Agriculture must continue to satisfy the demands of a complex global market

Rising Cereal Demand (MMT) Growing World Population Transition Nations Transition (B) Nations World population Developed Nations Developed Nations 3000 9 continues to expand Developing Nations Developing Nations
8
7 6 5

4 3 2
1

Per capita food 2000 consumption 1500 continues to rise Consumers continue to 500 demand improved taste, convenience, 1981 2030 nutrition and health
1000

2500

1981

1999

2015

1999

2015

2030

FOOD OUTLOOK 2020

World demand for cereals and Meat million metric tonnes 1974 Developed countries Developing countries 664 560 1997 725 1118 2020 822 1675

Investments in food security US $578.90 billion

Irrigation Rural Roads Education Clean water National Agricultural Research

174.60 120.30 75.90 86.50 121.70

Facts on nutrition
Over all number of malnourished children is expected to continue its gradual decrease for 166 million in 1997 to 132 million in 2020 Chinas malnourished children will fall by half India will experience slow improvement and will remain 3rd of all malnourished children in the developing world Sub-Saharan Africa is in perilous situation. The malnourished is expected to increase by 6 million for by 18% compared with 1997. The region will remain hot spot of hunger and malnutrition for years to come
IFPRI , 2004

WHY MICRONUTRIENT DEFICIENCY

Nutrition was low priority in crop breeding for improvement of varieties

Micronutrient density in rice
Iron Zinc
PPM

Range Average green revolution variety IR68144

724 12 21

1658 22 34

Khush , 2003

WHY MICRONUTRIENT DEFICIENCY

Food Availability
Maping Index Below 5.0 Mapping Typology 1. Extremely Low States Gujarat

5.0-6.5
6.5-8.5 8.5-10.0

2. Very Low
3. Low 4. Moderate

RJ, BH
MH,HY,KN,WB UP,HP,AS,TN,OR,AP

Above 10.00
Indicators

5. High

KL,MP,PJ

Deficit of food production over consumption Instability in cereal production Environmental Sustainability Index Number of people affected by disasters Percentage of area affected by drought in the area

WHY MICRONUTRIENT DEFICIENCY

Food Access
Maping Index 0- 5.5 5.5-7.8 7.8-9.0 9.0-11.2 11.2-12.8 Indicators
Average per consumer unit per day calorie intake (Kcal) of the lowest deciles Percentage of population consuming less than 1890 Kcal per consumer unit per day. Percentage of population below the poverty line

Mapping Typology 1. Extremely Low 2. Very Low 3. Low 4. Moderate 5. High

States BH MP,TN,MH,OR,WB GJ,UP,AP,KL KN,AS,RJ,HY,PJ HP

Percentage of persons in labour households to the total population

Rural Infrastructure Index Juvenile sex ratio (Females per thousand males in 0-9 years) Percentage of literate females to total female population

Percentage of SC/ST population to total population

Indicators Deficit of food production over consumption Instability in cereal production Environmental Sustainability Index Number of people affected by disasters Percentage of area affected by drought in the area

Food insecurity Atlas 2002

Traditional Technology
Past success developing countries

Science

and Technology underpinned the economic & social gains in countries of South specially ASIA through green revolution(agriculture),white revolution ( milk production ) blue revolution ( marine products) resulted in by increased calorie availability per person 24 percent

the

key factors are Scientific discoveries, government policies with respect to credit and farm inputs irrigation , public and private participation and international community initiatives

Increased

agricultural productivity, rapid industrial growth and expansion of non farm rural economy contributed to almost tripling of per capita GDP

Strategies

Safety

Genetic engineering

Safety

Molecular marker assisted breeding

Tissue culture

All right

Fine

Biological agents

Explain

Stages in Research Development and Commercialization of Transgenic Plants

Discovery
BASIC RESEARCH APPLIED RESEARCH

Development Biosafety
DEVELOPM ENT VERIFICATION AND VALIDATION
BREEDING LINE DEVELOPMENT

Commercialization
FIELD TRIALS VARIETAL REGISTRA TION/CERT IFICATION MARKETTI NG

Public acceptance
CULTIVATION AND PROCESSING

Rs yrs 0
Trait Gene

30m

30m

30m

3
Limited field trials Toxicity and allergenicity and environmental impact

5
Large scale field trials with all India coordination ICAR/SAUs

7
breeders-

20m 10
Farmers Consumers

Variety release

Tissue culture Gene delivery

foundation-

Transgenics
Molecular analysis Seed set and lab testing Green house testing

certification of seeds

What Happened and Why Successful Crops

% of Acreage Planted to GE Varieties In U.S. in 2003

Thinking in terms stakeholders than stock holders

Project affected people
Individual and families near the project Indigenous groups and their leaders

