Professional Documents
Culture Documents
New Economy
2
National Labor
Market Trends
Betty McGrath, NC Employment
Security Commission
4
Industry Classification
North American Industrial Classification (NAICS)
Goods-Producing Service-Providing
Natural Resources and Mining Trade, Transportation and Utilities
Construction Information
Manufacturing Financial Activities
Other Services
Government
5
Total Nonfarm and Industrial Domain
Annual Average Employment*
1996, 2000 and 2006
1996
2000
2006
175,000,000
150,000,000
131,785,000 136,174,000
119,708,000 113,605,000
125,000,000
107,136,000
96,299,000
100,000,000
75,000,000
50,000,000
7
Goods Producing
Annual Average Employment*
1996, 2000 and 2006
1996
2000
20,000,000 2006
17,237,000 17,263,000
17,500,000
14,197,000
15,000,000
12,500,000
10,000,000
7,689,000
6,787,000
7,500,000
5,536,000
5,000,000
2,500,000
637,000 599,000 684,000
0
Manufacturing Construction Natural Resources
and Mining
*Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics Annual Average Employment
8
Manufacturing Industries
Annual Average Employment* 1996, 2000 and 2006
1996 2000 2006
Industry
Employment Employment Employment
*Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics Annual Average Employment 9
Service Producing Industries
• Employment Changes between 1996 and 2006:
10
Service Providing Industries
Annual Average Employment*
1996, 2000 and 2006
1996
2000
30,000,000 2006
26,231,000
27,500,000 26,225,000
24,239,000
25,000,000
21,990,000
22,500,000 20,790,000
19,539,000
20,000,000
17,838,000
16,666,000 17,552,000
17,500,000
15,109,000
15,000,000 13,683,000 13,462,000
12,500,000
10,000,000
7,500,000
5,000,000
2,500,000
0
Trade, Transportation, and Educational and Health Professional and Business Government
Utilities Services Services
*Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics Annual Average Employment
11
Service Providing Industries
Annual Average Employment*
1996, 2000 and 2006
1996
2000
2006
15,000,000
13,143,000
11,862,000
12,500,000
10,777,000
10,000,000
8,363,000
7,687,000
6,969,000
7,500,000
5,432,000
5,168,000
4,690,000
5,000,000
3,631,000
2,940,000 3,055,000
2,500,000
0
Leisure and Hospitality Information Finance Other Services
*Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS Current Employment Statistics Annual Average Employment
12
Service Providing Industries
Annual Average Employment* 1996, 2000 and 2006
1996 2000 2006
Industry
Employment Employment Employment
Education and Health Services 13,683,000 15,109,000 17,838,000
*Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics Annual Average Employment 13
Unemployment and Mass Layoffs
• Changes in the civilian labor force
– Between 1996 and 2006 the civilian labor force grew
– Unemployment rose during 2002, 2003 and 2004
– Between 2000 and 2006, BLS reported that there were
122,889 Mass Layoff events.
– Over 41,000 of these events were in manufacturing
industries
14
Average Annual Labor Force,
Employed, Unemployed and Unemployment Rate* (1996-2006)
*Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Labor Force Statistics Current Population Survey (CPS) 15
Projections
• Every 2 years BLS Releases Projections:
– Labor Force
– Industry
– Occupation
• Cover a 10 year time period
• Latest projections span the time period 2004-2014
16
Labor Force Projections
• The US Labor Force is expected to increase by 14 million
– Represents a 10% increase over 2004
• The Labor Force will change due to composition of the
population and rates of participation
– Labor Force will continue to age,
– Baby boomers will be between 50-68 years,
– Percentage of young workers will decrease,
– Percentage of women will increase,
– Hispanic Labor Force will reach 25.8 million by 2014.
