Breakfast Learning Session Theory of Change

25th June 2013 Brian Lamb

The Issue
Contrary to Marxs famous critique that philosophers have only sought to interpret the world not to change it campaigners have too often sought to change the world without first interpreting it.

THEORY OF CHANGE
A theory of change clearly expresses the relationships between actions and hoped for results, and could be described as a roadmap of the strategies and belief systems that make positive change in the lives of individuals and the community.

Theory of Change and Campaign Strategy

Theory of Change is a powerful tool for helping you to decide your overall campaign strategy, test the assumptions of that strategy and coordinate activity across different functions. A Theory of Change is a simple, step-by-step analysis of the anticipated changes that you expect to flow from any set of actions. By describing the inputs you are planning and the expected outcomes of your efforts you can test your strategy and sharpen your thinking about what is possible and how. This can be achieved quite simply but has the capacity to be as complex as you need to account for the environment you are working in.

Logic Model
Theory of Change models build from basic Logic Models. Logic Models form the basis of most project management programmes. Logic models illustrate program components, and creating one helps stakeholders clearly identify outcomes, inputs and activities. They are helpful for breaking down the basic components of a plan and are especially useful where there is a know relationship with an action and its consequence. They often follow a format similar to this;

Logic Model

Logic Model

Theory of Change

Social Theories

Theory of Change
Theories of Change link outcomes and activities to explain HOW and WHY a campaign expects its actions to lead to those changes. It is therefore more complex and rich than logic models and more suited to advocacy campaigns. Advocacy campaigns are complex as they have to select from a number of different potential strategies and make assumptions about why something changes. There are many different ways change can be attempted and a Theory of Change provides a process for testing out assumptions and deciding on what will be bring about the desired change. Campaigns are trying to align research evidence, with the appropriate campaign and advocacy interventions to achieve the influence to secure the change they need.

The benefits of Theory of Change?

TOC models provide a common language and approach for planning and evaluation; Builds the capacity of organisations to think more strategically about their goals; Can be used with stakeholders; Makes implicit assumptions explicit and therefore easier to test and modify in the light of experience; Builds from the actual strategies and activities that campaigners undertake; Keeps focus on the final goal to be achieved and clarity about steps along the way; Provides a framework for developing different scenarios about how change might happen and how to plan for contingencies.

Definitions-whats in a word?
Impact-the ultimate effect on the lives of those you seeking change for Outcomes-significant changes that lead to the final impact Outputs the specific results of work programmes designed to achieve you outcomes Activities-the work you do to achieve those outputs Inputs the resources you deploy to be able to undertake the activities

What are the Theory of Change Steps?

1. Stating a clear aim-the final impact you need your campaign to have; 2. Mapping activities to achieve your campaign aim-usually in reverse order the impact first; 3. Mapping Outcomes and how to get there using so that chains to ensure the links between activities and outcomes are understood and in place; 4. Understanding how social change happens and aligning that with your selected activities-Outcome mapping; 5. Ensuring that Capacity of the organisation to achieve change; 6. Evaluation built into the model.

Change Strategies
1. Large Leaps or Punctuated Equilibrium Theory 2. Coalition Theory or Advocacy Coalition Framework
3. Policy Windows or Agenda Setting

4. Messaging and Frameworks

5. Power Politics or Power Elites Theory 6. Grassroots or Community Organizing Theory

WORKED EXAMPLES

So that Chain

Theory of Change Mapping Strategies

State your strategies-the really key ways by which you hope to bring about the change you are seeking

Outputs

Inputs

State your Activities-the specific work you will undertake to implement the strategies

Describe the outputs from that work you expect to happen as a result.

Outcomes

Describe the outcomes from that work you expect to happen as a result.

Impact

State your final impact here-e.g changes to people lives or the final changes you are seeking

Want more support?

campaigning@ncvo-vol.org.uk

Brian.publicaffairs@gmail.com