LAC, LOC and Inside

Sameer Patil
Associate Fellow in National Security, Ethnic Conflict and Terrorism Studies

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Outline of presentation

India-China tensions on the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh Recent India-Pakistan skirmishes on the Line of Control Internal security situation in J&K

What to expect in 2014?

India-China tensions on the LAC

Increase in frequency of Chinese incursions
Chinas attempt to create new facts on ground Depsang intrusion

Source: India Defence Review Map of Kashmir and areas showing LAC and LOC

Chinese intrusions in Chumar

PLAs focus on Chumar sector India developing border infrastructure Chinas proposal for Border Defence Cooperation Agreement
Chumar
Source: India Defence Review Depsang and Chumar

Looking at Chinas grand strategy

Getty Images

China asserting territorial claims in the region China takes a long view of history

Chinas new leadership at the NPC meeting in Beijing

Protracted border dispute negotiations between India and China

India-Pakistan skirmishes on LOC

Killing of Indian soldiers in Poonch

Discovery of crossborder tunnel in Samba

Increase in ceasefire violations
Year
Source: Mapsofworld.com India-Pakistan LoC

2010 2011 2012 2013 (till July )

Ceasefire violations 44 51 93 33 Source: Lok Sabha

Cross-border infiltration
Rise in militant infiltration Most infiltration activities in north Kashmir Terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and POK remains intact

NYT
Indian troops patrol LoC in north Kashmir

Year 2010 2011 2012

Attempts 489 247 264

Killed 112 35 13

Returned Successful 281 95 159 52 130 121

Source: Lok Sabha

Situation in J&K
Flux situation after Afzal Gurus execution Agitational politics of separatists and Pakistans support
Showkat Shafi A stonepelter and security forces in Srinagar

Abject failures on governance front

Security situation in J&K

Targeting of the security forces and Panchayat members Local recruitment in terrorist ranks Situation in Jammu
Hindu

Security forces take position during an encounter in Sopore

What to expect in 2014?

Samaa TV

Warnings of increase in violence from Pakistani militant leaders Spillover of unstable situation in Afghanistan on J&K
A Difa e Pakistan rally in Lahore

India-Pakistan relations

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