• Identi fy the di ff erence s be tween

Ana lyt ica l Deci sion Ma ki ng and Int uit ive

Dec isi on M aking
• Descri be b asic desi gn and deli very
requi reme nt s for T acti cal D ec isi on Games
(T DGS )
• Demo nst ra te how Sa nd T abl e Ex erci ses
(ST EX ) ca n b e us ed t o d eliv er T DGS
How We Decide
 Observ ati on #1
Decis ion ma kin g s ki lls ar e
dev eloped throug h p ra cti ce
 Observ ati on #2
The l owe r th e ech elon o f
co mma nd the si mpl er, fa ster,
mor e di rect a nd a cc elera te d
the de cisi on pr ocess
 Obser vati on #3
The a bi lity to ra pi dl y
dev elop so lutions to new
pr obl ems i s ba sed o n
pa tte rn r ecog niti on
• Intuit ive Dec is ion Ma king (reactive )
Pa ttern rec ogni ti on ba sed on
previo us expe rien ce
• Analyt ical De cisio n M aki ng (pla nn ed)
Cal culat ed selec ti on of
alt ernatives
• Rely on experienc e to recognize
the ess enc e of a gi ve n sit uat ion or
pro blem
• Uti li ze pat tern re cognit io n fr om
previo us actio ns, obs erva ti ons , a nd
tra ining to de ve lop the solut io n
• Best way to impr ov e de cisi on
mak ing is to imp rove pat tern
rec ogni ti on, the be st way to
impr ove pat tern r ecognit io n is to
impr ove. . .
Situ ation A wa ren ess
• Rare ly i s the re o nly “ on e
ri gh t” an swer
• “A go od pl an ex ecu ted n ow i s
better tha n the per fect pl an
ex ecu ted to o l ate”
• Ide nt if y pos sibl e opti ons
• Analyze al l opti ons accor ding to a
set cri teri a
• Cal culat e a va lue for all crit eria of
each opt ion
• Choo se the opt ion wit h highe st
tot al crit eria val ues
 In Th eo ry . . . . .
Th e h igh est v al ue opti on
wil l pr ovi de the m ost
opti ma l sol uti on
 In Rea lity . . . . .
• The en vi ronme nt i s cons tantl y
ch an ging a nd informati on ca n
quickl y bec ome ou td ated
• Lac k of tim e ca n ha mpe r th e
abi lity to co nduc t an a cc ur ate
an al ysi s
• Both ana lyt ica l a nd int uit ive dec isi on
ma kin g ar e us ed on th e fi regroun d
• Fir efig ht ers a t t he t actical l eve l r ely
pr ima ril y on intu it ive d ec isi on ma ki ng
• Decis ion ma king s kil ls can be imp rove d
wi th p ra ctice
 So wh y spen d t ime
pl ay ing g ames when
ther e is wo rk t o d o . . .
TD GS and STE X pr ovide a sim ple,
adapt able , and repeat abl e metho d
of cha llenging a fire fight er to
mak e de cisi ons in situa ti ons the y
wil l fac e on the fir egro und
• Practice making decisions in an
operational context
• Practice communicating those decisions in
the form of briefings or instructions
• Sit in the “hot seat” and build pattern
recognitions skills
• Facilitator provides information or a
briefing describing a scenario
• Student plays the role of a leader in a
dilemma that requires a decision
• Requires interactive two-way
communication between role players
• Utilizes a 3-D terrain model to help
visually develop and present a TDGS
• Ideally suited for group exercises
• Low tech simulation method
• Suspend disbelief
• Induce stress
• Create dilemmas
• Observe behaviors
Designing
TDG S
• Put participants in role-play situations
• Provide limited information
• Apply time constraints
• Face a dilemma
• Conduct an After Action Review (AAR)
• Enforce a time limit so players feel some
of the stress that would be present in a
real fireground situation
• Require decisions be communicated in the
the form of real time instructions
• There are no “School Solutions”
• Takes place prior to designing a TDGS
• Facilitator identifies the goal of the TDGS
It can be a very specific objective:
“Practice standard report on conditions
procedure with dispatch”
Or it can be a more comprehensive:
“Let’s work on initial attack
operations”
• Start with a problem, not a solution
• Start general, then get specific
• Create uncertainty
• Create time pressure
• Create competing priorities
• Create interaction between resources or
subordinates
 •Build to a single dilemma that
requires an immediate decision
OR
•Identify multiple decision points and
script a dynamic simulation
(Decision Tree)
 Scenario

Direct Attack Indirect Attack

Air support No Air support Structure Protection Highway closure

Retardant Helicopter Mechanical Failure Establish Separate Organization

 Deliveri ng
TDGS
us ing S andtables
“Tell me and I will fo rget, Sho w
me and I may re member, bu t
invo lve me a nd I wil l
un ders tand”
– Chine se pro ve rb
• Enthusiastic • Able to summarize
lessons
• Tactically knowledgeable
• Critiques without being
• Thinks quickly on feet
critical
• Keeps it moving
• Involves all players
• Respectful - identify good ideas
• Confrontational - keep the pressure on
Try to achieve a balance!
• Brief group with all players assuming
they are the designated leader
• Provide a short time for players to
develop their decision and instructions
• Select a player to issue instructions
verbally as they would on the fireground
• Have more than one player take the hot
seat and issue instructions
• Paint a good picture of the environment in
the briefing
• Control the tempo with time tags and
piece movement
• Murphy invented TDGS…insert
uncertainty and adversity into the game
with pre-planned inputs
• Utilize IRPG and other SOPs
• Always AAR…focus on decision making
• As the facilitator, you should not be doing
most of the talking
• Ask the players to think aloud – describe
situational awareness, how decision was
made, etc
• Avoid leading questions, ask open-ended
questions
• General form: Asking about X, where X is a specific subject and
where there is more than one “right way” to answer.
• Examples: HOW would you have handled the situation?
• WHY is it important to _________?
• WHY NOT just simplify things and only __________?
• WHAT are some experiences you’ve had in the past that are
similar to this situation?
• WHAT would you do IF _________?
• Conce ntr ate on decis ion mak ing , NOT
on ta cti cs
• St ick wi th t he t ra ini ng obje ct ives
• Emph asi ze effecti ve co mmuni cati on
• Uti lize st an da rd l ocal u nit id ent if iers
• Uti lize IPRG, SOP s, and oth er job a id s
• Cr eate a l evel of p osit ive st ress
• Cond uct an A fter Acti on Rev iew
• Briefing
• After Action Review
• Planning
• Training (TDGS, Topo Interp, etc)
• Full scale simulations