Fire Weather 1 Meteorological Concepts

Ed. 1.0 Sept 2007

Session Goal
This training session introduces several meteorological concepts which will help you to understand weather charts, forecasts and fire weather

A number of diagrams used in this presentation are taken from Bureau of Meteorology publications (copyright Commonwealth of Australia) and are used with their permission. For more details see Fire Weather 1 Learning Manual

Slide 1

Learning Outcomes
This training session will cover two learning outcomes After completing this session you should be able to explain: how weather originates in terms of global circulation airmass and frontal characteristics, and how these may impact fire behaviour

Slide 2

Outline
1. What is weather? 2. Fundamentals of meteorology

3. Global circulation
4. Weather associated with high or low pressure 5. Airmass characteristics

6. Ridges, troughs and fronts

7. Effect of weather on fire behaviour

Slide 3

Scenario

CFA Public Affairs (used with their permission)

Slide 4

What is Weather and Climate?

Weather describes the state of the atmosphere and how it varies over short time periods from hours to days Climate refers to the long term weather conditions at a location over months or years, or average weather

Slide 5

What is Fire Weather?

Fire weather describes the atmospheric conditions of weather and climate in which:
(a) a wildfire is likely to be ignited (b) a wildfire is difficult to suppress

Slide 6

Key Weather Components

Temperature Humidity Wind Precipitation Pressure

Slide 7

Composition of the Atmosphere

Water vapour varies between 0 and 4%

Slide 8

Vertical Structure of the Atmosphere

The Troposphere
Generally the lowest 10-12 km in Victorian latitudes 75% of the overall mass of the atmosphere Temperature drops with height Where weather happens!

The Stratosphere
Stable, dry layer above the level of surface convective currents Temperature no longer falls with height Contains the ozone layer
Slide 9

Global Circulation
Global circulation describes atmospheric motion over the earth but what causes this?

Slide 10

Incoming Solar Radiation

Solar energy combined with the earths geometry drives the weather

Slide 11

Warm Air Rises

Heating air causes it to expand and become less dense A sample of (otherwise identical) air that is warmer than its surrounding environment will rise because it is less dense and therefore lighter than the air around it

Warm
Slide 12

Cool Air Sinks

Cooling air causes it to contract and become more dense A sample of (otherwise identical) air that is cooler than its surrounding environment will sink because it is more dense and therefore heavier than the air around it

Cold

Slide 13

Pressure at the Earths Surface

Variations in surface pressure result from differential solar heating

Rising air creates a relative void, resulting in low surface pressure

Sinking air creates a pile-up of mass and high surface pressure Supporting airflow is needed in the upper atmosphere to sustain these changes
Slide 14

Simplified Atmospheric Circulation

A uniform, non-rotating earth, warmed at the equator and cooled at the poles In reality this does not occur because:
The earth spins on its axis once every 24 hours There are seasonal variations in solar heating The earth does not posses a uniform surface or atmosphere

Slide 15

A Dynamic Earth
Daily and annual variations in solar heating

Surface features mountains, oceans, cities

Variations in the composition of the atmosphere

Slide 16

Coriolis Force
Coriolis force is an apparent deflection of the air from its path as dictated by the pressure gradient force when viewed by an observer on the earths surface

Slide 17

A Real Atmosphere
Real global circulation is due to:
Variations in solar heating Variations in the earths surface features and atmosphere Coriolis force

Slide 18

Typical Global Conditions February

Global map of average sea level pressure showing subtropical highs and equatorial low (ITCZ)

Slide 19

Typical Global Conditions August

Global map of average sea level pressure showing subtropical highs and equatorial low (ITCZ)

Slide 20

Pressure Gradient Force

The atmosphere tries to push air from high to low pressure Pressure Gradient Force

Slide 21

Synoptic Scale Winds in the Mid-latitudes

Air moves from high to low pressure and is deflected to the left by Coriolis Force. Eventually the two forces balance and the wind blows parallel to the isobars If you stand with your back to the wind in Australia the low pressure will be on your right
Slide 22

Wind Strength and Pressure Gradient

The closer together the isobars, the stronger the wind!

Slide 23

High and Low Pressure Centres

In the southern hemisphere, winds blow anticlockwise around highs and clockwise around lows because of the balance between Pressure Gradient Force, Coriolis Force and Centrifugal Force

Slide 24

The Influence of Friction

Friction acts in the opposite direction to surface winds this reduces the wind speed A force balance is reached where wind velocity is seen to veer towards the direction of lower pressure
Slide 25

High and Low Pressure Centres Under the Influence of Friction

The balance of forces causes air to be deflected away from the centre of highs and deflected towards the centre of lows

Slide 26

Wind and the Weather Map

Slide 27

Weather and High Pressure

Subsiding air tends to create more stable conditions a subsidence inversion can occur Temperature:
Dependent upon upstream airmass Tends to increase, especially if the high pressure centre moves to the east of Victoria

Cloud:
Low likelihood of cloud and precipitation Low cloud may become trapped under a subsidence inversion
Slide 28