Public sector
Local state & National governments Multinational & bilateral development institutions

Private sector
KEY STAKEHOLDERS
Project financiers Local business Industry associations

Advocacy Groups
Local and National grass roots NGOs Religious groups University and research centers

concerns
The potential risk to health of human beings, animals, and environment

social, political and

economic relationships

fundamental
philosophical, religious or metaphysical value of individuals or groups

Environment
Anti-GM Loss of biodiversity Cross-pollination Emergence of superweeds and superbugs Potential increase in use of herbicides
*Opinions are generalized, and not all opponents or proponents may hold all of these views.

Pro-GM Need to increase yields to feed growing population Possibility of reducing need for pesticides, fertilizers Grow more food on same amount of land

Human Health
Anti-GM Fear of unknown allergens Spread of antibiotic resistance Inadequate regulation of new products Pro-GM

Greater regulations than other foods Potential benefits to nutrition

golden rice enhanced protein content in corn soybean oil with less saturated fat

Food Security
Pro-GM Anti-GM Need redistribution, Modified seeds will not just more allow farmers to Farmers will not be grow more to feed able to afford their family and to expensive seed, sell, reducing the technology fees need for food aid Developing countries need not have to eat Public-private cooperation can the food others transfer technology reject

Socio-economic concerns
Corporations benefit, not those in need Products needed in developing countries are not being developed because the market is not profitable It is wrong to patent life

Anti-GM

Pro-GM Patents needed because new strains are intellectual property Publicly funded research can benefit the public good

Parameters to transgenics useful in effectiveness of strategies Technology transcending

Consumer/farmers views Time Cost -benefit Investment Options and alternatives Precision Safety IPR

expertise
Success criteria Socio-economic factors

Integration with existing strategies

Product formulation Product Delivery systems

Activities of different Players

Research and Development Public Regulatory development Technology Transfer Marketing Government Government Joint Efforts

WHAT ARE PUBLIC CONCERNS

The term genetically engineered/ manipulated/modified is uncomfortable The technology is new and unfamiliar The technology is difficult to understand Whether GMOs safe to environment

to Consumption
What are the benefits from this change

PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF RISK Negative Campaigns.

Recent regulatory failure.

Communication gap by proponents.

NEGATIVE CAMPAIGNS

Are not being seriously confronted. Communication between less informed to ignorant perpetuates aberrant meanings. Propagandists communicate better than proponents. Media encourages sensational negative views.

TYPICAL CASE
Negative Campaigner FACT Transgenics do not increase yield. GMO not suited for sustainable agriculture. Encourage monopoly Pollens escape and weeds benefit. Not True False

Insect killing genes destroy beneficial insects also. False Not related to BT False

Approvals for regulated field trial but in practice False commercially growned. (Monitoring)

REGULATORY FAILURES Incidents shaking public confidence:

Dropsy from contaminated Mustard Oil.
Blood screening failure for HIV. Spurious seed manufacturers. Spurious pesticides/fertilisers. [None involve Biotechnology but all involve major regulatory failure]

PUBLIC OPINION IS BASED ON PERCEPTIONS OF REALITY RATHER THAN ON REALITY ITSELF

SURVEY RESULTS ON FOOD SAFETY- EXAMPLE Do you fear that branded milk may be adulterated and unsafe to drink? Yes 60% No 13% Cant say 27% What is your regular source of milk supply? DMS 12% Mother Dairy 38%

Milkman/Private Dairy 50% (Pasteurization ?)

Delhiities Say Food adulteration is rampant & the law against it remains only on paper 93% Checking, testing and enforcement machinery must be revamped and strengthened 96% Awareness must be built up among public so that they are also vigilant. 98%
Telephonic poll conducted by TNS-MODE among 249 Delhiities on May 31 to June 2.

SYSTEM OF VARIETY DEVELOPMENT AND RELEASE

Public Sector Varietys Release DEVELOPMENT & TESTING

Coordinated Variety Release Committee

State variety release committee.

Seed Production

Notification by sub-committee on crop standards, release and notification.