17
Labor Force Projections*
Age
Gender
19
BLS Industrial Projections
Goods Producing Industries
20
Bureau of Labor Statistics Industrial Projections Service Providing
Industries
21
BLS Occupational Projections
• Total Employment projected to increase by 18.9
million jobs over the 2004-2014 period
– Professional and Related Occupations and Service
Occupations will contribute the most growth
– Professional and Related occupations will increase by
over 6 million jobs
– Service occupations will increase by over 5.2 million jobs
– Production occupations and Farming, fishing and forestry
occupations will continue to decline
22
Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Projections
All Occupations and Major Occupational Groups
2004 2014 Numeric Percent
Occupation
Employment Employment Change Change
23
Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Projections
Fastest Growing Occupations by Percent Change
Replacement
2004 2014 Numeric Percent
Occupation and Growth
Employment Employment Change Change
Openings
Home health aides 623,982 973,696 349,714 56.0% 431,464
Network systems and data communications
231,271 357,461 126,190 54.6% 153,418
analysts
Medical assistants 387,104 588,637 201,533 52.1% 273,144
Physician assistants 61,963 92,726 30,763 49.6% 40,282
Computer software engineers, applications 459,753 682,180 222,427 48.4% 267,888
Physical therapist assistants 58,671 84,605 25,934 44.2% 35,723
Dental hygienists 157,803 226,163 68,360 43.3% 81,813
Computer software engineers, systems software 340,297 486,459 146,162 43.0% 179,812
Dental assistants 267,436 381,747 114,311 42.7% 189,084
Personal and home care aides 701,218 988,497 287,279 41.0% 399,619
Network and computer systems administrators 278,381 385,249 106,868 38.4% 137,742
Database administrators 104,382 144,281 39,899 38.2% 50,687
Physical therapists 154,541 211,316 56,775 36.7% 71,994
Forensic science technicians 9,823 13,399 3,576 36.4% 5,889
Veterinary technologists and technicians 60,017 81,214 21,197 35.3% 29,022
24
Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Projections
Fastest Growing Occupations by Numeric Change
Replacement
2004 2014 Numeric Percent
Occupation and Growth
Employment Employment Change Change
Openings
4,256,13 4,991,9 2,282,9
Retail salespersons 17.3%
8 34 735,796 71
2,393,55 3,096,1 1,203,4
Registered nurses 29.4%
9 24 702,565 29
2,062,93 2,534,2
Customer service representatives 22.8%
2 32 471,300 778,049
Janitors and cleaners, except maids and 2,373,79 2,813,3
18.5%
housekeeping cleaners 7 53 439,556 890,043
2,251,62 2,627,3 1,534,2
Waiters and waitresses 16.7%
1 62 375,741 65
Combined food preparation and serving 2,149,81 2,516,3 1,298,3
17.1%
workers, including fast food 3 91 366,578 49
Home health aides 56.0%
623,982 973,696 349,714 431,464
1,455,36 1,780,5
Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 22.3%
4 97 325,233 515,906
1,806,99 2,114,8
General and operations managers 17.0%
1 58 307,867 648,687
Personal and home care aides 41.0%
701,218 988,497 287,279 399,619
Elementary school teachers, except 1,456,97 1,722,2
18.2%
special education 5 01 265,226 586,790
1,176,23 1,440,0
Accountants and auditors 22.4%
9 93 263,854 485,893
3,137,84 3,401,3
Office clerks, general 8.4%
0 10 263,470 958,455
Laborers and freight, stock, and material 2,430,18 2,678,3 1,042,3
10.2%
movers, hand 8 41 248,153 16
1,132,62 1,378,5
Receptionists and information clerks 21.7%
6 27 245,901 524,179
25
Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Projections Occupations by
Replacement and Growth Openings
Replacement
2004 2014 Numeric Percent
Occupation and Growth
