Incorporating a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea into ASEANs PoliticalSecurity Community: The Road Ahead

Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer Presentation to Final Session ASEAN and the South China Sea: The Road to The COC How to Achieve It? September 19, 2013

Outline
1. Overview of Political-Developments, 2011-12 2. ASEAN Political-Security Community 2015 3. Southeast Asia Maritime Treaty of Peace, Cooperation and Development

Overview of Political-Developments
Guidelines to Implement DOC (July 2011)
Four Expert ASEAN-China Working Groups set up in January 2012

Proposed Elements of a Regional Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC) between ASEAN Member States and the Peoples Republic of China
July 2012 45th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting

Overview of Political-Developments
ASEANs Six-Point Principles on the South China Sea, July 20 Indonesias Zero Draft Regional Code of Conduct (non-paper), September Brunei becomes ASEAN Chair, 2013 19th ASEAN-China Senior Officials Consultations, April 2

Overview of Political-Developments
46th AMM, April
we look forward to the formal consultations between ASEAN and China at the SOM level on the COC with an aim to reach an early conclusion of a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea

23rd ASEAN Summit, April

We tasked out Ministers to continue to work actively with China on the way forward for the early conclusion of a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea on the basis of consensus

Chinas Foreign Minister Visits Southeast Asia (April/May and August)

Wang Yi, Hanoi, August 5: First, reasonable expectations. Second, consensus through negotiations. Third, elimination of interference. Fourth, step-by-step approach 6th ASEAN-China SOM and 9th Joint Working Group Meeting on Implementation of DOC

ASEAN Political-Security Community

Southeast Asian autonomy
ZOPFN (1971), TAC (1976), SEANWFZ (2005)

ASEAN centrality in regions security affairs

ARF, EAS, ADMM Plus, Enlarged AMF

Evolution towards APSC

ASEAN TAC, Article 14, High Council ASEAN Vision 2020 (1997) Hanoi Plan of Action (1998) Bali Concord II (2003) ASC Plan of Action and Annex (2004)

ASEAN Political-Security Community

ASEAN Charter (2008) ASEAN Political-Security Community Blueprint (2009)
ADMM (2006) part of ASEAN Political-Security Council ARF Inter-Sessional Meeting on Maritime Security
Work Plan (July 2011)

ADMM Plus (2010), Expert Working Groups

Southeast Asia Maritime Treaty

Leverage Separate consultations with China on DOC and COC so they run in parallel DOC discussions:
Clarify if recognition of Chinas sovereignty is prerequisite for cooperative activities Set up 5 Expert Working Groups

Southeast Asia Maritime Treaty

ASEAN should draft its own COC
Polish Indonesias Zero Draft Regional COC Obtain endorsement from dialogue partners

DOC/COC consultations with China necessary but not sufficient Binding COC an important goal but a misplaced priority Focus on South China Sea is too restrictive

Southeast Asia Maritime Treaty

UNCLOS and international law cover all the worlds seas and maritime domain Maritime domain central to Southeast Asia Negotiate Southeast Asia Maritime Treaty of Peace, Cooperation and Development
Security of maritime domain is indivisible International law is applicable to all of Southeast Asias maritime domain

Southeast Asia Maritime Treaty

Treaty will strengthen ASEANs corporate and legal identify, provide leverage Treaty should be integral to APSC Resolve Southeast Asias numerous maritime disputes All states should bring their claims into accord with international law Demarcate maritime zones under UNCLOS

Southeast Asia Maritime Treaty

Identify areas/features in dispute
Negotiate to resolve, set deadline Seek arbitration

Demilitarise islands/rocks, use Coast Guard Engage in cooperative activities Set up body to oversee Treaty implementation and resolve disputes Members: ASEAN, Timor-Leste + others

Conclusion
Need to develop leverage
Separate DOC and COC discussions Draft ASEANs own Code of Conduct

Adopt Southeast Asia Maritime Treaty Assert regional autonomy Assert ASEANs centrality Streamline existing regional architecture

Incorporating a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea into ASEANs PoliticalSecurity Community: The Road Ahead
Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer Presentation to Final Session ASEAN and the South China Sea: The Road to The COC How to Achieve It? September 19, 2013