Macroeconomics & The global economy

Ace Institute of Management Session 4: The open economy

Instructor Sandeep Basnyat Sandeep_basnyat@yahoo.com 9841 892281

Open Economy: Open to foreigners Contrary to Closed Economy: Export and Import some of its goods and services to other countries including capital mobility

Y = Cd + Id + Gd + EX
Consumption of Domestic Goods and Services Investment in Domestic Goods and Services Govt. Purchase of Domestic Goods and Services Export of Domestic Goods and Services

Domestic Spending on Domestic Goods and Services

Foreign Spending on Domestic Goods and Services

We know that, Domestic Spending on all Goods and Services = Domestic Spending on Domestic Goods and Services + Domestic Spending on Foreign Goods and Services

C = Cd +Cf or, Cd = C - Cf I = Id +If or, Id = I - If G = Gd +Gf or, Gd = G - Gf

C = Total Consumption Cd = Consumption of Domestic goods & services Cf = Consumption of Foreign goods & services I = Total Investment Id = Investment in Domestic goods & services If = Investment in Foreign goods & services G = Total Govt. Purchase Gd = Govt. Purchse. of Domestic goods & services Gf = Govt. Purchse. of Foreign goods & services

Y = (C - Cf) + (I - If) + (G - Gf) + EX

Y = C + I + G + EX(Cf+If+Gf)
Y = C + I + G + EXIM
Expenditure on Imports Net Exports or Trade Balance Domestic spending need not equal the Output

Y = C + I + G + NX
NX= Y (C + I + G)

Net Exports = Output Domestic Spending

If Output > Domestic Spending : NX Positive: Export more If Output < Domestic Spending : NX Negative: Import more

Y = C + I + G + NX

YC G= I+ NX S = I+ NX
S I = NX
Net Capital Outflow or Net Foreign Investment Net Exports or Trade Balance

If, Domestic S > Domestic I, NCO is +ve ; Excess S will be loaned out to foreigners and economy experiences Capital Outflow. If, Domestic S < Domestic I, NCO is ve ; Deficit financing is done by borrowing from abroad and economy experiences Capital Inflow. Net Capital Outflow = Amount that Domestic residents are lending abroad Amount that foreigners are lending to us
Net Capital Outflow = Trade Balance

In Equilibrium,

In Equilibrium,

S I = NX

Net Capital Outflow = Trade Balance

Condition of Trade Surplus: If S I is positive, NX is positive, implies Trade Surplus Net Lender in International Financial Market Condition of Trade Deficit If S I is negative, NX is negative, implies Trade Deficit Net Borrower from International Financial Market Condition of Balance Trade If S I is exactly equals to NX
The national income account identity shows that the international flow of funds to finance capital accumulation and the flow of goods and services are two sides of the same coin.

An Important Macroeconomic Model Relating to Saving and Investment and Trade Balance

Assumptions:

Small Economy: Economy that is a small part of the world economy and can not affect the world interest rates. Perfect Capital Mobility: Country has full access to world financial markets. Domestic Interest rate (r) = World Interest Rate (r*) due to perfect capital mobility
Determination of Interest Rates: Domestic : Intersection of Domestic Savings and Investment World: Intersection of World Savings and Investment

More Assumptions: production function

Y Y F (K , L )

consumption function
investment function

C C ( Y T )
I I (r )
G G , T T

exogenous policy variables

More Assumptions:

S Y C ( Y T ) G

National saving: The supply of loanable funds

S, I

More Assumptions:

Investment: The demand for loanable funds but the exogenous world interest rate
determines the

r*

I (r )
I (r* )

countrys level of investment.

S, I

Explanations:

If the economy were closed

r
S

the interest rate would adjust to equate investment and saving:

rc I (r )
I (rc ) S

S, I

Explanations:
the exogenous world interest rate determines investment
and the difference between saving and investment determines net capital outflow and net exports

But in a small open economy r

S
NX

r* rc I (r ) I1

S, I

Case of Trade Surplus (S >I)

Explanations:

Or, Case of Trade Deficit

S

Trade Deficit (S < I)

rc r* I1 I (r )

S, I

How do government policies affect Trade Balance?