Breeder

Foundation

Certified Seed

Marketing

SYSTEM OF VARIETY DEVELOPMENT AND RELEASE Private Sector Varietys Release

i) Testing of public varietys release

Certification

Seed production

Marketing

ii) Development and Testing of private sector developed varieties

Seed Production ..

[NO SYSTEM OF RELEASE AND NOTIFICATION THROUGH PUBLIC SECTOR CHANNELS]

Marketing

PVP

PBR

SYSTEM OF TRANSGENICS RELEASE

CHECKS AND COUNTER CHECKS

QUARANTINE

FOOD SAFETY

ENVIRONMENT SAFETY

DBT

IBSC -- RCGM -- GEAC

REGULATED FIELD TRIALS DATA ANALYSIS, LOCATION TRIALS

NBPGR ICAR

SEED REGISTRATION

LABELLING

FATE OF ILLEGAL GMO TRAFFICKING

SMUGGLING GMOs IS CRIME

MOEF Government of India Quarantine ?

DBT

COMPANY A

Government of Gujarat

State Government Seed act

A TYPICAL CASE OF STAKEHOLDERDS INTERACTION - SHAPING THE FUTURE OF TRANSGENICS

Media Politicians Central government: reported regularly and views of all without wrong interpretations wanted protection of farmer interests and punishment of guilty as per Law want to enforce EPA Act through sate government as per biosafety guidelines

Farmers Public general: Scientists :

request to protect their investment and enforce law at the same time
getting information and are more concerned for the future want to set an example by punishing the guilty to set an example

Consensus is building on to protect farmers interest, punish guilty and ensure maximum safety to environment with relatively low risk

Private character of biotechnology

A CONCERN
In the late 1970s the top 20 pharmaceutical companies collectively had about 5 percent of the global pharmaceutical market. If you look at it today, they have over 40 percent of the global pharmaceutical market. We didnt pay much attention to veterinary medicines 20 years ago, but today the top 10 have about 60 percent of the global market in veterinary medicines

Private character of biotechnology A CONCERN

In 1979 there were 7000 public and private seed institution.s. Not even one company occupied significant percentage of global commercial seed market. Today 10 companies control in excess of 1/3 of global commercial seed market.
In the late 1970s, there were 65 companies that were inventing and marketing crop chemicals-- herbicides, insecticides, nematicides and so on . Now were down to nine companies that make up about 91 percent of the global market.

Agriculture biotechnology Market Shares 1999

Syngenta 5% BASF 5% Aventis 7% Du Pont 3%

Monsanto 80%

NOT ONLY GEPS ?

LEHAR

BHUJIA

WTO
TRIPS

CODEX

WIPRO

CBD

DESCRIPTION OF TRADITIONAL FARMER

Illiterate Small and Marginal Subsistence farming No Money for inputs Low risk bearing ability

DESCRIPTION OF MODERN FARMER

Politically proactive Moderately literate -- 1951 (18%), 1991(33-75%) Access to TV, phone and modern transport Awareness level Moderately conscious

Brand Preferences of Consumer Goods Reflect Public Acceptance for New Products
Product Category
Blues Biscuits Hair wash powder Home insecticides Tea Coconut oil Washing cakes & bars Iodised salt Coffee Edible oil

% Branded
64 62 54 54 53 50 49 48 35 6

% Unbrande d & Local

36 38 46 46 47 50 51 52 55 94

CHANGING RURAL LIFESTYLE

Spending on Consumables excluding grains PENETRATION OF

Rs. 202-441/- PM
(Average Rs. 270/- PM)

Necessary products
(Toilet soaps,Washing cake, Tea) Share of total consumption
(Toilet soap, Washing cakes, Blades)

60-91%

50%

Creams, Shampoo, Powder

20-54%

BRAND PREFERENCES
Product Category
Blues Biscuits Hair wash powder Home insecticides Tea Coconut oil Washing cakes & bars Iodised salt Coffee Edible oil

% Branded
64 62 54 54 53 50 49 48 35 6

% Unbrande d & Local

36 38 46 46 47 50 51 52 55 94

CONTRASTING AGRICULTURE SCENARIO USA No of farm families Average size of farm Share in workforce Contribution to GDP 0.9m 200 Ha <2% 1.7% INDIA 105M < 2ha >64% 26%

Farmers are politically proactive, audio visual literate and eager to adopt new biotechnologies