Weather and Low Pressure

Rising air tends to create less stable conditions a subsidence inversion will erode Temperature:
Dependent upon upstream airmass Tends to decrease, especially following the passage of a cold front or low pressure trough

Cloud:
High chance of mid-level and convective cloud High chance of precipitation
Slide 29

Airmasses
Airmasses are classified according to their source origin. Consider the air upstream:
Is it continental, maritime, polar or tropical? Is it dry or moist, warm or cool? In some instances air from the Southern Ocean can be very dry

Consider how rapidly or slowly the airmass is moving Consider whether the air will be modified:
How will diurnal changes influence the air? Will the air be moving from water to land?
Slide 30

Summer Airmass Characteristics

Tropical Maritime Tropical Continental

Tropical Maritime

Southern Maritime Southern Maritime Southern Maritime

modified by TasmanSea

Slide 31

Winter Airmass Characteristics

Tropical Maritime

Southern Maritime Southern Maritime Polar Maritime

Slide 32

Polar Maritime

Southern Maritime

Ridges and Troughs

Ridge:
An elongated area of relatively higher pressure associated with anticyclonic flow Commonly extend from a high pressure system Typically bring light winds and warm, clear weather

Trough:
An elongated area of relatively lower pressure associated with cyclonic flow Commonly extend from a low pressure system Typically bring cool, unsettled weather and precipitation
Slide 33

Fronts
The boundary between airmasses of different densities is referred to as a front Four types of front are evident:
Cold Warm Occluded Stationary

Cold fronts are most common in SE Australia

Slide 34

Cold Front
A cold front is the boundary between a cold airmass moving towards a region of warmer air A backward sloping face forms as the cool, dense air slides underneath the warmer, lighter air ahead Warm air retains more moisture than cold air so as it is rapidly forced upwards, any moisture condenses out to form cloud and precipitation Strong and gusty winds, cloud, rainfall, thunderstorms and falling temperatures are typically experienced during the passage of a cold front
Slide 35

Profile of a Cold Front

Slide 36

Cold Fronts in Victoria

The typical weather changes associated with the passage of a cold front in Victoria are:
Strengthening and gusty northeasterly to northwesterly winds before the front Increasing evidence of instability such as cumulus cloud or developing thunderstorms A west to southwesterly wind change which can be quite abrupt and bring severe squalls A moderation of the wind speed and a clearing of the weather behind the front
Slide 37

Wind Changes
A wind change refers to a distinct shift of wind direction, greater than 30, where wind speeds before or after the change are 10 km/h or more

In Victoria, the passage of a cold front is often referred to as a wind change or just a change because these conditions are generally met

Slide 38

Cold Fronts, Wind Changes and Fire Behaviour

Cold fronts, or changes, have a major impact on fire behaviour:
Strong, gusty, hot and dry north to northwesterly winds prior to the change promote fast moving intense fires Lighting may ignite new fires It might be a dry change i.e. precipitation is not expected The west to southwesterly wind change may turn the east flank of the fire into the main fire front

Slide 39

Effect of a Wind Change on Fire Behaviour

Slide 40

Summary
The sun is the driving force behind the worlds weather Changes in air density create regions of high and low pressure Air will tend to move from high to low pressure Air flows anticlockwise around highs (anticyclones) and clockwise around lows (cyclones)

Slide 41

 Air will rise:

As it converges towards low pressure If it is less dense than the surrounding air If it is forced by a barrier or another airmass

Airmass characteristics can be determined from examination of the weather map. Fronts are the boundaries between airmasses of different densities Fire behaviour can alter dramatically during a wind change event
Slide 42

Fire Weather 1 Understanding Weather Charts

Ed. 1.0 Sept 2007

Session Goal
This training session will introduce and describe weather charts and their application A number of diagrams used in this presentation are taken from Bureau of Meteorology publications (copyright Commonwealth of Australia) and are used by permission. For more details see Fire Weather 1 Learning Manual

Slide 44

Learning Outcomes
This training session will cover five learning outcomes After completing this session you should understand:
the basic features depicted in a weather chart how to interpret a weather chart typical summer and winter weather patterns in Australia how to identify a day of severe fire danger from the synoptic map the three-dimensional nature of the atmosphere

Slide 45

Outline
1. Typical features of a weather chart 2. Interpreting a weather chart

3. Typical summer and winter weather patterns in Australia

4. Severe fire weather on the synoptic map 5. Three-dimensional nature of atmosphere

Slide 46

The Value of a Weather Chart

Weather charts or synoptic charts are very recognisable to most people Weather charts display past, current and forecast information for a particular region A large amount of material is contained within a weather map

Slide 47

Typical Features of a Weather Map

Slide 48

Isobars
Isobars indicate areas of constant atmospheric pressure in the same way that contours indicate areas of constant altitude on a land map

Slide 49

Ridges and High Pressure

High pressure zones are clearly visible Ridge axes are identified by a wavy line

Slide 50

Troughs and Low Pressure

Low pressure zones are clearly visible Trough axes are identified by a dashed line these are less clearly defined than ridge axes

