Prof.

Ijaz Khan Department of International Relations University of Peshawar

 The study looks at the regional security scenario with

the help of Barry Buzans Regional Security Complex Theory with a comprehensive understanding of the concept of security It takes Iran, India, Afghanistan and Pakistan as the RSC for the purpose

Regional Security Complex

RSC is group of states whose primary security concerns link

together sufficiently closely that their national securities cannot realistically be considered apart from one another. The theory specifies what to look for at four levels of analysis and how to interrelate these. The four levels are: 1. The domestic vulnerability of the States of the region under study. 2. State-to-state relations 3. The region's interaction with neighboring regions 4. The role of global powers in the region (the interplay between the global and regional security structures).

The domestic vulnerability of the States of the region under study.

Pakistan Governance Extremism Terrorism Ethno Linguistic Issues Identity Economy

Economy Generally Capital Flight Energy Uneven Ddistribution of resources/Wealth - Disparity between classes and regions

The domestic vulnerability - - - - .

India Governance Secularism under challenge Secessionism Economy

Generally doing well Distribution of resources / economic progess poses serious challenges

The domestic vulnerability

Iran Economy Mainly Oil based have enough capital though facing some economic crunch due to US imposed sanctions Political Tensions Polarization between conservative ruling clergy and reformers Secessionism Baloch and Kurd

The domestic vulnerability

Afghanistan Insurgency State Building Economy

State-to-State Relations
Pak India adversarial relations impact Pak Afghan

Relations and India Afghan Relations in which Iran also enters for its own competitive relations with Pakistan inside Afghanistan. The Non state Challenge Cross border Terrorism accusations and counter accusations Pakistan India Afghanistan Iran Territorial claims Afghanistan Pakistan Pakistan India Pipelines Economics Trade - Routes

Region's Interaction with Neighboring Regions

Through Iran, the Iran Saudi conflict enters the region

Shia Sunni/Wahabi issues - Extremism Funding Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States quite strong players of the domestic & state to state relations of the region under study especially Pakistan and also Afghanistan Pakistan in order to balance India stresses its religious based connection with Middle Eastern States and Central Asia Energy Iran, India and Pakistan competes and cooperates in Central Asia

Role of Global Powers in the Region

Cold War Legacy US and Soviet Union Pakistan and

India China in Pak India relations Post cold War US views India as Strategic Partner US gradual movement away from Pakistan towards India Russia though a little opening to Pakistan but continues its Soviet era relations with India 9/11 brings Pakistan back in US policy calculations brings NATO / US troops to the region Russia, USA and China competes & suspects each other but also cooperates and tolerates each other specially on Terrorism A serious worry, even if remote the chance of Nuclear Weapons going into the hands of Terrorists

Concluding Remarks
Either continued State Erosion and further blurring of inter

and intra state conflicts, increased non state terrorism and power state erosion a Security Nightmare keeping in mind the presence of Nuclear Weapons

OR
A changed process of democratic stability leading to

changes security understanding and perceptions increased regional economic integration and people to people contacts Moving out of Interstate conflict where it cannot be resolved