ELECTION STRATEGY AND ETHNIC POLITICS IN SINGAPORE

Singapore: Overview
Unitary multiparty republic with a west minister system of unicameral parliamentary government. 4th leading financial hub 2nd densest sovereign state Multicultural and Multiracial Numerically dominated by immigrant ethnic groups Young population

Singapore: Overview
President- Tony Tan Keng Yam Prime Minister- Lee Hsien Loong Speaker of Parliament- Halimah Yacob Chief Justice- Sundaresh Menon

Singapore: Demographic

Demographics
Age structure [2012 estimate]
0-14 years: 14% (M 382,537/F 364,542) 15-24 years: 18.6% (M 488,785/F 504,717) 25-54 years: 50% (M 1,309,014/F 1,369,912)

Literacy (2000 census)

- definition: age 15 and over can read and write total population: 92.5% male: 96.6% female: 88.6%

55-64 years: 9.7% (M 259,370/F 259,222) 65 years and over: 7.8% (M 187,448/F 227,947)

Demographics
Ethnic groups (2000 census )
Chinese 76.8% Malay 13.9% Indian 7.9% other 1.4%

Religions (2000 census)

Buddhist 42.5% Muslim 14.9% Taoist 8.5% Hindu 4% Catholic 4.8% other Christian 9.8% other 0.7% none 14.8%

Demographics

Ethnic struggle and Socio-ethnic cleavages

Singapore was filled with impoverished immigrants from China, India

and Malaysia during the 50s due to unrestricted immigration policies

Rising Chinese unification polarized the multiracial society Legacy of British planning divided the society.

Ethnic struggle and Socio-ethnic cleavages

Chinese- core, Malays- western and eastern fringes and India- small scattered groupings

Racial riots between Chinese and Malays 1950, 1964 [36 killed] and 1969
Spill over of Sino-Malay riots to Malaysian General Elections riot 1969 [196 killed] Government excluded Malays from compulsory military conscription *10 years+ and Malays are excepted from high ranking military institutions

Ethnic struggle and Socio-ethnic cleavages

Adopted Lijparts consociationalist model , recognizing special position through the bumiputra [son of the soil] Article 153 of the Malay Constitution safeguarded by the Yand diPertuan Agong [Paramount ruler]

ELECTIONS
Parliamentary elections
Formerly called Legislative Assembly Term is every 5 years Unicameral Members of Parliament (MPs) who are elected, as well as Nonconstituency Members of Parliament (NCMPs) and Nominated Members of Parliament (NMPs) who are appointed.

ELECTIONS
Presidential Elections
- In 1992, the Singapore Constitution was amended to provide for a President elected by the people - Before that, all four Presidents were elected by the legislature - An elected President's term is six years

Political Parties

Political Parties
Peoples Action Party - Established by two leftwing factions - the socialists led by Lee Kuan Yew and pro-communist sympathisers by Lim Chin Siong. - Ideologies (CR): Modern, Social conservatism, Fiscal conservatism, Third Way, Anti- Communism. - Lee Hsien Loong

Political Parties
Workers Party - Founded by former Chief Minister and LF leader David Marshall, it is the oldest opposition party today. - Ideology (CL): Social Democracy - Low Thia Kiang

MANAGED ELECTIONS

RESULTS OF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN SINGAPORE

 Constituency
electoral district; is a distinct territorial subdivision for holding a separate election for one or more seats in a legislative body. Single-member district: one vote for one candidate Multiple-member district: options are now available for voting

By-election
Also known as the special election, occurs when a political office becomes vacant between regularly scheduled elections, for the reason of the incumbents sudden death or resignation. In the case of Singapore, oppositions adopted type of election as a strategy to undermine PAP dominance

Singaporean Government
British Westminster model of parliamentary democracy Unicameral Parliamentary System
Cabinet headed by the PM

Voting System: First-past-the-post system Singapore has about 20 political parties. However, they have all been marginalized by the PAP.

Electoral Party System

Consists of both single-member and multiple-member constituencies 1988 introduction of the Group Representation Constituencies (GRCs)
14 of the 23 electoral constituencies consist of multiple-member GRC wards, electing Team MPs (members of the Parliament), consisting of 5 or 6 candidates

 The political predominance of PAP has created a political system described by scholars (Blondel, 1969; Huntington and Moore, 1970; etc.) as a dominant one-party system Such dominance has enabled the ruling government to effect dramatic transformations of countrys political arena with minimal difficulty, despite objections from the Opposition camp.

Constitutional-electoral Reforms
Non-constituency Member of Parliament (NCMP)
Specifies the condition of parliamentary membership of the three highestscoring Opposition candidates if ever they failed to win any seat in the general elections However, it is also specified that they could not vote on key issues in Parliament, including constitutional amendments as well as budgetary and supply bills.

 Nominated MP (NMP)
Offers more opportunity for political participation and to evolve a more consensual style of government... (Minister Goh Chok Tong) Like NCMPs, NMPs are not eligible to vote on money and constitutional bills or on motions of no confidence Non-partisanship must be observed by the potential nominee of NMP in order not to be recognized as a nuisance candidate.

