Estimation of Global Solar Radiation (GSR) over Egypt

Eng. Taha Abdo Mohamed

M.Sc candidate Ain Shams Univercity Abbassia, Cairo 11517, Egypt abduoco@yahoo.com
1

A. Prof. Dr. Mohamed ELShimy

Electrical Power and Machines Dept. Ain Shams Univercity Abbassia, Cairo 11517, Egypt Mohamed_bekhet@eng.asu.edu.eg
9/26/2013

Main objective
Determine the best mathematical models for estimating the GSR on a horizontal surface over Egypt.
1st stag e

Evaluation most of the available models for a specific set of sites, 6 sites, in Egypt.
Egypt is divided into a set of regions each one described by the best found GSR model. The determined regions and its models are based on the results of 1st stage The regional best model determined based on the best model for the sites, 4 sites, contained in a specific region

2nd stage

9/26/2013

Methodology

9/26/2013

Meteorological observations parameters

NASA website

Solar Atlas of Egypt Such as

Monthly average daily GSR on a horizontal surface , kW/m/day
Monthly average daily extraterrestrial radiation, kW/m/day Monthly average daily hours of bright sunshine, hour Monthly average day length, hour Monthly averaged humidity ratio at10 meters above earth surface, % Monthly averaged wind speed at 50 m above earth surface, m/sec Monthly averaged maximum and minimum air temperature, C Monthly averaged relative humidity, %
4 9/26/2013

Evaluation criteria
correlation coefficient ()
- A measure of the strength of linear dependence between two

variables, giving a value between +1 and 1 inclusive.

Sum of Squared Errors (SSE )

-A measure of the deviations of the actual values from the predicted values, within the sample used for estimation

9/26/2013

Consequently,
A multi-objective criterion is used to determine the best model for a specific location.

The objectives are maximization of the correlation () and minimization of the SSE between observed & estimated values of GSR in a specific site.
The best model is characterized by a higher () and a lower SSE in comparison between the rest of the models.

9/26/2013

Results

1 stage

Table 1:The best models for a subset of six sites

9/26/2013

Figure 2: The best models for a subset of six sites

9/26/2013

Best models
Kilic & Ozturk model (K&O)

GOB(1) model

9/26/2013

Results

2 stage

Table 2:The best models for a subset of four sites

10

9/26/2013

Figure 3: The best models for a subset of F64R sites

11

9/26/2013

Conclusion
The whole lands of Egypt are divided into two regions from the GSR estimation perspective

12

9/26/2013

Recommendations
With available limited number of ground stations in Egypt for measuring the GSR, it is possible with given models to estimate the GSR for any location in Egypt. This work is beneficial for the design of all solar-energy related projects such as :-

solar based power plants solar based irrigation water pumping systems solar based water desalination systems.
The outcomes of this work are valuable for solar resource assessment and other meteorological studies.
13 9/26/2013