Slide 51

Fronts on a Weather Map

Cold fronts are indicated by a solid triangle (blue on a coloured map) in the direction of the movement

Warm fronts are indicated by a solid semicircle (red on a coloured map) in the direction of the movement
Occluded fronts are indicated by alternating solid semicircles and triangles (purple on a coloured map) in the direction of movement Stationary fronts are indicated by a solid line alternated with triangles (blue on a coloured map) towards the warmer air and semicircles (red on a coloured map) towards the colder air
Slide 52

Examples of Fronts on a Weather Map

Slide 53

Typical Summer Weather Patterns in Australia

The mean path of summer high pressure centres across southern Australia as a result of global circulation

Slide 54

Summer Weather Pattern 1: Easterly Dip

A high pressure centre over the Bight directs southeasterly winds over Victoria and NSW, whilst a low over Queensland reinforces those easterlies

Victoria is likely to experience cool and moist conditions

Slide 55

Summer Weather Pattern 2: Summer Heatwave

The Summer Heatwave results from a ridge associated with a blocking high pressure system over the Tasman Sea Victoria is likely to experience fine and hot weather

Slide 56

Typical Winter Weather Patterns in Australia

The mean path of winter high pressure centres across southern Australia as a result of global circulation

Slide 57

Winter Weather Pattern: Winter High

A high pressure centre over eastern Australia with an associated ridge extending westwards Stable, cold and clear conditions would be experienced as frontal activity is restricted

Slide 58

Fire Weather and the Synoptic Map

A day in which severe fire danger may occur can be predicted when specific synoptic patterns are known and identified on the forecast weather chart

Slide 59

A Three-Dimensional Atmosphere
Most weather maps display sea level pressure when in reality the atmosphere is threedimensional Upper level charts are available that show meteorological information above ground level
300 hPa map
Slide 60

Atmospheric Thickness
Thickness refers to the height of the layer between 1000 hPa (~sea level) and 500 hPa in metres or decametres
If the column of air is heated, it expands and the height increases If the column of air is cooled, it contracts and the height decreases
Slide 61

Thickness is therefore a measure of how warm or cold the atmosphere is between 1000 hPa and 500 hPa this can be related to ground level conditions

The warmer the 1000 hPa to 500 hPa layer, the higher the temperature is likely to be at ground level

Slide 62

Thickness on a Weather Chart

Thickness is indicated by dashed lines in metres

Slide 63

Summary
Features of a weather map include areas of high and low pressure, ridges, troughs, and fronts Synoptic charts give an indication of the weather through applying the concepts of global circulation and airmass characteristics Typical seasonal weather patterns exist in Australia

An day of severe fire weather can often be predicted from a synoptic map
Atmospheric thickness gives an indication of the expected temperature at the earths surface
Slide 64

Fire Weather 1 Satellite and Radar Interpretation

Ed. 1.0 Sept 2007

Session Goal
This session will introduce the use of satellite and radar imagery in meteorology and discuss its interpretation A number of diagrams used in this presentation are taken from Bureau of Meteorology publications (copyright Commonwealth of Australia) and are used with their permission Satellite images are credited where appropriate

Slide 66

Learning Outcomes
This training session will cover two learning outcomes After completing this session you should understand:
the different types of satellite and radar images what meteorological features are present on a satellite or radar image

Slide 67

Outline
1. Introduction to remote sensing 2. Satellite imagery:
Infrared Visible Water vapour

3. Other uses of satellite technology

4. Radar imagery

Slide 68

Remote Sensing in Meteorology

Remote sensing is the art of obtaining information about an object without physical contact Remote sensing techniques:
Allow data to be obtained from gaps between the fixed Automatic Weather Stations Provide data about the upper atmosphere Provide holistic information i.e. complete weather systems can be seen on a single image

Passive and active remote sensing is available

Slide 69

Satellite Imagery
Passive satellite imagery is available in three forms:
Infrared Visible Water vapour

These are viewable as a single image or as a continuous loop

Slide 70

Infrared Satellite Imagery

Infrared images are pictures of the earth and atmosphere taken in the infrared part of the electromagnetic spectrum they measure heat leaving the earth and atmosphere In an infrared image, brighter areas represent colder features - higher cloud is colder than lower cloud and will therefore appear brighter Colour enhancements aid interpretation Infrared images are available 24 hours a day

Slide 71

Example of Infrared Satellite Imagery

Images originally processed by the Bureau of Meteorology from a geostationary satellite operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency

Slide 72

Visible Satellite Imagery

Visible images are created by measuring the reflected solar radiation from the earth and atmosphere in the visible spectrum i.e. like a normal photograph Land and water are generally dark grey to black whereas clouds are typically white or light grey Greater reflection is evident for thicker clouds and they appear brighter on visible satellite images It can be difficult to discern between clouds at different altitudes

