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Implementing Social Change & Resilience Economics Uses of the COAST Approach to Catalyze Action:
Helping Communities and Stakeholders Decide on Economically Viable Sea Level and Storm Surge Adaptation Strategies with the COAST software tool
Jonathan T. Lockman, AICP Vice President of Environmental Planning March 8, 2013 1:30 PM
What is COAST?
COastal
In the Spring of 2012, Dr. Sam Merrill, Director of the New England EFC at the Muskie School, created Catalysis Adaptation Partners, to spread the use of the Coast Approach beyond Maine and New England.
Samuel Merrill, PhD President COAST developer
http://www.catalysisadaptation.com
The word catalysis comes from chemistry. To catalyze means to create a reaction by bringing things together; we are experts in catalyzing local adaptation to sea level rise and storm surge, by bringing together innovative technology with tailored community engagement processes.
SOCIAL
Social + Political + Economic Factors = Force for Action
ACTION
POLITICAL
ECONOMIC
Helping Communities Decide on Sea Level and Storm Surge Adaptation Strategies with the COAST software tool
COAST is flexible; it can provide cost-benefit analysis for many candidate adaptation actions to protect a diversity of vulnerable assets, staged over time. Different scenarios for sea level rise and storm surge can be inputted in to the model, after stakeholder engagement. Stakeholder engagement delivers social buy-in. Vulnerabilities to damage are mapped and quantified based on the scenarios. Costs of adaptation strategies are estimated. The software will generate prediction of cumulative expected damages avoided over time, with different strategies providing a cost benefit analysis.
There are only four adaptation options: 1) Do nothing (usually = remain in denial) 2) Fortify assets 3) Accommodate higher water levels 4) Relocate assets
There are only four options: 1) Do nothing (usually = remain in denial) 2) Fortify assets 3) Accommodate higher water levels 4) Relocate assets
COAST is a tool and approach to help evaluate costs and benefits of these options.
1. Engage Stakeholders to Select Different Scenarios for Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge.
71
63 55 47 40
32
24 16 8 0
Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009) Global sea level linked to global temperature. PNAS 106, 2152721532.
2. Provide a Vulnerability Assessment with Cumulative Expected Damage Estimates Over Time for a No Action Scenario of Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge
Albany
Kingston
To Predict Future Damage to Real Estate You Need a Tax Parcel Map with Assessed Values
Then you need to input predicted flood heights from the 10 year, 25 year, 50 year, 100 year, and 500 year storms, from your FEMA flood insurance study or whatever youve got
Then you need to input the scenarios of sea level rise you believe will be added to the storm floods over time
Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009) Global sea level linked to global temperature. PNAS 106, 2152721532.
COAST Model for City of Kingston - Modeled Water Levels and Vulnerability Assessment
Results
Predicted COAST Elevation Model of of Flood Sea COAST Height Level Model from Rise Total FEMA Above Flood Flood MHHW Elevatio Insurance in 2013 n for Study, Selected Each 2007 by Scenario NAVD88 Kingston NAVD 88 (ft.)1 (in./ft)2 (ft.) 6.0 8.2 6.0 8.2 6.0 8.2 6.0 8.2 6.0 0 0 0 0 6.0 8.2 7.7 9.9 9.0 11.2 8.8 11.0 11.7 COAST Model COAST Model COAST Model Expected Expected Percent of Damage to the Damage to the COAST Model Cumulative Expected Value of Value of Cumulative Damage All Buildings & Waste Water Expected Damage to the Value of Improvements Treatment Plant to the Value of All Buildings & From Only All Buildings & Improvements This Single From Improvements From 2013 to Storm Incident This Single Storm From Scenario Year in the Incident in the All Storms, 2013 to Attributable to Scenario Year Scenario Year Scenario Year Sea Level Rise Only ($ Million) ($ Million) ($ Million)3 (Percent)3 12.0 21.7 18.8 24.7 22.0 29.5 21.9 27.5 29.7 8.7 16.8 14.4 18.8 16.8 22.2 16.8 20.6 22.2 n/a n/a 69.0 69.0 73.5 73.5 82.7 82.7 88.3 n/a n/a 26.8% 26.8% 31.7% 31.7% 28.6% 28.6% 34.8%
Storm Intensit Sea y Level (return Rise period Scenari in Year o years) 1 2013 No SLR 10 yr 2 2013 No SLR 100 yr 3 2060 Lo SLR 10 yr 4 2060 Lo SLR 100 yr 5 2060 Hi SLR 10 yr 6 2060 Hi SLR 100 yr 7 2100 Lo SLR 10 yr 8 2100 Lo SLR 100 yr 9 2100 Hi SLR 10 yr 10 2100 Hi SLR 100 yr
1Tidal 2Elevation
20 1.67 20 1.67 36 36 3 3
8.2
68 5.67
13.9
34.5
24.8
88.3
34.8%
Date Run: 03-03-2013
state is included in FEMA FIS predicted flood elevations for the 10 year and 100 year storms. of Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) in year 2013 is 3.0 feet (NAVD 88).
