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Agenda
Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) Expected Utility; Rational Expectations Few Examples Prospect Theory (Kahneman and Tversky) Behavioral Heuristics and Biases in Decision Making Implications for Financial Markets
Market Efficiency
Fama: The market price at any time instant
reflects all available information in the market. Cannot make money using stale information.
Three forms
Weak form: past prices and returns. Semi-strong form: all public information. Strong form: all public AND private information.
Challenges to EMH
Investors are not fully rational. They exhibit biases and use simple heuristics (rules of thumb) in making decisions. Empirical Evidence on investor behavior:
investors fail to diversify. investors trade actively (Odean). Investors may sell winning stocks and hold onto losing stocks (Odean). extrapolative and contrarian forecasts.
An Example
Initial endowment: $300. Consider a choice between:
a sure gain of $100 a 50% chance to gain $200, a 50% chance to gain $0.
Reversal in Choice
Case 1: 72% chose option 1, 28% chose option 2. Case 2: 36% chose option 1, 64% chose option 2. => A reversal in Choice
Problem framed as a gain: decision maker is risk averse. Problem framed as a loss: decision maker is risk seeking.
Allais Paradox
Case 1: consider a choice between:
$1 million with certainty. $5 million with prob 0.1, $1m with prob 0.89 and $0 with prob 0.01
Prospect Theory
Proposed by two psychologists: Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. Gambles are evaluated relative to a reference point. Decision maker analyzes gains and losses differently. Incremental value of a loss is larger than that of a loss.
the hurt of a $1000 loss is more painful than the benefit of a $1000 gain.
Gamblers Fallacy
Investors may apply law of large numbers to small sequences.
Example: fair coin tossing.
THTHTHHHHHH -> P(T) = ?, P(H) = ?.
Which of the 2 sequences is more likely to occur in a fair coin tossing experiment?
HHHHHHTTTTTTHHHHHH HHTHTHHTHTTHTHHTTH
Disposition Effect: sell winners, hold on to the losers. Anchoring and adjustment: can create under-reaction.
Summary
Investor behavior does have an impact on the behavior of financial markets. How much? Not clear! Both social and psychological must be taken into account in explaining the behavior of financial markets. Market anomalies may be widespread. Behavioral Finance: does not replace but complements traditional models in Finance.