Visible images are unavailable during the night

Slide 73

Example of Visible Satellite Imagery

Image originally processed by the Bureau of Meteorology from a geostationary satellite operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency

Slide 74

Water Vapour Satellite Imagery

Water vapour images indicate moisture in the upper atmosphere (mainly upwards of 4 km above sea level) They also provide information on upper level circulation that may not be apparent on other satellite imagery Dry air is typically shown by darker colours whereas more moist conditions are lighter and brighter

Slide 75

Example of Water Vapour Satellite Imagery

Image originally processed by the Bureau of Meteorology from a geostationary satellite operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency

Slide 76

Other Uses of Satellite Technology

Satellites can detect more than just meteorological information:
smoke plumes dust storms

Victorian Alpine Fires 2003 smoke plume image originally processed by the Bureau of Meteorology from a polar orbiting satellite operated by the US NOAA

Slide 77

Visible dust storm over eastern Australia on 23rd October 2002 image originally processed by the Bureau of Meteorology from a polar orbiting satellite operated by the Chinese Meteorological Administration
Slide 78

Radar Imagery
Radar works by a transmitter emitting a pulse of radio waves into the atmosphere, part of which is scattered back by rain droplets and other debris

The location and intensity of precipitation is determined by the time taken for the scattered pulses to return to the receiver and the power with which they return: quicker and more intensely returned pulses indicate heavier precipitation
A horizontal map is produced of where rain is falling and an indication of how heavily it is falling
Slide 79

Example of Radar Imagery

Slide 80

Radar Interpretation
Radar interpretation can be difficult:
The radar beam widens and increases in altitude with increasing distance from the source, and therefore echo intensity is reduced and it can miss rainfall at increasing distances from the radar installation. Rainfall detected at a high level may evaporate before hitting the ground Radar reflectivity is strongly dependent on the diameter of raindrops rather than the amount of raindrops A shadow effect can occur e.g. a thunderstorm cell close to the installation can shield the area of atmosphere in its wake A lack of large droplets may result in the underestimation of drizzle intensity It is possible for the radar to pick up insect swarms or smoke plumes from major fires
Slide 81

Summary
Remotely sensed imagery fills the gaps between fixed Automatic Weather Stations and is holistic Infrared, visible and water vapour satellite imagery is available in single image or continuous loop format Radar images are useful in identifying precipitation in terms of location and intensity, however a number of limitations can reduce the accuracy Remotely sensed imagery assists in the identification of features such as cold fronts, dry air, rainbands, showers and thunderstorms
Slide 82

Fire Weather 1 Local Weather Effects

Ed. 1.0 Sept 2007

Session Goal
This session will introduce several local weather effects that need to be considered in conjunction with the synoptic weather situation when analysing fire behaviour A number of diagrams used in this presentation are taken or adapted from Bureau of Meteorology publications (copyright Commonwealth of Australia) and are used with their permission. For more details see Fire Weather 1 Learning Manual

Slide 84

Learning outcomes
This training session will cover three learning outcomes

After completing this session you should be able to explain:

several local weather effects situations in which local weather effects may develop how local weather effects may affect a fire

Slide 85

Outline
1. Sea/land influenced winds 2. Mountain and valley winds 3. Thunderstorm outflow 4. Fire induced effects 5. Synoptic weather influences

Slide 86

Weather on a Local Scale

Small-scale meteorological phenomena that impact a particular area in isolation are referred to as local weather effects
In many instances local weather effects can dominate over large-scale conditions e.g. during light synoptic winds Local weather effects can have a significant impact on fire behaviour wildfires often become erratic and unpredictable

Slide 87

Sea Breeze
During the day the land warms more quickly than the water Air above the land warms, expands and rises causing surface low pressure Cooler and more moist air in the high pressure region over the water flows onshore
Slide 88

Land Breeze
At night the land cools more quickly than the water Air above the land cools, and the dense air sinks creating a surface high pressure region Air flows from the land to the low pressure region over the water
Slide 89

Mountain and Valley Winds

Mountain and valley winds are caused by three processes:
Wind flow around and between obstacles Wind flow over obstacles Surface heating and cooling

Wind flow is very sensitive to topography and local weather effects in upland terrain can have a significant impact on fire behaviour

Slide 90

Wind Flow Around and Between Obstacles

Air will attempt to flow around isolated obstacles rather than over them this is especially the case in stable atmospheric conditions as the air is unable to rise Under such conditions the wind is strongest and most turbulent on the lower mountain sides and is also funnelled through gaps in the ranges

Slide 91

Eddy Formation
If the terrain or obstacle is rough, airflow downwind near ground level can become more turbulent and a wake may be created where airflow is lighter but gustier in nature An eddy can form in the lee side of the hill, with flows opposite to the general wind direction

Plan view Plan view

Slide 92

Wind Channelling
Wind can become directionally channelled by ridges and valleys under both light and strong wind conditions Wind speed increases due to funnelling

