Three reasons why reclamation of nearshore Manila Bay is a VERY BAD IDEA: 1.

Rapid subsidence of coastal lands is enhancing the risk of flooding and high tides. 2. Storm surges are an ever-worsening threat, due in part to subsidence, but also from climate change because typhoons are increasing in strength and frequency. 3. Reclaimed coastal areas are the most susceptible to liquefaction during earthquakes.

1. Land subsidence

. then started rising ten times as fast. WHY?

At Manilas South Harbor, mean sea level rose at about 2 millimeters per year from 1902 to the early 1960s. . . (Global warming)

1770 MLD in 2004 (CEST 2004) 989 MLD in 1990 (JICA 1992)

Groundwater withdrawal!

778 MLD

Metro Manila`s groundwater demand is still increasing.

250 MLD

Consequently, subsidence will continue and may even accelerate!

<20 million liters per day (MLD)

Growth of Metro Manila (Pinkish areas are house roofs)

More areas below sealevel

January 25, 1999

April 14, 2012

1600

1400
1200 1000

If we use more water than nature can put back (recharge), the land must sink!

10

8
989 778

800
600 400

Average recharge for Metro Manila = 564 MLD (JICA 1992)

250

4
2
2000

200
0
1900 1920

<20

1940

1960 Year

1980

As population increases, groundwater use increases !!!

Metro Manila Population, millions

GW Extraction, Million Liters per Day

1800

Growth of Metro Manila Population Metro Manila Ground Water Usage

1770

12

Pumps extract water from aquifers layers of sand and gravel soaked with water. Pumping water too rapidly out of the aquifer reduces the pressure pore spaces between grains of sand and gravel. Water in the clay layers is sucked into the aquifer.
This causes the clay layers to shrink . . .

How groundwater withdrawal causes land to subside

Pipe may appear to rise out of the ground

. . . and the ground surface to sink.

Subsidence from water withdrawal

Loosely packed sand

When water is removed, Volume is grains crowd somewhat together a reduced, so little more land sinks a closely. little. But sand cannot compact very much. Clay deposits contains much and can more water . . shrink much . more.

Our delta sediments are very clayey!

1.40

1.46

0.76 0.79 0.57 0.59 0.61 0.51

Benchmarks used for releveling (1978 vs 2000) survey (Jacob 2004) Maximum magnitude of subsidence 1.46 meters or 6.4 centimeters/year (about 2 inches/year) .

0.88 0.96 0.77 0.95 0.95 0.64 0.96 0.73

0.67

0.16

0.57 0.46

0.43

0.46

0.47

0.46

More recently, Lagmay et al. of National Institute of Geological Sciences have measured subsidence using satellite-borne Permanent Scatterer Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar

Malolos

Obando Valenzuela

Guiguinto Marilao Kalookan Navotas Malabon TaguigPateros Las Pias Muntinglupa

+ 19.2 mm/y

Manila Cavite City Rosario

Subsidence in Greater Metro Manila and vicinity from 2003-2006 from PSInSAR (precision satellite data)
0 mm/y

Kawit

Dasmarias

San PedroBian
-43.8 mm/y

Mga Ibang Lungsod na Tabing-dagat sa Silangang Asia

na Lumulubog Dahil sa Sobrang Paggamit ng Tubig-poso

LOCATION PERIOD SUBSIDENCE Meters cm/year 4.5 2.8 2.63 6.5 8.2 6

Tokyo, Japan
Osaka, Japan Shanghai, China

1918-87 1934-68 1921-65

Shanghai

Tokyo Osaka

Yun-Lin Yun-Lin, 1989-97 0.66 8.25 Hanoi Taiwan (Fishpond area!) Manila Hanoi, 1988-93 0.1-0.3 2-6 Vietnam Bangkok KAMANAVA 1991-2002 0.3-1 2.7 9.1
Bangkok, 1980-90 Thailand Jakarta, 1991-99 Indonesia 0.5-1 0.3-0.8 5-10 4-10

Jakarta

Dahil halos pantay ang lupain sa paligid ng Manila Bay, kahit maliit na pagtaas ng dagat ay mahalaga.

10 o 20 kilometros mula sa dalampasigan . . . Ang lupa ay nakaangat ng 1 metro lamang mula sa taas ng dagat.
Ang ibig sabihin nito ay kung tataas ang dagat ng isang metro lamang, susulong ang tubig-dagat ng 10 o 20 kilometro.

Lowering of coasts (land subsidence) makes them increasingly vulnerable to the attack of waves and storm surges.

2. Storm surge
23 September 2011 Super Typhoon Pedring Roxas Boulevard [stop the slide show and click the video icon below before resuming the presentation]

Roxas Boulevard