Employment Employment Change Change
Openings
4,256,13 4,991,9 2,282,9
Retail salespersons 735,79 17.3%
8 34 71
3,469,93 3,577,5 6 1,795,8
Cashiers, except gaming 107,60 3.1%
9 42 59
2,251,62 2,627,3 3 1,534,2
Waiters and waitresses 375,74 16.7%
1 62 65
1
Combined food preparation and serving 2,149,81 2,516,3 1,298,3
366,57 17.1%
workers, including fast food 3 91 49
8
2,393,55 3,096,1 1,203,4
Registered nurses 702,56 29.4%
9 24 29
Laborers and freight, stock, and material 2,430,18 2,678,3 5 1,042,3
248,15 10.2%
movers, hand 8 41 16
3,137,84 3,401,3 3
Office clerks, general 263,47 8.4%
0 10 958,455
0
Janitors and cleaners, except maids and 2,373,79 2,813,3
439,55 18.5%
housekeeping cleaners 7 53 890,043
6
2,062,93 2,534,2
Customer service representatives 471,30 22.8%
2 32 778,049
1,806,99 2,114,8 0
General and operations managers 307,86 17.0%
1 58 648,687
Elementary school teachers, except 1,456,97 1,722,2 7
265,22 18.2%
special education 5 01 - 586,790
1,565,93 1,451,1 6
Stock clerks and order fillers 114,83 -7.3%
7 01 579,496
Sales representatives, wholesale and 6
1,453,62 1,640,9
manufacturing, except technical and 187,33 12.9%
5 56 569,021
scientific products 1
1,280,19 1,456,2
Child care workers 176,07 13.8%
5 65 524,658
1,132,62 1,378,5 0
Receptionists and information clerks 245,90 21.7%
6 27 524,179
1
26
National Labor Market Trends
• Dynamic and Changing Economy
– Industry Shifts from Goods Producing to Service Providing
– Changing Demographics of our workforce
– Growth Occupations
• Our Workforce Development System Plays a critical role
in the success of our economy
– Help to assist employers with locating and employing a
skilled labor force
– Assist workers with obtaining new employment
opportunities
– Assist workers with gaining the skills needed to compete in
our dynamic and global economy
27
The Nation’s Performance: PY01-PY05
• National Performance
– How has the nation’s performance changed in light of the
changes within the economy shift?
• Review of performance
• Who are we serving?
• National Statistics
• Conclusion
28
WIA Participants and Exiters
PY 01-05
Participants Exiters
1800000
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
29
Participation Levels by Cohort
Adults DW Older Youth Younger Youth
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
30
Who is the typical WIA Adult?
• Female
• Unemployed
• Low Income
• Age 18-54
• Completed 12th grade and received diploma
31
Who is the typical WIA Dislocated Worker?
• Female
• Unemployed
• Low Income
• Age 18-54
• Completed 12th grade and received diploma
• 13% of population reported as HS dropouts
32
Who is the typical WIA Youth?
• Female
• Highest grade attainment is 9th grade
• Basic skills deficient
33
Who is the typical Wagner-Peyser Participant?
• Male
• Aged18-44
• High School Graduate or GED
• 3% were referred to WIA services
34
Entered Employment Rate
DW WIA Adult
89%
84%
79%
74%
69%
64%
2002 2003 2004 2005
35
Employment Retention Rate
DW Adult
90.00%
88.00%
86.00%
84.00%
82.00%
80.00%
78.00%
76.00%
74.00%
72.00%
70.00%
2002 2003 2004 2005
36
WIA Adult and DW Average Earnings
WIA DW
$15,000
$14,000
$13,000
$12,000
$11,000
$10,000
$9,000
$8,000
$7,000
$6,000
$5,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
37
Wagner-Peyser Entered Employment & Employment Retention
100.00%
80.00%
60.00%
40.00%
20.00%
0.00%
2002 2003 2004 2005
The Quarter End 3/31/06 actual Entered Employment Rate was 61%.
The Quarter End 3/31/07 actual Entered Employment Rate was 63%.
The Quarter End 3/31/06 actual Employment Retention Rate was 80%.
The Quarter End 3/31/07 actual Employment Retention Rate was 83%.