Plan view

Slide 93

Wind Flow Over Obstacles

If air is unable to flow around an obstacle or the atmosphere is unstable it will be forced to rise and cross the obstacle in its path Top acceleration and mountain waves can occur when airflow passes over a region of steep topography If airflow encounters a large obstacle in its path (such as a mountain):
1. The flow can remain as a single airflow (laminar flow) as it passes over the obstacle, or 2. The flow can become turbulent
Slide 94

Top Acceleration
If the flow remains laminar, and there is a stable layer of air above the obstacle, wind speed increases as the top of the obstacle is approached this is top acceleration
Side view

Slide 95

Mountain Waves
If airflow becomes turbulent, eddies and mountain waves can form

Mountain waves typically occur when the wind forced over a mountain increases in speed with height in a mildly unstable atmosphere
In such cases, the air is forced up and the disturbance on the lee side forms a series of wavelike troughs and peaks that are sometimes recognisable by lenticular clouds Rotors also occur due to mountain waves and are a closed parcel of air rotating along an axis parallel to the mountain range but somewhat downwind
Slide 96

In complex terrain, a decoupling between the air within and above the valley rim can occur two separate flow systems can become evident
Side view

Slide 97

Up-Slope and Down-Slope Winds

A number of up-slope and down-slope local weather effects can occur in regions of undulating terrain due to heating or cooling of the air These include:
Foehn Katabatic Anabatic

Under these conditions erratic and unpredictable fire behaviour is likely, especially for up-slope winds where preheating effects to fuel upstream can increase fire intensity and rate of spread
Slide 98

Foehn Wind
As a moist air parcel moves up-slope it cools and contracts Water vapour will condense and is released. This process adds heat to the environment latent heat of condensation Air that descends is warmer and drier a Foehn wind Typically requires moist winds that increase in speed with height
Slide 99

Side view

Katabatic Wind
The earth cools at night as it emits longwave radiation

The layer of air directly above the ground also cools and is then cooler than a layer of air at higher altitudes or a layer at the same altitude but away from the slope
This cooler and denser slab of air moves down-slope under the influence of gravity forming a katabatic wind or drainage flow Katabatic winds are strongest when the sky is clear, in steep terrain where vegetation is sparse, and when synoptic winds are light
Slide 100

Anabatic Winds
During the day incoming solar radiation warms the earths surface The layer of air directly above this warms more than a layer of air at higher altitudes or a layer at a similar altitude but further from the slope The warmer and less dense air rises and creates a void that tends to draw in air from lower down the slope Anabatic winds are strongest when the sky is clear, in steep terrain where vegetation is sparse, in areas that receive greater amounts of sunlight and when synoptic winds are light Anabatic winds are typically stronger than Katabatic flows
Slide 101

Anabatic/Katabatic Valley Systems

A decoupling between the air within and above the valley can occur In some instances upvalley anabatic winds can dominate during the day and down-valley katabatic winds can dominate during the evening despite a strong synoptic flow above
Slide 102

The Influence of Cloud on Local Weather Effects

Many local weather effects result from differential solar heating

Increased daytime cloud density will reduce the intensity of incoming solar radiation, and will impede the development of local weather effects driven by heating such as the sea breeze or anabatic wind Increased nocturnal cloud levels will reduce the potential for katabatic and land breeze effects to occur as the earths surface will cool at a lower rate

Slide 103

Thunderstorm Outflow
If moist air rises to great heights in an unstable atmosphere due to convection, it will condense. If it continues to rise, towering cumulonimbus clouds will form creating a thunderstorm cell Accompanying the column formation is strong up and down drafts Cool dense air that sinks out of a thunderstorm (a down draft) diverges rapidly when it hits the ground thunderstorm outflow
Slide 104

Exercise I
Consider what local effects may take place here:
Morwell Yarram McAllister River Valley Mt Baw Baw

Slide 105

Exercise II
Topographic maps can be used to identify possible local effects What local effects might take place around the Grampians?

Slide 106

Fire Induced Effects

A fire itself can impact on the local weather if it is of sufficient size. Smoke columns typically carry more moisture than the surrounding air and this is mainly due to the effects of combustion The rising plume of smoke can act as an immoveable object to the synoptic wind flow and this can cause erratic fire behaviour in its wake Fires can also generate thunderstorms and lightning on some occasions lightning activity can cause new starts downwind, making suppression even more difficult
Slide 107

Synoptic Weather Influences Weak Pressure Gradients

A weak pressure gradient with clear skies will allow which local effects to develop?

Slide 108

Synoptic Weather Influences Strong Pressure Gradients

A strong pressure gradient will allow which local effects to develop?

