An immision data based system of particulate matter levels modeling dedicated to implementation by local authorities

Jacek Bzdak, Mieczysaw Sowioski, Bronisaw Sowioski, Marek Lasiewicz, Magdalena Kola, Jacek Szlachciak

Topic of this presentation

Development of modeling tools that can be implemented at local scale. Brief introduction to air pollution problem. Characteristics of local authorities and problems that can occur when implementing models that work on local scale. Developed models and their usage. System for models.

AIR POLLUTION

Why air pollution needs to be managed

Its a real health threat. It is possible to minimalize its impact on people. It costs!
Average live time shortening (in months) due to exposition to anthropogenic Particle Matter. [WHO]

Particulate Matter
Particulate Matter (PM) is one kind of air pollutant. It is composed from fine particles of dust (solid or fluid) that are suspended in the air for long periods of time. PM is separated into to fractions. Most notably PM10 and PM2,5 (particles with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 10 and 2,5). PM is measured by determining mass of suspended matter in given volume of air 3 .

Modelling PM
PM limit values are commonly exceeded even in localites that have no big industry. Often level for no other pollutant is exceeded in these localities. Because of high uncertainty of measured levels modeling is harder (and if DMM model works for PM, it will almost certainly work for other pollutant better). There are some unique possible uses for PM models (mostly in measurement support). There are still few monitoring points for PM2,5.

Air pollution management

Air pollution monitoring. Informing the public. Long term measures decreasing emission
replacing home stoves, building better roads, closing town for traffic.

Short term measures.

Informing the public. Temporarily closing down roads for traffic. Cleaning streets from dust

Air pollution monitoring

Air pollution monitoring is regulated by directive 2008/50/EC on ambient air quality and cleaner air for Europe. Air pollution is being monitored through Europe by network of manual and automatic stations. In Poland VIEPs are responsible for monitoring.

PM MODELING FOR LOCAL AUTHORITIES

CTM versus DMM

Chemical Transport Models Work by calculating propagation and chemical transformations of emited pollutants and its precursors. Work using estimated emission data. Needs to be deployed on large area (pollutants can travel from distant sources). Much more applications. Data Mining Models
Work by finding patterns in archival data, and tries to apply these patterns to current data (this process is called training) Work using imision (data collected by monitoring stations). Can be deployed for single monitoring station. Are more accurate

Model applications
Short term prediction of pollutant levels
Serve as a trigger to preemptively use short term measures, and as a warning for local people.

Predicting effects long term measures Measurement assistance

Filling gaps in measurements; increasing measurement accuracy; decreasing measurements costs;

SYSTEM FOR DMMS

System for DMMs

DMMs need aggregated data from many different sources (weather parametrs, weather forecasts, pollutant levels) This data must also be transformed. This data needs to be aggregated and stored in in house database. Database must be very flexible.

Database schema

ANN models
To perform actual modelling we use Artifical Neural Networks (ANN). To enchance ANN performance we use such techniques as wavelet transform (please see positions in the bibliography for details).

DMM model usage

DEVELOPED MODELS

Short term prediction

We use neural networks to create short term (one day, two days) forecasts od PM levels. These models need numerical weather forecast. It is discussed in depth on our poster (for details visit it at incoming poster session).

Spatial exrapolation
We can extrapolate PM levels on station using PM levels on nearby stations and weather parameters on all stations. Distance between these stations can be large (up to about 100km). We need some PM level data on extrapolated station (this data is used to create DMM model).

Example time series of both extrapolated and measured data for Zyrardow station.

Amount of data needed to train model

We worked on two year datasets. Fill factor is amount of data used in training to whole dataset: =
.

To train model we need from 60 to 120 data points.

Fill Factor

Uses of this model

This model can support measurements:
Fill gaps in data. Provide on line estimates for gravimetric stations.

Conclusions
To enable local governments to manage pollutant levels we need to provide them with proper tools (ie. models). DMMs are suitable for small scale local deployment. Since each DMM has a very narrow application --- single local government would use many DMMs, hence the need of a system that would hold them.

Bibliography
[WHO] [FINLAND] [ZABRZE] [PREDICTOR]

Thank you for your attention