38
Older Youth Entered Employment Rate
Negotiated Actual
80%
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
39
Older Youth Employment Retention Rate
Negotiated Actual
84.00%
82.00%
80.00%
78.00%
76.00%
74.00%
72.00%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
40
Older Youth Earnings Change
Negotiated Actual
$4,000
$3,500
$3,000
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
41
Our Workforce Needs In a Changing Economy
• Examined:
– The National Labor Market
– The National Performance for ETA Programs
• Examine Challenges the Workforce System faces due to
Economic Changes
42
Economic Strengths & Challenges
International Comparison of GDP Per Hour Worked in 2005
43
Economic Strengths & Challenges
44
Jobs in the Knowledge Economy
By 2014:
45
Education Pays In More Ways Than One
Unemployment rate in Median weekly
2006 Education attained earnings in 2006
(Percent) (Dollars)
1.4 Doctoral degree 1,441
1.1 Professional degree 1,474
1.7 Master's degree 1,140
2.3 Bachelor's degree 962
3.0 Associate degree 721
3.9 Some college, no degree 674
4.3 High-school graduate 595
46
Trends in Median Weekly Earnings By Education
47
Employment & Wage Growth
By Educational Cluster, 2001-2006
48
Changes in the Way We Do Business
• Demand Driven
– Skilled jobs in High-Growth, High-demand Industries
– Increased opportunities in STEM industries
• High Growth Job Training Initiative
• Community Based Job Training Grants
• ETA’s Strategic Youth Vision …and now
• Workforce Innovation in Regional Economic Development
(WIRED) - Talent development driving regional economic
competitiveness
– Expand employment and advance opportunities
– Catalyzing the creation of high-skill, high wage jobs
49
What Does This Mean for Performance?
• Common Measures alone are not sufficient to
assess performance
50
Scenario
• We know that:
– High skill, High demand, High wage jobs:
• Require post secondary education
• Are less likely to be unemployed
• Workforce Investment System is charged with:
– Educating and training for customers that responds to
employers needs
– Providing career paths that will achieve economic self-
sustaining jobs
51
Occupations: Top 50 National In Demand (First 10) List
Projected Average
High Growth Need 2004 - Entry
Title Industry 2014 Wage
Registered Nurses Health Care 1,203,000 $37,440
Sales Representatives, Wholesale and
Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific
Products Retail 569,000 $24,960
Accountants and Auditors Financial Services 486,000 $33,280
Information
Computer Software Engineers, Applications Technology 268,000 $47,840
Homeland
Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers Security 265,000 $27,040
Physicians and Surgeons Health Care 212,000 $43,680
First-Line Supervisors/Managers of
Construction Trades and Extraction Workers Construction 209,000 $31,200
Information
Computer Systems Analysts Technology 208,000 $43,680
Electricians Energy 207,000 $24,960
Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters Construction 193,000 $24,960
52
Scenario (cont’d)
• PY 2005 WIASRD Data Reveals:
53
US Top Ten Occupations PY 2005 WIA Adult & DW Received Training
Average
Number Percent
Occupation Usual Education Entry
Trained of Total
Wage
Moderate-term on-the-job
Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer training 11,550 11.77% $28,002
Postsecondary vocational
Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants award 8,636 8.80% $19,090
Licensed Practical and Licensed Postsecondary vocational
Vocational Nurses award 5,789 5.90% $31,271
Moderate-term on-the-job
Medical Assistants training 4,171 4.25% $22,438
Registered Nurses Associate degree 3,524 3.59% $45,844
Short-term on-the-job
Office Clerks, General training 2,090 2.13% $18,501
Medical Records and Health Information
Technicians Associate degree 2,000 2.04% $22,431
Postsecondary vocational
Medical Secretaries award 1,607 1.64% $22,727
Computer Support Specialists Associate degree 1,426 1.45% $31,166
Executive Secretaries and Administrative Moderate-term on-the-job
Assistants training 1,421 1.45% $29,288
54
In Conclusion…
55
Thank You!
Betty McGrath, Economist
North Carolina Employment Security
Labor Market Information
700 Wade Avenue
PO BOX 27903
Raleigh, NC 27611-5903
betty.mcgrath@ncmail.net
Eirik Anderson
US DOL, Chicago
230 S. Dearborn, 6th FL
Chicago, IL 60604
Anderson.eirik@dol.gov
O’Shell Howell
US DOL, Philadelphia
170 S. Independence Mall W,
Philadelphia, PA 19106
Howell.o’shell@dol.gov
215-862-5298
Jackie Keener
US DOL, Philadelphia
170 S. Independence Mall W
Philadelphia, PA 19106
Keener.jacqueline@dol.gov
215-861-5244
56