Slide 109

Summary
A number of different local weather effects exist that encourage unpredictable fire behaviour

Fires can influence the local environment by generating their own weather
Understanding the relationship between synoptic conditions and local weather effects is essential to successful fire management

Slide 110

Fire Weather 1 Weather and Fire Danger Indices

Ed. 1.0 Sept 2007

Session Goal
This session will discuss how to interpret the fire danger rating system used in Bureau of Meteorology fire weather forecasts

A number of diagrams used in this presentation are taken from Bureau of Meteorology publications (copyright Commonwealth of Australia) and are used by permission. For more details see Fire Weather 1 Learning Manual

Slide 112

Learning Outcomes
This training session will cover two learning outcomes After completing this session you should be able to explain:
the inputs into the Fire Danger Index (FDI) the FDI / Fire Danger Rating (FDR) system and how it is used

Slide 113

Outline
1. What is fire danger? 2. Forest Fire Danger Index

3. Grassland Fire Danger Index

4. Weather associated with an extreme FDI day

Slide 114

What is Fire Danger?

Fire danger is a measure of the difficulty in controlling or suppressing a wildfire and is a function of fuel state and weather

Fire danger is quantified using a numerical FDI to which a descriptive FDR is attached, where higher values represent a higher level of danger
FDI values are typically calculated in two situations:
As part of routine fire weather forecasting To predict the behaviour of a going wildfire

Slide 115

Fire Danger Index

FDI is calculated with the following input variables:
Fuel state Temperature Humidity Wind speed

For the following environments:

Forests Grassland

Slide 116

McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI)

McArthur FFDI determines the difficulty of fire suppression due to:
Drought Factor (a measure of forest fuel availability) Temperature Relative humidity Average wind speed (at 10m height)

Slide 117

Drought Factor
DF estimates the proportion (in tenths) of the fine fuels (<6mm diameter) in a forest that will burn in a fire where:
DF = 0 implies that all fuels are wet (i.e. fires will not burn) DF = 5 implies that half the fine fuel will burn DF = 10 represents a situation where all fuels are dry and ready to burn

Slide 118

Forest Fire Danger System

The descriptive forest fire danger system is defined as follows: FDR Low Moderate High Very high Extreme FFDI 04 5 11 12 23 24 49 50 +

The value for FFDI is capped at 100, however higher values are possible on rare occasions

Fires with an FFDI above 50 typically become weather dominated

Slide 119

How Variables Impact FFDI

Drought Factor Temperature Relative humidity Wind speed = = = = FFDI FFDI FFDI FFDI

Slide 120

Diurnal Variation of FFDI

Slide 121

FFDI Assumptions
Terrain aspect or slope is not taken into account An available fuel amount of 12.5 tonnes per hectare is assumed (indicated on the back of the meter) and fuel loads can be heavier than this The FFDI model assumes moderate instability. Fire behaviour in elevated fuels may be underestimated, and extreme days will often be more unstable than the model assumes The FFDI model assumes a uniform canopy interception of sunlight The FFDI model assumes full sunlight
Slide 122

McArthur Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI)

McArthur GFDI determines the difficulty of fire suppression due to:
Curing (a measure of forest fuel availability) Temperature Relative humidity Average wind speed (at 10m height)

Slide 123

Curing
Most grasses have a natural life cycle in which plants mature annually, and die or become dormant The moisture content of the grass is lost seasonally in the drying or curing process Values for curing are expressed as the percentage of dry (dead) grass 0% cured (completely green) to 100% cured (completely dead)

Slide 124

GFDI System
The descriptive grassland fire danger system is as follows:
FDR Low Moderate High Very high Extreme GFDI 02 37 8 19 20 49 50 +

GFDI values can reach over 100 on rare occasions, particularly if wind speed and curing is high Fires with an GFDI above 50 typically become weather dominated
Slide 125

How Variables Impact GFDI

Curing Temperature Relative humidity Wind speed = = = = GFDI GFDI GFDI GFDI

Slide 126

Diurnal Variation of GFDI

Slide 127

GFDI Assumptions
Aspect or slope is not taken into account Atmospheric instability is not taken into account

Slide 128

Extreme FDI Conditions

In many instances, days where fire danger is severe will experience FFDI or GFDI values of 50 or more i.e. fire danger will reach extreme on the McArthur scale

If the synoptic chart implies a day of severe or extreme fire danger, then this will often be confirmed upon examination of the FDI values
Forecast values of extreme FDI are the strongest reason for a Total Fire Ban declaration

Slide 129

Weather Associated With an Extreme FDI Day

Extreme FDI values are associated with a number of synoptic situations including:
A dry low pressure system directing strong and gusty north, west or northwesterly winds across the state A high pressure system directing hot and dry northerly winds over the state A vigorous cold front approaching a strong high pressure region directing hot and dry northerly winds across the state before a gusty southwesterly wind change

Slide 130

Summary
Fire danger is a measure of the difficulty in controlling or suppressing a fire There are two fire danger indices used in Victoria:
FFDI and GFDI

Fire danger is used as a basis for fire agency preparedness, fire behaviour prediction, and public safety awareness FDI / FDR varies hourly and daily An extreme FDI day can occur under a number of synoptic conditions
Slide 131

Fire Weather 1

Bureau of Meteorology Products and Services

Ed. 1.0 Sept 2007

Session Goal
This session will discuss how to access and interpret Bureau of Meteorology fire weather products and services A number of diagrams used in this presentation are taken from Bureau of Meteorology publications (copyright Commonwealth of Australia) and are used with their permission. For more details see Fire Weather 1 Learning Manual