Three Cases:

Case 1: Starting from Trade Balance, What happens if the Home Government uses expansionary fiscal polices such as increase in G or reduce T? (Fiscal policy at home)
Case 2: Starting from Trade Balance, What happens if the Foreign Government uses expansionary fiscal polices such as increase in G?(Fiscal policy abroad) Case 3: Starting from Trade Balance, What happens if the Investment increases in the home country?(An increase in investment demand)

How Policies Influence the Trade Balance?

Case 1: Starting from Trade Balance, What happens if the Home Government uses expansionary fiscal polices such as increase in G or reduce T? As we know, i) S = Y C G; When G increases, S decreases. i) As T decreases due to tax cut, disposable income Y T increase; Stimulate consumption and C increases Which lowers S

Fiscal policy at home

r
An increase in G or decrease in T reduces saving.

S 2 S1
- NX

S<I
Country runs trade deficit

* 1

I (r ) I1

S, I

Starting from Trade Balance, a change in fiscal policy that reduces national savings causes Trade Deficit

How Policies Influence the Trade Balance?

Case 2: Starting from Trade Balance, What happens if the Foreign Government uses expansionary fiscal polices such as increase in G? Considering the foreign economy is large enough i) Increase in G by foreign government reduces world S and world interest rate r* rises. ii) Rise in r* increases costs of borrowing and reduces domestic I. iii) Since domestic S has not change, S>I and some of the savings flow abroad as capital outflow. iv) Again, as NX = S I; NX increases as I decreases that leads to Trade Surplus.

Fiscal policy abroad

Expansionary fiscal policy abroad raises the world interest rate.

r
NX2

S1

r 2* r1*
I (r )
I (r2* ) I (r1* )

S>I Country runs trade surplus

S, I

Starting from Trade Balance, an increase in the world interest rate due to fiscal expansion abroad causes Trade Surplus

How Policies Influence the Trade Balance?

Case 3: Starting from Trade Balance, What happens if the Investment increases in the home country in existing r? i) Increase in I but no change in r* ii) Since S has not change, S<I and some of the investment has to be financed by borrowing from abroad as capital inflow. iii) Again, as NX = S I; NX decreases as I increases that leads to Trade Deficit.

An increase in investment demand

r
S

S<I
Country runs trade deficit

r*

- NX

I (r )2 I (r )1 I1 I 2 S, I

Starting from Trade Balance, an outward shift in the investment schedule causes Trade Deficit

The exchange rate between two countries is the price at which residents of those countries trade with each other.
Nominal and Real

23

The nominal exchange rate

e = nominal exchange rate, the relative price of domestic currency in terms of foreign currency (e.g. Nepali Rs. 73 per US Dollar)

 Demand and Supply for the currency determines the exchange rate. Important factor: trade and Investment requirements
e
S$

e0

D$
$

Dollar Value of Transactions

Suppose there is an increase in the demand for U.S. Dollars in Nepal (for importing goods and services or going abroad). How will this affect the nominal exchange rate for US dollar in Nepal?
e e1 e0
A S$

D$ shifts rightward and increases the nominal exchange rate, e. This is known as appreciation of the dollar. Events which decrease the demand for the dollar, and thus decrease e, would be a depreciation of the dollar.

D$

D$
$

Dollar Value of Transactions

Understanding Real Interest Rate

A Japanese businessman thinks that Japanese cars made in the US are far better than those made in Japan.
The car model he likes in Japan costs 2400,000 Japanese Yen. The existing spot (nominal) exchange rate is 120 Yen/dollar.

Understanding Real Interest Rate

So, he exchanges 2400,000 Japanese Yen for $20,000 and Travels to US to buy the same car.

For his surprise, the same car in US costs only $10,000.

What are his impressions about the US and Japanese currencies?

Understanding Real Interest Rate

Impression: 1. Overvaluation of Japanese currency: He can buy more cars (2 cars) in US than Japan with same amount of money. The Japanese Yen is overvalued 2. Real exchange rate is different from nominal exchange rate: 1 American car = 0.5 Japanese Car (as US car costs half the price of the car in Japan).

The real exchange rate

= real exchange rate, the relative price of domestic goods the lowercase Greek letter in terms of foreign goods epsilon (e.g. How many Nepali KFC baskets can you buy with the amount you pay for 1 U.S. KFC basket?)