Lost Value of Buildings and/or Improvements to Land For Flooding Scenario #7, Flood Height: 8.8 ft. (NAVD 88) Year 2100, With Low Sea Level Rise and a 10-year Storm 10% Probability of Occurrence in Any Given Year Total Damage for this Event: Damage to Wastewater Treatment Plant: $21.9 Million $16.8 Million
Lost Value Due to Sea Level Rise Lost Value Due to Sea Level Rise + Storm Surge
Cumulative Expected Damages by 21 With Low Sea Level Rise = $82.7 Million
West Strand Street Rondout Landing Area, Kingston, NY COAST Output Relative Height of Blue Boxes Indicates Predicted Dollar Damages to Buildings and Improvements
JAF Partners Inc. @1 Broadway Height of Blue Box Indicates Predicted Damages to Buildings and Improvements Year 2060, Scenario 6:100-yr Year 2060, Storm, 100-yr Hi SLR, Storm, Height Hi SLR, = 14.2 Height ft NAVD = 14.2 88 ft NAVD 88
PrintKey Acreage ADDRESS_NU ADDRESS_NA PRIOR_PC NEW_PC OWNER_1 STREET CITY_STATE ZIP_CODE BOOK PAGE PR_TOTAL_A PR_LAND_AV ZONING NO_BEDS NO_BATHS bldgvalue RawDepth Depth Damage Extrusion
56.43-5-40 0.12392824 1 BROADWAY 482 482 JAF Partners Inc 30 Broadway Kingston NY 12401 01512 00355 1012000 169000 RT 0 0 843000 2.151024288 2.151024288 157897.134100422 16.78971341
JAF Partners Inc. @1 Broadway Height of Blue Box Indicates Predicted Damages to Buildings and Improvements
Year 2060, Scenario 6:100-yr Year 2060, Storm, 100-yr Hi SLR, Storm, Height Hi SLR, = 14.2 Height ft NAVD = 14.2 88 ft NAVD 88
PrintKey Acreage ADDRESS_NU ADDRESS_NA PRIOR_PC NEW_PC OWNER_1 STREET CITY_STATE ZIP_CODE BOOK PAGE PR_TOTAL_A PR_LAND_AV ZONING NO_BEDS NO_BATHS bldgvalue RawDepth Depth Damage Extrusion
56.43-5-40 0.12392824 1 BROADWAY 482 482 JAF Partners Inc 30 Broadway Kingston NY 12401 01512 00355 1012000 169000 RT 0 0 843000 2.151024288 2.151024288 157897.134100422 16.78971341
Depth: 2.2 feet JAF Partners Inc. @1 Broadway Height of Blue Box Indicates Predicted Damages to Buildings and Improvements
Year 2060, Scenario 6:100-yr Year 2060, Storm, 100-yr Hi SLR, Storm, Height Hi SLR, = 14.2 Height ft NAVD = 14.2 88 ft NAVD 88
PrintKey Acreage ADDRESS_NU ADDRESS_NA PRIOR_PC NEW_PC OWNER_1 STREET CITY_STATE ZIP_CODE BOOK PAGE PR_TOTAL_A PR_LAND_AV ZONING NO_BEDS NO_BATHS bldgvalue RawDepth Depth Damage Extrusion
56.43-5-40 0.12392824 1 BROADWAY 482 482 JAF Partners Inc 30 Broadway Kingston NY 12401 01512 00355 1012000 169000 RT 0 0 843000 2.151024288 2.151024288 157897.134100422 16.78971341
Damage: $158K
JAF Partners Inc. @1 Broadway Height of Blue Box Indicates Predicted Damages to Buildings and Improvements
Year 2060, Scenario 6:100-yr Year 2060, Storm, 100-yr Hi SLR, Storm, Height Hi SLR, = 14.2 Height ft NAVD = 14.2 88 ft NAVD 88
COAST Model Output Can Be Easily Used by the Community All output files are in Google Earth format, and can be easily distributed. Google Earth is available as a free download usable on a variety of operating systems. Friends can share the files and use them at home to show others. Users can fly through the community to any location and look up potential flood depths and damages.
telecommunications)
3. Select Candidate Adaptation Actions to Protect from Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge, Staged Over Time, and Estimate the Costs of Each Action 4. Perform a Cost Benefit Analysis of Adaptation Strategies
Stamford, CT USACE
Scenarios
Engineering Options
A B C
Insignificant
Insignificant
$18 Million
$75,000
Hurricane Barrier at Mystic River entrance. ADDITIONAL FORTIFICATION and elevating the railroad, as well as increased diking to east. Hurricane Barrier at Mystic River entrance. $27-30 Million $100,000
8.6
10.5
FURTHER FORTIFICATION and elevating the railroad, as well as increased diking to east.
$35 Million
$120,000
Seabrook Middle/Elem. School Hampton High School NextEra Nuclear Power Plant
5. Start Doing Something! Implement the Strategies, and Move the Needle off of Zero.
Revetments Sea walls Jetties Dry Flood-proofing Increasing Freeboard Now Elevating Structures Tunnel Plugs Automatic Floodgates Levees
Restoration Wet Flood-proofing Zoning changes Requiring Increased Freeboard Over TimeElevating Structures Buyouts Rolling Easements
City of Long Beach, NY Declines Dunes: Lost Opportunity for a Soft Adaptation
convincing that there is a problem. Citizens want cities, towns and states to get beyond vulnerability studies and to start putting adaptation strategies in place! As a general rule, local action is the level where we are working. Higher levels of government provide research and basic resources that we use (aerial photography, LiDAR, grants for studies), but States and the US Congress are not building free adaptations anymore.
way the cause is immaterial, and will be researched over time at the national and international level. Sea level and surge adaptation is a local effort. Adaptation can and should proceed before there is consensus on the causes and mechanisms behind climate change. Analogy: If you were robbed, you wouldnt wait to get better locks and a burglar alarm, until someone could prove to you the root cause of the robbers criminality. Why is burglary increasing? Unemployment? Drug abuse? Lack of Opportunities for Youth? Lack of Mental Health Treatment? All of the above? Can we ignore burglaries until the causes are determined?
difficult, but no one wants to drown in a flood. Ultimately People and Business Owners want their pocketbooks protected. Appropriations for expensive designs for adaptation strategies (for example, elevating waterfronts or relocating sewage treatment plants) will not happen until there is enough of a social/political/economic consensus on a particular direction to take.