Slide 133

Learning Outcomes
This training session will cover three learning outcomes. After completing this session you should understand:
how to access the Bureau of Meteorology Registered User webpage how to access numerous weather products and services available on the Bureau of Meteorology Registered User webpage the information contained in the various fire weather products issued by the Bureau of Meteorology

Slide 134

Outline
1. Accessing the Bureau of Meteorology public website 2. Registered User page 3. Fire weather products 4. Other information available on the website

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Weather on the Web

The Bureau of Meteorology (Bureau) public website is accessed through www.bom.gov.au

To access the Registered User webpage click on the link.

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Login to the Registered User Webpage

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Enter Username and Password

Four different Registered User pages exist:
Username bomw0025: CFA HQ and regions Username bomw0026: CFA volunteers Username bomw0027: DSE HQ and regions Username bomw0028: General fire weather

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Registered User webpage

The Registered User webpage contains a large amount of data under the following headings:
Synoptic Charts Forecasts and Warnings Observations Satellite Imagery Radar Computer Model Diagnostics Climate Information

Forecasts and Warnings includes products prepared for fire management agencies.
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Fire Weather Products

The Bureau produces a number of fire weather products specifically for fire management agencies:
Fire Weather Estimates Extended Fire Weather Estimates Fire Weather Briefing Fire Weather Outlook Spot Fire Forecast / Prescribed Burn Forecast Wind Change Chart Thunderstorm Forecast
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Fire Weather Estimates

Fire Weather Estimates are issued twice daily during the fire season at:
0630h for the current day and, 1645h for the following day

Fire Weather Estimates are issued for 25 representative locations around Victoria in nine weather districts
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For each of the 25 locations the following fields are predicted for maximum temperature time:
Maximum temperature (C) Relative humidity (%) Wind direction Wind speed and gust (km/h) FFDI (using a calculated Drought Factor) GFDI (using an observed Curing value) Wind change time and wind strength (if appropriate)
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For each of the nine districts the following fields are predicted for maximum temperature time: Lightning Activity Level (LAL; 0 = nil, 1 = one or two, 2 = a few, 3 = numerous strikes over a district) Rain (No = less than 5mm, Yes = greater than 5mm over an entire district during the 24 hour period from 0900h on the forecast day) Height of the mixing depth above sea level (mix, metres) Upper level wind direction and strength (at 1000 to 2000 metres above mean sea level; km/h) FDI above 35 (approximate time when FDI is above 35, for * locations if occurring four hours or more before or after maximum temperature time)
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Summary comments are also provided to complement the numerical predictions

Mallee district sample

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Extended Fire Weather Estimates

At 1715h each day during the fire season a set of Extended Fire Weather Estimates (with a reduced number of locations and meteorological parameters) is issued for an additional three days beyond the next-day forecast

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Fire Weather Briefing

At 1045h each day during the fire season a written Fire Weather Briefing is issued

The Fire Weather Briefing:

Outlines any variations to the estimates issued earlier that day at 0630hrs Provides more detail about the days weather Gives a summary of the expected weather over the next few days

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Fire Weather Outlook

At 1650h each day during the fire season the Fire Weather Outlook is issued which provides synoptic charts and comments regarding the expected weather conditions for the following four days

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Spot Fire / Prescribed Burn Forecast

A Spot Fire / Prescribed Burn Forecast for the local weather conditions associated with a fire can be requested at any time during the year Spot Fire/Prescribed Burn Forecasts cover a short-term forecast period and include:
Predictions for temperature, RH and wind speed at ground and upper levels in three hourly time steps for a nine hour period, and an outlook for the following 12 hours A written description and alternative scenarios

Spot Fire/Prescribed Burn Forecasts have the highest priority behind Wind Change Charts
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Thunderstorm Forecast
A Thunderstorm Forecast is issued for the state of Victoria by 1130h each day indicating areas of likely thunderstorm activity

This chart is updated when applicable

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Wind Change Chart

A Wind Change Chart is issued on days where a significant wind change is expected to cross the state and the fire danger is expected to be very high or extreme This chart plots the current position of the wind change and the predicted position in three-hour increments, and indicates the wind speed and direction before and behind the change The chart is updated every three hours until the change either moves out of the state or has weakened, to such an extent, that it is no longer considered to be a threat
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Additional website information

The Registered User webpage also contains supplementary weather information, including:
Synoptic charts Observations Satellite imagery Radar Computer Model Diagnostics (model data and predicted meteograms for selected locations across Victoria) Climate information Links
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Summary
The Bureau public website provides access to a range of weather products and services:
Detailed products for fire management agencies can be accessed from the Registered User section A number of products are regularly issued to fire management agencies during the fire season Wind Change Charts and Spot Fire Forecasts assume the highest priority Spot Fire / Prescribed Burn Forecasts and Thunderstorm Forecasts are issued all year
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Fire Weather 1 Weather Observations on the Fire Ground