I DO NOT

UNDERSTAND WHY

YOU ARE ALL FIGHTING . WE HAVE TRUST IN OUR SCIENTISTS AND LEARNED PEOPLE . WHEN YOU CAN ARRANGE MODERN DANGEROUS ARMS TO SOLDIERS, WHY CAN NOT YOU PROVIDE MODERN TOOL AND TECHNIQUES TO FARMERS TO INCRASE PRODUCTIVITY . PLEASE DO NOT DELAY. WE CAN DECIDE THE FATE OF TECHNOLOGY IN NO TIME

IMPACT OF BT COTTON IN CHINA

Estimated area : 1997 1998 1999 4491000 HA 4459000 HA

3736000 HA 1- 85.6

Percentage surveyed Farmers:

Control plants Boll worm resistant and susceptible

Bt varieties

CAAS (Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences) and Monsanto- DPL (MDP) varieties Bt
3426-3495

Yield : seed cotton

Mean Kg/Ha

Non Bt
2841-3700

St deviation 550-585

COST OF SEED COTTON PRODUCTION ( RMB )

5073
Maxim un

14288 6925

1996 960
4531

NonBt RMB /Kg 3.99-4.45

11273

Minim um

258 306

5525 10701

Maxim um

255 547
3772

5433

5911

BT
9161 3698

Minim um

131 359

Total Others Labour Pesticide seed

RMB /Kg 2.68-3.19

Pesticide sprays reduced

to 3- 12 from 30 or 15000 tons

DISTRIBUTION OF THE BENEFITS

Smaller farmers adoption was about the same as larger farmers

Higher income groups adopted more completely than lower income groups
Smaller farms and farms which had lower income consistently obtained larger increases in net income than larger farmers and those with higher incomes Farmers benefited by $ 45 to 69.6 million ( 82.5 to 87% )

Seed companies benefited by gross revenue of $ 5-9.6 million

Monsanto and Delta Pine Land profitted by less than 6 percent of the income earned by farmers by adopting their Bt cotton

Performance of Bt MECH-162, non-Bt MECH-162, CC under IPM and CC without IPM

Treatment Bt MECH-162 Area (ha) 5.76 IPM non-Bt MECH-162 1.44 CC 18.70 Non-IPM CC 7.28

Seed cotton
Yield (q/ha)8* Yield of pigeonpea (q/ha)** Returns (Rs/ha) Cost of production, including protecton (Rs/ha)

12.375a

9.620b

7.060c

3.704d

nil

nil

2.47

1.47

28462 12231

22126 9693

20420 9913

11018 10074

New returns (Rs/ha)

B:C ratio

16231
2.327

12433
2.283

10507
2.060

944
1.094

Means with at least one letter common are not significantly different. *Market rate Rs.2300 per q seed cotton.

** Market rate Rs.1700 per q.

Population of sucking pests, bollworms and natural enemies Mean number of pests/natural enemies over the season
IPM
Insect pest Sucking pests* Whiteflies Jassids Thrips Aphids Bollworms** American bollworm eggs American bollworm larvae Spotted bollworm larvae Natural enemies ** Green lacewign eggs Ladybird beetle adults 31-49 31-49 0.37 1.33 0.37 1.23 0.61b 2.06b 0.26c 0.69c 31-49 31-49 31-49 0.12 0.03 0.00 0.12 0.06b 0.01 0.08b 0.05b 0.03b 0.17c 0.09c 0.06c 30-42 30-42 30-42 30-42 0.15 0.07 4.88 3.96 0.15 0.07 4.56 3.50 0.24b 0.14b 5.98b 20.56b 0.29b 1.97c 12.62c 44.34c Standard week# Bt MECH-162 Non- Bt MECH-162 CC

Non-IPM
CC

Means with at least one letter common are not significantly different. # Standard week 30 corresponds to 23-29 July. 8 Number of insects/three leaves, ** Number of insects/plant.

WHY COMMUNICATE
People who have knowledge tend to accept. People who lack knowledge reject. Public determines commercial success.

Perception being based on misunderstood or distorted data.

That which is not understood is feared, and that which is feared is opposed

The public should be viewed as a partner and a level of trust needs to be created. Developing this style will be a major challenge for business leaders as well as university scientists and government regulators.
(NELKIN, 1997)

PROPONENTS OF TECHNOLOGY SHOULD START COMMUNICATING EFFECTIVELY THAN OPPONENTS.