Presentation on Climate Change Impact Assessment & Adaptation Under Uncertainty

Factors that can shape climate are called climate forcing or forcing mechanisms. These include processes such as variations in solar radiation, variations in the Earth's orbit, mountain-building and continental drift and changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. There are a variety of climate change feedbacks that can either amplify or diminish the initial forcing.

Climate change Forcing Mechanisms

Climate Forcing Mechanisms

Internal Forcing Mechanisms
Thermohaline Circulation Life

External Forcing Mechanisms

Orbital Variation Solar Output Magnetic Field Strength Volcanism Plate Tectonics Human Influences

Thermohaline Circulation

Life affecting Climate

Orbital variations

Solar Output

Human influences

Human influences

Assessment of Climate Change Impact

Intensified and More Frequent Weather Events

Rising Sea Levels Water Shortages and Threats to Food Security Temperature Changes Disease and Other Health Effects Air Quality Disruption of the Ecosystem Habitat Destruction and Species Extinction Impacts on Transportation Society Impacts Energy Impacts

Changes (average and extremes) in temperature Drought Wind patterns Food production Ecosystem Health

Temperature Changes

Glaciers Coral reefs Mangroves Tropical forests polar and alpine ecosystems

According to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, in the last several decades of the twentieth century, about 20 percent of the worlds coral reefs were lost, and an additional 20 percent were degraded.

Disruption of the Ecosystem

Climate Change Adaptation under Uncertainty

Agriculture and Food Supply

Breed crop varieties that are more tolerant of heat, drought, and water logging from heavy rainfall or flooding. Protect livestock from higher summer temperatures by providing more shade and improving air flow in barns.

Coasts
Promote shore protection techniques and open space preserves that allow beaches and coastal wetlands to gradually move inland as sea level rises. Identify and improve evacuation routes and evacuation plans for low-lying areas, to prepare for increased storm surge and flooding.

Patterns of Some Adaptation

Ecosystems

Protect and increase migration corridors to allow species to migrate as the climate changes. Promote land and wildlife management practices that enhance ecosystem resilience.

Energy

Increase energy efficiency to help offset increases in energy consumption. Harden energy production facilities to withstand increased flood, wind, lightning, and other stormrelated stresses.

Patterns of Some Adaptation

Human Health

Implement early warning systems and emergency response plans to prepare for changes in the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme weather events. Plant trees and expand green spaces in urban settings to moderate heat increases.

Water Resources

Improve water use efficiency and build additional water storage capacity. Protect and restore stream and river banks to ensure good water quality and safe guard water quantity.

Patterns of Some Adaptation

We have to develop a framework for valuing adaptation that has the following aspects:
the the

valuation of impacts thus estimating values at risk

evaluation of different adaptation options and strategies based on cost

the

valuation of benefits expressed as a combination of the benefits of avoided damages

a

range of institutional values such as equity, justice, sustainability and profit.

Thank You