Ed. 1.0 Sept 2007

Session Goal
This training session will introduce the importance of being aware of local weather conditions as well as providing guidance on how to obtain a simple weather observation A number of diagrams used in this presentation are taken from Bureau of Meteorology publications (copyright Commonwealth of Australia) and are used by permission. For more details see Fire Weather 1 Learning Manual

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Learning Outcomes
This training session will cover three learning outcomes After completing this session you should be able to explain:
the suitable environmental conditions in which to take weather observations how to undertake and interpret basic sky observations how to undertake and interpret observations of wind speed and direction

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Outline
1. Being aware of the weather 2. Taking a weather observation cloud

3. Taking a weather observation visibility

4. Taking a weather observation wind speed and direction 5. Taking a weather observation precipitation and humidity 6. Weather Observation Activity assessed component of Fire Weather 1
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Being Aware of the Weather

Weather has a major impact on fire behaviour, and fire ground safety can be dependent on interpreting visual weather clues

A lack of awareness of the weather can have a serious and detrimental effect on fire management and suppression activities, and can jeopardise firefighter safety

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Taking a Weather Observation

Local weather observations need to be taken of the general environmental conditions unaffected by a fire otherwise the data recorded may not be representative of the surrounding area Weather observations must be taken to a set standard in order for them to be referenced and compared to past and future observations

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When taking a weather observation on a fire ground:

Take the observation away from the fire line Take the observation upwind of the fire and smoke plume in an unburnt area Take the observation in a clear and well exposed area away from trees or the forest canopy Ideally take the observation in an elevated location

However, the observation site should reflect the type of terrain in which the fire is currently burning A fire ground weather observation should include cloud, wind and visibility
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Cloud Observations
Cloud observations should include the cloud type and amount as a minimum Cloud type:
Stratiform or Cumuliform

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Stratiform Clouds
Stratiform clouds:
Are generally flat in appearance and of low to medium height Typically display extensive horizontal rather than vertical development Can give rise to precipitation that is more continuous rather than showery Stratiform clouds can be a precursor to a coming weather change e.g. an approaching frontal passage
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Cumuliform Clouds
Cumuliform clouds:
Are generally heaped in appearance and of low to medium height; however cumulonimbus can stretch the height of the troposphere Display greater vertical rather than horizontal development indicating convective activity and an unstable atmosphere Showers and thunderstorms are more likely to occur from cumuliform clouds

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Cloud Amount
Cloud amount is estimated in eighths (or oktas) although it is perhaps simpler to record on the fire ground as:
Clear (no cloud) Partly cloudy (cloud cover of less than 50%) Mostly cloudy (50% to less than full cloud cover) Overcast (full cloud cover)

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Visibility
Visibility can be determined by comparing visual estimations with a map indicating the distance to known points

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Wind Speed Observations Mechanical

1. Obtaining wind speed observations with an anemometer is typically done at about two metres, with the anemometer held into the wind it can then be converted to a 10m wind speed 2. The anemometer should be held for ten minutes to get an average wind speed and also a maximum gust
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Wind Speed Observations Visual

Wind speed is typically measured using an instrument such as an anemometer, however visual indicators can also be used if instrumentation is not available

Visual indicators include:

Watching cloud movement as the behaviour of clouds will give an indication of wind conditions at that particular altitude Noting the speed of fire / smoke movement Watching the movement of trees and vegetation use the Beaufort Scale
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Beaufort scale

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Wind Direction
Wind direction can be estimated using a vane Without using specialist equipment wind direction can be obtained using a compass or map and the following methods:
Analysing the direction of fire, smoke or cloud movement Analysing the directional movement of trees and other foliage

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Factors to Consider When Taking Wind Observations

Convection:
Any high based cumuliform cloud has the potential to produce gusty and erratic wind behaviour

Inversion:
A dramatic increase in wind speed can result from the breakdown of the overnight inversion

Diurnal variations in wind speed behaviour:

Wind speed and direction fluctuates significantly throughout the day - take an observation over a ten minute time period

Height of observation:
Try and take the observation at a height of 10m
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Precipitation and Humidity

It is quite straightforward to detect precipitation but it must not be assumed that the presence of rain means that relative humidity has reached 100%

Relative humidity only reaches 100% in clouds, and the presence of fog is the only clear indicator that humidity at ground level has reached 100%

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Weather Observation Activity

This is an assessed component of the FW1 course 1. Use the Bureau Registered User webpage to access the forecast and current weather conditions, and any current warnings for the local area 2. Go outside and take a local weather observation using the assessment sheet estimate:
Temperature and humidity Wind direction and speed using the Beaufort scale Height, amount and type Evidence of an approaching wind change
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3. Complete the worksheet

Summary
The safety of fire management personnel on the fire ground is dependent on an awareness and understanding of the local weather conditions

Fire behaviour can be predicted through understanding local meteorological conditions by taking a weather observation

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