Foreign Policy Analysis

Debbie Affianty, MSi, MA

Foreign Policy Analysis

The objective of foreign policy analysis is to attain generalizable knowledge about foreign policy decision making, behavior, and outcomes. Foreign Policy analysts think in terms of independent and dependent variables.

Determining Theoretical Frameworks

To simplify the description of the multitude of research object, we need to borrow model or theoretical frameworks in analyzing a foreign policy. The model depends on the preferred levels of analysis and approaches.

Choosing the Levels of Analysis (1)

Individual Level of Analysis Focuses on leaders and decision makers in an effort to explain foreign policy. It assumes that individuals shape the course of history, because it is their choices and decisions that drive the course of events. The analysis of individuals might focus on either their personalities or on their perceptions. Individuals often do not make decisions alone but instead work together with others in a group or in a bureaucratic setting. Group interactions are often classified at the individual level of analysis because the focus tends to be on understanding the dynamics of interpersonal reaction rather than on the group as an undifferentiated unit.
1. The

Choosing the Levels of Analysis (2)

2. The State Level of Analysis

Focus on factors internal to the state as those that compel states to engage in specific foreign policy behaviors. Such analyses include the institutional framework of the state (such as the relationship between the executive and legislative branches of government, the organization of the government bureaucracy, or whether the state is a democracy), domestic constituencies (such as interest groups, ethnic groups, or public opinion more generally), economic conditions, and also the states national history and culture. At this level of analysis, the emphasis is on how factors internal to the state influence the behavior of that state on the global stage.

Choosing the Levels of Analysis (3)

3. The System Level of Analysis

Focuses on comparisons (and interactions) between states that are guided by their relative capabilities, such as their power and wealth, which influence their possibilities for action and for success on the global stage. These relative attributes may change across time as a countrys economy yields more wealth or as it attains technological or military capacities. The reverse may also be true: countries can lose as well as gain power. Changes in relative capabilities of states may create opportunities but also increase the constraints on states. An increase in military capacities may embolden a state, while an increasingly interdependent world economy presents contraints. Between the state and system levels of analysis sits the twolevel game. This concept describes the fact that foreign policy decision makers try to satisfy domestic constituencies and international imperatives simultaneously.

Levels of Analysis and the Study of Foreign Policy

Level of Analysis Individual State System Foreign Policy Focus Options/Decisions Behaviors Outcomes

Selecting the Approaches

Realism Liberalism Constructivist Marxist

Example: Rosenaus Model

Rosenaus distinguish three conceptions of foreign policy as an output, that include : (1) As a cluster of orientations that include attitudes, perceptions and values that derive from the historical experiences and strategic circumstances that are rooted in the traditions and aspirations of its scociety.; (2) As a set of commitments to and plans for action consist of national goals and means for achieving them as well as the maintenance of external situations in accordance with orientations, directed as strategies, decisions, and / or policies.; (3) As a form of behavior, action or concrete actions as a response to the occurence and situation abroad; is the manifestation of orientations, commitment, and specific goals (Rosenau, 1976:16).

Major Sources of Foreign-Policy-asPlans and Foreign-Policy-as-Behavior According to Rosenau, there are four major sources of foreign policy making: systemic sources, Societal sources, governmental sources, and Idiosyncratic sources.

1. 2. 3. 4.

Systemic Sources
a. Size

b. Geography
c. Great Power Structure

d. Alliances
e. Technology

Societal Sources
a. Economic Development

b. Cultural and history c. Social Structure d. Moods of Opinion.

Governmental Sources
a. Political Accountability b. Governmental Structure

Idiosyncratic sources

Values Talent Experience, and Personality of Leaders

Example (1):
AUSTRALIAS FOREIGN POLICY IN ECONOMIC SECTOR TO INDONESIA (1990-1992) : AN ANALYSIS OF THE INCREASING WORLD ECONOMIC REGIONALISM AND DOMESTIC ECONOMIC CRISIS IN AUSTRALIA

Example (2):
AUSTRALIAN FOREIGN POLICY TO INDONESIA (19971999): AN ANALYSIS THROUGH INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL FACTORS National interest Internal Factors: the Roles of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Trade, the Ministry of Defense, and The Prime Minister. The roles of Parliament, Interest Groups, Media, and Public at large External Factors: Circumstances in Indonesia, esp. Human Rights in East Timor Australian Perception to the Circumstances in Indonesia The Impacts of the Issue of Human Rights in East Timor to the Bilateral Relations between Indonesia and Australia.