shots

12 (37.5%)

26 (42%) Green
6.54

Total

537

Tee

537

Green

4.64
Fairway

16 (8%)

3 Shots

0 (100%)

4.00 4 Shots

16 (100%)

102 (51%)

Green

83 (81%)

4.73
Non-Fairway 199 (37%)

4 Shots

4 (6%)

4 Shots

28 (34%)

4.66 5 Shots
NG

16 (16%)

Average: 4.77

Green

5.38
3 Shots
Non Fairway 81 (40%)

Green

26 (100%) 6 Shots

12 (46%)

6.54 7 Shots

14 (54%)

55 (66%)
16 (100%) 5 Shots

10 (62.5%)

5.38 6 Shots

6 (37.5%)

3 (3%)
54 (67%)

4.97
NG

5 (100%)

5.00

4 Shots

24 (44%)

4.56 5 Shots

30 (56%)

24 (30%)

Green

5.92
NG

16 (67%) 5 Shots

10 (62.5%)

5.38 6 Shots

6 (37.5%)

8 (33%) Green
7.00 NG

0 (0%)
8 (100%) Green
NG

3 Shots 3 (4%)

0 (0%)
8

7 Shots

8 (100%)

43

Rory Par 5s 2013

Green

Fairway

295
(52%)
4.75

46 (16%) 3 Shots
3.95 4 Shots
5 Shots

Fairway 78 (26%) Green

4.59
NG

9 (20%)
32 (70%)
5 (11%)

62 (79%) 4 Shots
4.48 5 Shots
16 (21%) Green
5.00

Non
171
135
Fairway (58%)
Green
(79%)
5.05
4.78

563

Tee 563
4.93

NG

F-G

4 Shots
5 Shots
6 Shots

36 (21%) Green
6.05
NG

Green

Non268
Fairway
(48%)
5.12

12 (4%) 3 Shots
3.00

141
Fairway (53%)
Green
4.99

32 (52%)
30 (48%)
16 5 Shots 16
5.00

48 (36%)
75 (56%)
12 (9%)
23 (64%) 5 Shots 5 (22%)
5.78 6 Shots 18 (78%)
13 (36%) Green
6.54

13 6 Shots 6 (46%)
6.54 7 Shots 7 (54%)

12

84 (60%) 4 Shots
4.74 5 Shots
6 Shots

28 (33%)
50 (60%)
6 (7%)

NG

54 (38%) Green
47 (87%) 5 Shots 35 (74%)
5.49
5.26
6 Shots 12 (26%)

3 Shots

3 (2%)

NG

7 (13%) Green
7.00
NG

Non
115
Fairway (43%)
Green
55 (48%) 4 Shots
5.49
4.64
5 Shots
NG

60 (52%) Green
6.27
NG

0 (0%)

7 (100%) Green
7

7 7 Shots 7
7

20 (36%)
35 (64%)
26 (43%) 5 Shots 20 (77%)
5.23 6 Shots 6 (23%)
34 (57%) Green
6.88
NG

19 (56%) 6 Shots 12 (63%)

6.37 7 Shots 7 (37%)
15 (44%) Green
7.53

15 7 Shots 7 (47%)
7.53 8 Shots 8 (53%)

44

Rory Par 5s Comparison 2012-2013

One Stroke per Round Worse

Worse for All Pars

Most Strokes Lost per Hole: Par 5s
0.3 Strokes per Par 5: Half His Lost Strokes on Two Holes

a Round
Average Par 5 Score: Increased from 4.64 to 4.93
% Fairways: Dropped from 63% to 52%

Average Score from Fairway: Increased from 4.57 to 4.75

Average Score from Missed Fairway: Increased from 4.75

to 5.12!

45

Further Studies

Analyze skills by courses

(difficulty varies by course).

Analyze skills only for Major

Tournaments (Masters, US Open,

The Open,).
Include tournament data from

previous years.
Extend the analysis to par 3, par 5

courses

46

Conclusion
Statistically evaluate players performance in each situation.
Determine which skillset separates one player from another.
Help players improve their performance.

47

Pace of Play Simulations

Go to www.three45golf.org