 Group Representation Constituencies (GRC)

Refers to the voting patterns of younger Singaporeans, who seemed unaware of the need to return a racially balanced slate of candidates. It ensures that the Parliament would forever be multiracial in composition and representation. (Goh, 1989). Under this proposal, multiple-member constituencies were created and teams of candidates had to include at least one candidate belong to either Malay, Indian or other minority communities.

 Elected President (EP)

Has a fiduciary role: being a public custodian to safeguard the Republics financial reserves from being unscrupulously squandered by a new government. Governments principal motive for the elected presidency: (1) safeguarding large foreign reserves, (2) the need to ensure the credibility and efficiency of the state bureaucracy

Overseas Voting
April 2001 the amendment of Parliamentary Elections Act allows Singaporeans residing abroad to register as overseas electors and remain entitled to vote However only five cities will only be available of overseas voting: Beijing, Hong Kong, Canberra, London, and Washington

Allegations of Unfair Electoral Practices by the PAP

PAPs mistreatment towards oppositions seated in the Parliament Restrictions on political communication
Censorship of international publications and domestic media about oppositions standpoints. Severe limitations of electoral campaign period on opposition candidates

Empirical Tests of Selected Allegations

Terms to remember:
Group Representation Constituency Single Member Constituency Gerrymandering Walkover Districts

ETHNIC POLITICS IN SINGAPORE

ETHNIC SETTING OF SINGAPORE

SOCIAL STRATA
ETHNIC GROUP
CHINESE INDIAN (Tamils) MALAYS

PERCENT IN POPULATION
75% 9% 14%

MONTHLY INCOME (2006)

Sg$6,520 Sg$5,940 Sg$3,850

EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT (2000)

10.8% 8.1% 1.8%

 acute sense of relative deprivation generally felt by the Malay community with their persisting place in the socio- economic margins of society.
economic disadvantage

support for the opposition party candidates

EMPIRICAL TESTS OF POLITICAL DIFFERENCES BY ETHNICITY

EMPIRICAL TESTS OF POLITICAL DIFFERENCES BY ETHNICITY

Determinants of Individuals Dissatisfaction with Government in 2002

1.

Estimate Malay Indian -.164 -.325*

Education
Income Female

.103*
.021 -.025

Age Category
Constant 1 (Y = 1) Constant 2 (Y = 2)

-.069
-1.078* 2.516*

Nagelkerke R2
2 Degrees of Freedom

.028
30.069* 6

N
Source: Singapore subset of 2002 World Values Survey

1,342

Four category dependent variable:

Satisfaction with the ruling PAP leadership: a) VERY SATISFIED- 22.5% b) FAIRLY SATISFIED- 68.7% c) FAIRLY DISSATISFIED- 6.8% d) VERY DISSATISFIED- 2.1%

2. Examination of actual voting result

a. compare average level of opposition 2006 Malay GRCs vote for opposition- 35% Indian/other GRCs- 28%

 b.
Chinese, % Opp. (standard error) Malay, % Opp. (standard error) Indian, % Opp. (standard error) N

1976 23.7* (1.3)

1988 28.6* ( 1.9) 70.4* ( 5.8) 10.5 (11.1) 54 13

2006 34.8* ( 3.6) 22.7* ( 8.6) 38.5 (25.1)

43.2* (5.4)

11.0 (9.8)

53

CONCLUSION
The ruling party poses tactics that are unfairly detrimental to the

opposition
Introduction of the PAPs GRC system (1988) has a huge bearing on the eventual results of the general election. Threat of the increasing middle class to PAPs monopolization.

CONCLUSION
Later desegration of the city has blunted the Malays ethno political solidarity. Rising opposition spearheaded by the ethnically Chinese. PAPs regime could be fading for the next generation.

References:
Fetzer, J. S. (2008). Election Strategy and Ethnic Politics in Singapore. Taiwan Journal of Democracy, Volume 4, No. 1, 135-153. Hwee, Y. L. (2002). Electoral Politics in Singapore. Electoral Politics in Southeast and East Asia, 203-232. Mutalib, H. (2002). Constitutional-Electoral Reforms and Politics in Singapore. Legislative Studies Quarterly, Volume 27, No. 4, 659-672. (2004, August 22). Retrieved July 11, 2013, from Singapore Elections Web site: http://www.singapore-elections.com/

References:
Singapore Demographics Profile 2013. (2013, February 21). Retrieved July 11, 2013, from Index Mundi Web site: http://www.indexmundi.com/singapore/demographics_profile.html Department of Statistics Singapore. (2012). Yearbook of Statistics Singapore 2012. Singapore: Department of Statistics Ministry of Trade & Industry. Tan, N. (2012). Constitutional Engineering and Regulating Ethnic Politics in Singapore. Constitutional Design and Ethnic Conflict Conference, (pp. 1-31). New York.