Relationship between e and e

Real Nominal Exchange Rate at Home x Price of Domes. Goods Exchange = Price of Foreign Goods Rate Nominal Relative Real Exchange = Exchange X Price of Rate Goods Rate P = Price of Domestic Goods P* = Price of Foreign Goods

(P / P*)

The real exchange rate with KFC

Costs of KFC basket in Nepal = Rs. 900 Costs of same KFC basket in US = $10 If the nominal exchange rate is Rs. 73/dollar, 1) What is the real exchange rate? 2) Is Nepalese currency overvalued or undervalued compared to US currency?

The real exchange rate with KFC

Costs of KFC basket in Nepal = Rs. 900 Costs of same KFC basket in US = $10 If the nominal exchange rate is Rs. 73/dollar, 1) What is the real exchange rate? 1.23 2) Is Nepalese currency overvalued or undervalued compared to US currency? - Overvalued

Relationship between NX and ?

Nepalese goods become more expensive relative to US goods EX, IM

NX

U.S. net exports and the real exchange rate, 1973-2006

3% 2% 1% 0% 100 80 60

Trade-weighted real exchange rate index

140 120

-1% -2%

-3%
-4% -5%

Net exports (left scale)

40 20 0

-6%
-7% 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005

Index (March 1973 = 100)

NX (% of GDP)

 The net exports function reflects this inverse relationship between NX and :

The net exports function

NX = NX( )

1
NX

NX( )

How is determined
The accounting identity says NX = S I We saw earlier how S I is determined: S depends on domestic factors (output, fiscal
policy variables, etc) I is determined by the world interest rate r *

So,

NX ( ) S I (r *)

How is determined
Neither S nor I depend on , so the net capital outflow curve is vertical.

S 1 I (r *)

adjusts to
equate NX with net capital outflow, S I.

1 NX( ) NX 1
NX

Next, four applications:

Impact on Real Exchange Rate due to:

1. Expansionary Fiscal policy at home

2. Expansionary Fiscal policy abroad 3. Domestic increase in investment demand 4. Trade policy to restrict imports

1. Fiscal policy at home

A fiscal expansion reduces national saving, net capital outflow, and the supply of NPR against dollars in the foreign exchange market causing the real exchange rate to rise and NX to fall.

S 2 I (r *)
S 1 I (r *)

2 1 NX( ) NX 2 NX 1
NX

2. Fiscal policy abroad

Expansionary Fiscal Policy abroad increases world interest rate r*, reduces investment in Nepal, increasing net capital outflow (S>I) and the supply of NPR against dollars in the foreign exchange market

S 1 I (r1 *)

S 1 I (r2 *)

1 2

NX( )
NX 1 NX 2
NX

causing the real exchange rate to fall and NX to rise.

3. Increase in investment demand at home

An increase in investment in Nepal reduces net capital outflow (S<I) and the supply of NPR against dollars in the foreign exchange market

S1 I 2

S1 I 1

2 1 NX( ) NX 2 NX 1
NX

causing the real exchange rate to rise and NX to fall.

4. Trade policy to restrict imports

At any given value of , an import quota IM NX (Note: Net Export = 2 Export Import)

S I

1
Trade policy doesnt affect S or I , so capital flows and the supply of NPR against US Dollar remain fixed.

NX ( )2

NX ( )1
NX1

NX

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)

Law of One Price:
A doctrine that states that goods must sell at the same (currency-adjusted) price in all countries. The nominal exchange rate adjusts to equalize the cost of a basket of goods across countries.

Reasoning:
arbitrage, the law of one price

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)

PPP:

e P = P*

Cost of a basket of foreign goods, in foreign currency.

Cost of a basket of domestic goods, in foreign currency.

Cost of a basket of domestic goods, in domestic currency.

Solve for e : e = P*/ P PPP implies that the nominal exchange rate
between two countries equals the ratio of the countries price levels.

Does PPP hold in the real world?

No, for two reasons: 1. International arbitrage not possible.
nontraded goods transportation costs
2. Different countries goods not perfect substitutes.

Nonetheless, PPP is a useful theory: Its simple & intuitive In the real world, nominal exchange rates tend toward their PPP values over the long run.

Thank You