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Population genetics probability

Evolutionary Synthesis
Sewall Wright

Haldane were fathers of population genetics and modern evolutionary theory Working in early 1920s, worked out how to Fisher, Wright, and apply Mendels laws in a population context to provide mechanistic explanation for evolutionary change

R.A. Fisher

http://www.ars.usda.gov

J.B.S. Haldane

http://www.york.ac.uk

http://www.ucc.ie/

Population Genetics

Study of heritable variation in assemblages of organisms, and how this is affected by mutation, drift, selection, and gene flow
Mutation

Drift

Diversity
+/Selection

+
Migration

Population Genetics is Important


Disease susceptibility, genetic testing, and personalized medicine Statistical interpretation of forensic DNA evidence Human evolution and cultural history Crop and animal improvement
Traditional breeding Genetic engineering

Conservation plans for plant and animal communities Responses of plant and animal communities to climate change

Mathematical Tools for Population Genetics

Basic algebra 1 1 fe Basic calculus 4Ne 1 1 Basic statistics m He Probability P Pk 1


k 1

PIDsibk

1 1 4 2 2 2 (1 pi ) [ pi ( pi ) ] 4 2 i i i

Population Genetics and Probability Probability is at the core of much of population genetics
Reproduction is a sampling process Effects of mutation, gene flow, selection, and genetic drift must be seen as departures from expectations based on random processes

Example: 1 genetic locus and two alleles in a forest of 20 trees determines color of foliage. Green is dominant.
What proportion of offspring will have white foliage?
: 4 copies : 36 copies

Introduction to Probability
What is the probability of an individual event?
Sample Point Method

What is the probability of 3 heads on 3 tosses of a coin? What is the sample space? What proportion is occupied by 3 heads outcome?

Outcome 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Toss 1 Head Head Head Tail Tail Tail Head Tail

Toss 2 Head Head Tail Head Tail Head Tail Tail

Toss 3 Head Tail Head Head Head Tail Tail Tail

Shorthand HHH HHT HTH THH TTH THT HTT TTT

Defining Sample Space


Defining sample space manually is tedious to impossible Combinations provides a shortcut for determining the sample space
mn rule for number of ways that m elements from one group can be combined with n elements from another

Permutations and Combinations allow caluculation of the number of ways numbers or symbols can be arranged
Does the order of elements matter?
If not, then use a combination If order matters, use a permutation

Combining Probabilities Independence and conditional probability


Does probability of one event depend on the probability of another?

Intersection and union of events


Probability of A AND B
Intersection

Probability of A OR B
Union

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