DECISION MAKING: TESTING HYPOTHESIS

HYPOTHESIS TESTING One of the principal objectives of research is comparison: How does one group differ from another? This typical question can be handled by the primary tools of classical statistical inference estimation and hypothesis testing. The unknown characteristic, or parameter, of a population is usually estimated from a statistic computed from sample data.

Ordinarily, a researcher is interested in estimating the mean and the standard deviation of some characteristic of the population.

HYPOTHESIS TESTING The purpose of statistical inference is to reach conclusions from sample data and to support the conclusions with probability statements. With such information, a researcher will be able to decide whether an observed effect is real or is due to chance.

DEFINITIONS
Hypothesis a statement of belief used in the evaluation of population values In statistics, a hypothesis is a claim or statement about a property of a population.

HYPOTHESIS TESTING
Examples of Hypotheses that will be tested:

1.) Medical researchers claim that the mean body temperature of healthy adults is not equal to 98.6oF (a claim about a population mean). 2.) Drivers who use cell phones have car crash rate that is greater than the 13% rate for those who do not use cell phones (a claim about a population proportion) 3.) When new equipment is used to manufacture aircraft altimeters, the variation in the errors is reduced so that the readings are more consistent (a claim about a population variance)

Null Hypothesis (Ho) a claim that there is no significant difference between or among population means, variances, proportions, etc. Alternative Hypothesis (H1) a claim that the difference between or among population means, variances, proportion, etc. is not equal or a claim that there is a difference between or among a population means, variances, proportions, etc. Sometimes the alternative hypothesis is referred to as the research hypothesis.

Fundamentals of Hypothesis Testing Components of a Formal Hypothesis Test

Null Hypothesis (denoted by Ho) is a statement about a value of a population parameter (such as the mean), and it must contain the condition of equality and must be written with the symbol =, , or .
Alternative Hypothesis / Research Hypothesis (denoted by H1) is the statement that must be true if the null hypothesis is false and it must be written with the symbol , < or >.

Null and Alternative Hypothesis

QUESTION: What does it really mean when researchers test hypothesis or perform tests of significance? ANSWER: We are trying to find out if two (or more) things are the same or if they are different. What actually are null and alternative hypotheses? The null hypothesis is that there is no difference between or among population means, variances or proportions. For now, remember that the key part of the definition is no difference. The alternative hypothesis (or research hypothesis) specifies that there is a difference between or among population means, variances or proportions. The alternative hypothesis or research hypothesis is what the researcher expects to find. This is why the research, and hence the statistical analysis, is being done.

Null Hypothesis (Ho) Europeans are no more or less obedient to authority than Americans Non-Christians have the same suicide rate as Christians

Alternative Hypothesis (H1) (Research Hypothesis) Europeans differ from Americans with respect to obedience to authority Non-Christians have different suicide rate as Christians

Conservative and liberal Liberal parents differ from parents discipline their children conservative parents with respect to permissive childto the same extent rearing methods

Alternative Hypothesis (H1) (Non-directional) Two-tailed Test Europeans differ from Americans with respect to obedience to authority Non-Christians have different suicide rate as Christians

Liberal parents differ from conservative parents with respect to permissive childrearing methods

Alternative Hypothesis (H1) (Directional) One-tailed Test Europeans have higher/lower respect to obedience to authority than Americans Non-Christians have higher/lower suicide rate than Christians Liberal parents have less/more permissive child-rearing methods than conservative parents

One-Tailed Versus Two-Tailed Tests A one-tailed test is indicated for questions like:

Is a new drug superior to a standard drug? Does the air pollution level exceed safe limits? Has the death rate been reduced for those who quit smoking?
A two-tailed test is indicated for questions like: Is there a difference between cholesterol levels of men and women? Does the mean age of a group of volunteers differ from that of the general population? Notice the difference in the way these questions are worded. In a potential one-tailed test, you will see words like exceed, reduced, higher, lower, more, less, and better

Test Statistic is a value computed from the sample data that is used in making the decision about the rejection of the null hypothesis. The test statistic converts the sample statistic to a score with the assumption that the null hypothesis is true. Some Statistical Tools used in Test Statistic are: Z test for proportion t test for two means Correlated t test F Test (ANOVA) Chi-Square Test Pearsons Correlation Test

Critical Region is the set of all values of the test statistic that cause us to reject the null hypothesis. The critical region is the region on the far end of the distribution. If only one end of the distribution, commonly termed the tail, is involved, the region is referred to as one-tailed test; if both ends are involved, the region is known as two-tailed test. When the computed test statistic (z, t, F, 2, etc.) falls in the critical region, reject the null hypothesis.

The critical region is sometimes called the rejection region.

The probability that a test statistic falls in the critical region is denoted by .

Significance Level the level that corresponds to the area in the critical region. When a test statistic falls in this area, the result is referred to as significant at the level. The significance level (denoted by ) is the probability that the test statistic will fall in the critical region when the null hypothesis is actually true. If the test statistic falls in the critical region, we will reject the null hypothesis, so is the probability of making the mistake of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true. Common choices for are 0.05 (5%), 0.01 (1%), and 0.10 (10%).

Critical Value The number that divides the distribution (normal or skewed) into the region where the null hypothesis will be rejected and the region where the null hypothesis will fail to be rejected.
A critical value is any value that separates the critical region (where we reject the null hypothesis) from the values of the test statistic that do not lead to rejection of the null hypothesis.

The critical values depend on the nature of the null hypothesis, the relevant sampling distribution, and the significance level .

Two-Tailed Test (Non-Directional Test)

One-Tailed Versus Two-Tailed Tests In testing statistical hypotheses, you must always ask a key question: Am I interested in the deviation of one population mean from another population mean in one or both directions? The answer is usually implicit in the way Ho and H1 are stated. If you are interested in determining whether the mean of one data is significantly different from the mean of the other data, you should perform a two-tailed test, because the difference could either be negative or positive. If you are interested in whether the mean of one data is significantly larger or smaller than the other mean data, you should perform a one-tailed test.

One-Tailed Test (Directional Lower Critical Value)

One-Tailed Test (Directional Upper Critical Value)

Two-Tailed and One-Tailed (Left or Right) Tests

The tails in a distribution are the extreme regions bounded by critical values. Some hypothesis tests are two-tailed and some are one-tailed whether right-tailed or left-tailed. Two-tailed test: The critical region is in the two extreme regions (tails) under the curve.

Sign used in: Ho: = H1:

Right-tailed test: The critical region is in the extreme right region (tail) under the curve.

Left-tailed test:

The critical region is in the extreme left region (tail) under the curve.

Conclusions in Hypothesis Testing

The original claim sometimes becomes the null hypothesis and at other times becomes the alternative hypothesis. The standard procedure of hypothesis testing requires that always test the null hypothesis and that initial conclusion will always be one of the following:

Reject the null hypothesis Fail to reject the null hypothesis or do not reject the null hypothesis